Backdoc Tuesday Night Post - 1/27/2015

[ronscarpa]

Backdoc Tuesday Night Post - 1/27/2015

 

FIRST, A HUGE THANKS TO WALKINGSTICK FOR HIS CONTINUED SKILL AT BEING THE BEST NEWS HOUND IN THE DINAR WORLD PERIOD!

AS I'VE MENTIONED BEFORE, THE STRONG DOLLAR TRAIN IS ROLLING DOWN THE TRACKS LOOKING TO COLLIDE WITH TRAIN NUMBER 2 QE IN EUROPE!

TODAY WE SEE CONFIRMATION OF MY RECENT POSTS! WITH MANY BIG COMPANIES LIKE MICROSOFT BEGINNING TO MISS EARNINGS, GROWTH LOOKS TO BE A FOREGONE CONCLUSION AT THE MOMENT! THE FOLLOWING ARTICLE CLEARLY STATES CHINAS' CHANGE FROM A MONEY PRINTING OR DEBASING POLICY TO ONE OF HAVING TO support ITS' CURRENCY AS MONEY FLOWS ARE LEAVING THE COUNTRY!

AS I MENTIONED THE LOWER BLACK GOLD GOES THE STRONGER THE DOLLAR WILL GO. IN ADDITION, THE EU QE IS ACCELERATING THE DOLLARS STRENGTH. THESE TWO TRAINS ARE IN A COLLISION COURSE THAT WON'T END WELL!

AS THE DOLLAR CLIMBS IT MAKES THE STOCK MARKET OVERVALUED EVEN IF IT DOESN'T GO UP. GOLD IS IN THE SAME SITUATION. EARNINGS WOULD HAVE TO ACCELERATE UPWARD WHICH WE CALL GROWTH. SO WHERE IS THE GROWTH? NADA!! WHAT WE ARE NOW SEEING IS EARNING MISSES! THIS MEANS ONLY ONE THING IT MUST REPRICE LOWER!! 

WHY DO I BRING THIS UP? MAYBE JUST MAYBE WE ARE IN WAITING FOR THE MARKET TO REACH THIS CRISIS POINT BEFORE A SO CALLED BAILOUT RAISES ITS' HEAD. COUNTRIES ARE SITTING ON CURRENCY SWAPS PRESENTLY THAT ARE VALUED AT 1166 ! WHEN THIS REPRICING EVENT UNWINDS WE WILL SEE THE FOLLOWING! TREASURIES THAT HOLD DINAR WILL OVERNIGHT FIND SIGNIFICANT VALUE TO AID THEIR FAILING BALANCE SHEETS! "WHEN THINGS ARE THE WORST THEY ARE THE BEST"

CURRENCIES AROUND THE WORLD ARE BECOMING DE-STABILIZED! THESE TWO TRAINS WILL COLLIDE SOON AND THERE WILL BE CARNAGE ! WHAT YOU AND I HOPE IS THAT WE WILL SEE A RATE SOON TO STABILIZE MARKETS AND COUNTRIES CURRENCIES!

AS I MENTIONED EARLIER, RUSSIA IS BURNING CASH TO support ITS RUBLE WHILE IT GOES TO JUNK. CHINA NOW CLEARLY IS DOING THE SAME AS THEY ADMIT THEY AREN'T THE LARGEST ECONOMY SINCE THE OVERSTATED THEIR GDP NUMBERS! I USED THE TERM THAT THEY WOULD BEGIN A SLOW BLEED NOW OF THEIR RESERVES, IT APPEARS THAT IS NOW UNDERWAY!

IF WE SEE A IR BEFORE THESE TWO TRAINS COLLIDE SIMPLY WAIT TO MAKE YOUR BIGGER MOVES IN THE BANKING AND INVESTMENT WORLD! WE ARE ON A COLLISION COURSE! IN TECHNICAL TERMS THE MARKET IS CLOSE TO FORMING A TECHNICAL PATTERN THAT SHOULD BEGIN TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT MOVE TO THE DOWNSIDE!

I THINK GOLD WILL HOLD OUT A WHILE LONGER BEFORE GIVING UP SOME! EVEN IF GOLD STAYS WHERE IT IS NOW IT WOULD BE LIKE GOING UP AS THE DOLLAR CLIMBS HIGHER! IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR IT TO HOLD AROUND WHERE IT IS IF THE DOLLAR KEEPS RISING! 

IN THE NEXT 5 WEEKS AS THE EXPERTS THINK, WE MAY FIND A NEW BOTTOM IN THE STOCK MARKETS WHILE BLACK GOLD HOPEFULLY FINDS ITS BOTTOM! 

HERE IS MY THOUGHT, THE TIMING OF THE IR I THINK IS CORRELATED TO THIS COLLISION! 

COUNTRIES WITHIN DAYS OR WEEKS WILL BEGIN BLOWING UP FINANCIALLY IN SOME WAY, THERE IS NO ESCAPE UNLESS THE TWO MONETARY POLICIES SOMEHOW CHANGE!

THIS IS CERTAINLY NOT NEGATIVE TO ME, ITS EXCITING BECAUSE CHANGE IS COMING AND THE DINAR IS THE SOLUTION TO THIS TRAIN WRECK IN MORE WAYS THAN ONE! 

ALSO, I MENTIONED THAT WE WILL LIKELY SEE CHINA RESTATE ITS GOLD RESERVES SOON AND WANT TO ENTER THE MULTILATERAL SYSTEM IN THE SDR FORMAT! WALKINGSTICK PRESENTED A GREAT ARTICLE ON THIS TODAY!

VERY EXCITING TIMES TODAY WITH THE DOW BEGINNING TO WAVER NOW. BASED ON HOW FAR BLACK GOLD HAS DROPPED AND OTHER COMMODITIES I EXPECT SOMEWHERE AROUND 30 TO 50% CORRECTION IN EQUITIES! BONDS COULD TURN UGLY AS WELL.

GLAD I'M SHORT THIS MARKET! LOL 

8@8, DOC

-------------------------------------------------

China Switches to Supporting Yuan as Outflows Mount: Currencies

by Justina Lee
6:51 PM CST 
January 25, 2015

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(Bloomberg) -- Managing the yuan is turning into a different game for China’s policy makers these days. 

After more than a decade of curbing the currency’s gains to help turn the nation into a manufacturing colossus, there are signs the People’s Bank of China is now propping up the yuan to stem an exodus of capital that’s threatening the economy. 

A gauge of capital flows on the PBOC’s balance sheet fell by the most since 2003 last month in a sign it’s selling foreign currency, while the yuan’s reference rate set daily by policy makers is at its strongest-ever level compared with the market price. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said today the nation would implement measures to manage the economy more effectively and boost competition. 

“Everyone thought the movie would never end, and suddenly it ended, so everyone is hurrying to leave,” Kevin Lai, an economist at Daiwa Capital Markets in Hong Kong, said by phone on Jan. 22. “The authorities need to think of a way to keep the audience in the theater” as the economy slows, he said. 

China amassed a world-leading $4 trillion of foreign-exchange reserves by mid-2014 as exports surged and capital flowed in, attracted by a currency that strengthened for four consecutive years. Now that the yuan’s gains are faltering, the PBOC is trying to prevent its declines from turning into a rout that could deter investment just as the economy suffers its slowest growth in 24 years.

Yuan Turnaround 
The yuan’s onshore rate fell to as low as 6.2569 per dollar today, the weakest level since June, before paring its slide to 6.2542. That’s down from a two-decade high of 6.0406 set on Jan. 14, 2014. China’s currency retreated 2.4 percent last year, after climbing 12.8 percent in the previous four years. 

The declines were partly engineered by the PBOC, which lowered its daily reference rate by 0.9 percent in the first half of 2014 to prevent the currency from becoming a one-way appreciation bet for speculators. The central bank allows the yuan to trade 2 percent either side of that daily rate. 

Since then, the PBOC has raised the reference rate in each of the past five months, suggesting policy makers judged the declines had gone too far. The yuan was as much as 1.89 percent below the daily fixing set by the central bank on Monday, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Capital Flight 
Evidence of capital outflows shows how China is moving beyond using the reference rate to prop up the currency, and also reflects how money is leaving the nation as growth slows. 

A key barometer of foreign-exchange flows on the central bank’s balance sheet, known as its yuan positions, fell 128.9 billion yuan ($21 billion) in December from a month earlier, the most since 2003, PBOC data show. China’s foreign-exchange reserves dropped to $3.84 trillion as of December, from an all-time high of $3.99 trillion in June. 

These data “suggest there’s been net dollar demand in the onshore foreign-exchange market which the authorities have met,” Robert Minikin, the London-based head of Asian currency research at Standard Chartered Plc, said by phone on Jan. 21. 

Trade Flows 
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says China’s official errors and omissions data -- figures used by nations to balance cross-border flows when records don’t match -- point to a record $63 billion leaving the country in the third quarter of 2014. Bank of America Corp. estimates $120 billion of capital flowed out of China in the final quarter of last year. 

The PBOC didn’t respond to a fax seeking comment on outflows and its intervention policy. 
Curbing the yuan’s losses has become critical since growth slowed to 7.4 percent last year, the worst performance since 1990. 

In an address to Chinese economists today, Premier Li acknowledged the difficulties faced by the nation and said the authorities would adopt targeted measures to manage the economy and promote emerging industries. 

The PBOC surprised investors by cutting interest rates in November for the first time since 2012 to give the world’s second-largest economy a lift, though that also reduces the return generated by yuan assets and undermines the currency. 

The yield premium on China’s five-year government bonds over equivalent U.S. debt has narrowed to 2 percentage points, from 3.19 percentage points in November 2013, the widest difference in data compiled by Bloomberg since 2007. 

Boosting Prestige 
A stronger exchange rate would also boost the yuan’s prestige as China seeks to promote it as a currency of global commerce. In the past 12 months, the Asian nation has appointed yuan-clearing banks in cities from London and Frankfurt to Singapore. 

An appreciating currency may also reassure U.S. officials who have accused the PBOC of debasing the yuan for economic advantage. 

“If there are signs of significant depreciation pressure, the PBOC will intervene,” Kewei Yang, the head of Asia-Pacific rates strategy at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong, said by phone on Jan. 16. “The risk of capital outflows weighs more in importance than temporary support for exports from a weak currency.” 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-26/china-switches-to-supporting-yuan-as-outflows-mount-currencies

 

 

[yendor]

In the rumor section , thus it is total B.S. !

[drj]

Apple reported record earnings today.  The record sales where in China.  Microsoft is down because Apple is crushing it.   I agree with Yendor, this should be in the Rumor Section.  

[The Machine]

In the rumor section , thus it is total B.S. !

It's not in the rumor section.....

[billio0]

Thanks ronscarpa for the post.

 

While this one is way over my head, I usually enjoy reading what Backdoc has to say since he is involved in an area of investing I have no experience in.

 

What I don't understand is why there seems to be those here who prefer to complain about these kind of posts when there is nothing compelling them to either read them, or agree with the content. I understand this to be the OPINIONS, PERSPECTIVES, AND YOUR TWO CENTS section of this website, but I guess because the post is not your own opinion, but that of someone else, it is perfect fodder for attack, which is sad.

 

I have had my fill of participating in  "squirting" contests in the past with those here who happen to disagree with my own opinions, and decided to take a break from posting any comment. Yet, it seems nothing here ever changes,and the spoil-sports continue to prevail.

 

That said, please keep the posts coming. I certainly appreciate them, even when I don't agree with them and/or understand them. I believe that is what this place is all about.

 

Billio0

[temperament5]

Thank you for the post.  There are actually some good points made in the article which coincide with what is going on with the global economy.