Doc vs Tlar - Two Opposing RV Outcome Viewpoints !

[DinarThug]

CNN. Broadcasting While One Of The Seven Dwarfs Unwittingly Duels With The Hardest Drinking Guru Since Possum !

Geezer: Hey all – here is a post from Doc who is a very level headed, conservative analyst of the dinar. I have read his stuff over the years and he seems very credible. Just something to chew on as we pass the time…..

Doc: Our time table continues as last reported in that do not expect any significant currency appreciation through end of this year at a minimum. We know this is contrary to most hopeium dealers' opinions but simply stated the fundamentals are just not in place to support appreciation any time soon.

Our insiders continue to support this view. Remember a strong currency needs both fundamental laws in place and a STABLE government neither of which exists currently.

We do believe the government issue will eventually resolve itself. ISIS continues to play on the Sunni vs Shiite hatred emotion. They will continue to stir the masses as long as the the central government continues to favor one bloc over the other.

~~~

If Iraq truly can form a inclusive government then much of the ISIS support will quickly fade with the general population. Unfortunately this is a monumental task in their culture and one in which Maliki failed miserably.

As one of our ME colleges put it this culture has existed for thousands of years so don't be shocked if it takes more than a few years to change the culture.

What we expect to see in the next 3-6 months is more of the same. Iraq is notorious for not meeting timelines and commitments and we expect this to continue. The naming of a PM and formation of a new government will take longer than is being reported.

Once this happens it will take some time for it to become fully functional and get on with the business of government. We are hopeful at this point the masses will see a more inclusive philosophy and some sense of stability will be obtained.

It is most likely the CBI will not entertain any thought of currency reform until these events occur. We suggest everyone step back, take your emotions out of the picture and look at the reality of the situation.

Only with that view will you be able to see through all the hopeium smoke and you will see the reality of the current situation. We report, you decide. Doc

Tlar’s Comments: "What we expect to see in the next 3-6 months is more of the same. Iraq is notorious for not meeting timelines and commitments and we expect this to continue." - DOC

He is going against the momentum of this new government. He is making a basic assumption that 3-6 months from now they still will not have formed the government.

If this turns out to be true, then he will be proven right about his assumption on the currency because Turki has said he wants to see the government issue settled before he will pull the trigger on currency reform.

He predicates this assumption on the currency based on his assumption of the government not being formed. So although his second assumption on the currency is based on his first assumption the government not being formed, it will be certainly easy to judge his prowess on these predictions.

Personally I think he is nuts and believe this government will have selected and nominated its PM as they themselves have said, by Monday. If they do this both his assumptions on the currency and the government will have been blown out of the water.

Turki has said he is ready, willing and able to make the monetary change. The CBI has printed the smalls and they are juswt waiting the go ahead which if we believe Turki is the government issue "settled".

Circulating currency is at an all time low and Iraq has essentially dollarized.

The dinars that are still circulating are more protected than they have ever been as far as potential counterfeiting goes as the new 250, 500 and 1000 are being replaced as they come into the banks and have been being replaced since the beginning of the year.

The banks are mostly hooked up internationally and the controls on money laundering along with accountability are in place. They are IMF article VIII compliant and the WTO just needs to stamp the document approving ascension Turki will follow the government’s lead.

When the government is seated, Turki will release the currency as he himself has stated.

So to answer DOCs insult where he calls anyone who says it will be sooner and the government will be in place in another week by suggesting we are all smoking hopium, I say to you DOC, either you are not paying attention to the facts on the ground or you are in left field.

You might as well join the Maliki will get a third term group because you are suggesting he will still be here in 3-6 months and that the government will not be formed.

This counters every news article out there. UG. Where do guys like this get their news articles to call such a miss on what's going on.

I would love to have DOC come here and debate him in this forum but I am afraid by the time somebody passes this through to him, the government will be formed. tlar

[sandfly]

OK CLOWN

[DinarThug]

I would love to have DOC come here and debate him in this forum - tlar

Tlar Should Be Careful About What U Ask For !

The Next Time Doc Will Be Bringing Sleepy, Happy, Sneezy, Dopey, Grumpy And Bashful !

[dinarbeleiver]

Tlar Should Be Careful About What U Ask For ! :blink:The Next Time Doc Will Be Bringing Sleepy, Happy, Sneezy, Dopey, Grumpy And Bashful ! :D

who is the doc? Sounds like a possible lopster. I'm with tlar on this one.

[rockfl9]

Just putting a name in place does not mean there is a working organization. It will take a few months, at least. Doc is making  a realistic observation.  

[skeetdog]

Thanks DT...''WORD''...

[lost one]

Can't yah or nah.....they are both right in some degree.

[10 YEARS LATER]

WELL,I'll be Grumpy on this one - this has gone on FAR too long. The RV could have happened by now if all this sectarian hate & discontent,footdraggin',brinkmanship & shoe throwin'by selfish, greedy poilitcians hadn't gotten in the way.

This has gone way beyond a joke ! I'm disgusted by the whole rotten mess. Of course what would you expect. We taught them well. Look at the world of CRAP the USA is in. Half the worlds on fire and O' goes golfing or fund raising. Quite an example to set for the World, isn' it ?

Hmmm, let's see: Should I watch Mr.Ed on TV or throw in the DVD of the Marx Brothers "A Day at the Races" ?

Keep it Comin' Thug . . . as Crazy as things are in Iraq and elsewhere, I still gotta know what's Happening.

[jcfrag]

I agree with Doc that there has to be baby steps taken before they can run. By the Kurds walking out of this past Parliamentary meeting over the budget, it only proves that indeed the HCL is going to HAVE to be decided upon to settle HUGE differences of perspectives between Baghdad and Kurdistan. They aren't even close to an agreement with the current budget, much less who owns the Kurds oil. So will it be 1. Decide on a "PM", 2. Decide on the HCL, 3. Rework the budget???  or  1. Decide on HCL, 2. Rework the budget, 3. Decide on a "PM"???? One thing is clear, they will have to decide the HCL before they can rework the budget, and the "PM" thingy is secondary to both....... 

 

But if you think about it, all 3 could all be done within a week as we have seen them all come together before in dire situations......

Edited August 10, 2014 by jcfrag

[Caye98]

I read a lot of "assumptions", Tlar may be coming close to setting a new record of dates called for RV (and missed). So while Tlar is entertaining, this "Doc's" opinion is worth as much as anyones.    

[Mammaw]

Its good to see Doc is still around. I like hearing his point of view. It is reasonable and probably right on. Only time will tell.

[DinarThug]

Here's More From The 8th Dwarf - Drunkie ...

Tlar: Masum needs to gut up and do this now. They need also to have arrest warrants ready for the SOL leadership at the same time they nominate the new PM and arrest the leadership as they sit in parliament minutes after the announcement. Then send guys over to pick Maliki up immediately.

A well-orchestrated plan will solve this problem. These threats are getting out of hand. I hope there is somebody in the coalition is smart enough that is planning for the worst.

It is of no wonder that they won't disclose the nominee before the meeting. These guys are desperate, crazy and willing to do anything necessary to stay in power and keep their immunity. When it comes to the PM they just don't know who to threaten yet. tlar

~~~

Masum between the anvil and the hammer withdraw confidence impeachment

August 9, 2014 BAGHDAD - ((eighth day))

Informed sources confirmed that the "infallible being subjected to pressure from a coalition of state law to be designated as the biggest bloc to form a government with a mandate to offset other pressures from the rest of the political blocs, including the Kurds, who refuse to call Nuri al-Maliki for a third term."

The Kurdish source confirms, that "infallible passes hard moments and he knows that any decision taken by al-Maliki will be commissioned devastating consequences."

He adds, "The infallible trying to get out of embarrassment shuttled between Sulaymaniyah and Arbil and Baghdad to make sure the position of the Kurds refusing to give al-Maliki as prime minister and gets the support of them for any emergency, especially since the rest of the parties of the National Alliance and the Union of Forces and head of parliament threatened to resign or not to participate in a government headed by Maliki. "

He continues, "The infallible himself may be forced to resign before the parliament session and return to Kurdistan to escape the ominous threats cited by political parties opposed to the owners, and the pressures of a coalition of state law touched a stumbling block in the Iraqi political Cupboard

Tlar: This is like warning the Pope. "Watch your step if you are interested in the health of your family."

Saturday, 09 August 2014 14: 42 M r/m p

Twilight News/US press report said that the outgoing Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has sent a letter to Ayatollah Sistani, "warns him" from interference in political affairs, Sued only the religious and moral guidance to his imitation and "leave the political arena for his family."

Report siteAl-Monitor, Followed up by "twilight news that Sistani had called on Iraqi leaders not to cling to Office, referring to Maliki's insistence on a third term.

The monitor said that references to Shiites in Najaf, Sistani's supporters, in response to the position of Mr. Mahmoud shahroodi support Al-Maliki, a man of religion, a prominent near the Iranian leadership and historic relationship of the Dawa party, which is headed by Al-Maliki.

The site noted that, in the same context, the Badr and independent the joining blocks within the State of law coalition led by Al-Maliki that they would be inseparable from the coalition if Maliki's insistence on his candidacy, pointing out that this means that the State law will lose the majority within the National Alliance Prime Minister must be chosen from.

The site that the impact of these events, the Al-Maliki sent a text message warning to Sistani's Office, see the monitor from an official in the Office, stating that "I said wryly very tkolina your signs at Friday prayers in the Holy City of Karbala through your representative Abdel Mahdi karbalai, not to hang on to their sites which enemies are interpreted by the public and the political process that we intended the words" sued ", as the Prime Minister elected for two and the leader of the largest bloc and the highest number of votes in the third session to clarify your position and stop interfering in the The political process and choose a Prime Minister, and only the religious and moral guidance for your imitation and leave the political arena for his family. "

He located that Maliki added in his letter that Iraq is going through a critical history of cheerful political, security and cannot in these circumstances to waive duty on "the protection of the unity of Iraq and its people and to defend the rights of elected me and voted for me."

And the political system in Iraq is a parliamentary, not a presidential system, and the number of votes obtained by the candidate doesn't mean anything in his Government positions, but the check is by vote in Parliament.

He said the State of law coalition came within National Alliance at the first meeting of Parliament, which means that the Alliance is the largest bloc for the Prime Minister and not the rule of law, adding that the State law also threatened with partition if Maliki's insistence for the nomination.

The site said that all this was accompanied by the publication of news relating to the Islamic Republic of Iran has called for the resignation of Maliki's explicit support for Sistani's position, adding that these events accelerated led to angry Al-Maliki where he feels things are going quickly against wishing to get a third term.

A site that Al-Maliki showed his anger at his weekly Wednesday, warning any foreign attempts to interfere in the selection of the next Prime Minister, said that this is a challenge for the political and constitutional process, threatening that any unconstitutional attempt to choose the Prime Minister will open the "hell" of the country.

The website concluded his report by saying that the speech is the latest attempt to Maliki to intimidate violators of fallout removal from power, it is quite a realistic threat, where al-Maliki does not have the political and security capacity to cling to power if explicit declaration of refusal against him by Sistani and the Iranian regime.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?from=&to=en&a=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.shafaaq.com%2Fsh2%2Findex.php%2Fnews%2Firaq-news%2F81298-2014-08-09-11-42-42.html

~~ * ~~ * ~~ * ~~

Lojak: This is the meeting that hopefully will project a new PM name..

Blocks heads the National Alliance holding a meeting inside the dome of the parliament headed by al-Jaafari

NB-107649-635432724652405997.jpg

Sunday, 10 August 2014 15:59 Alsumaria News / Baghdad --holding blocks heads the Iraqi National Alliance, Sunday, meeting inside the Dome of the House of Representatives, headed by President of the Alliance, Ibrahim al-Jaafari. follow ..

National Alliance finally presenting the owners versus withdrawal

Squares of liberation / Follow-up

Bader looked blocks and the citizen and the Liberals is confident that the National Alliance will present its candidate for prime minister during the next few hours, where will end deadline given to them by the President of the Republic,

8819.jpg

Deputies said about these blocks that the candidate will necessarily conform to the opinion and specifications of the religious authority, which emphasized that it must be the subject of admissibility national by all parties, in their signals repeated to widespread opposition to the policies of Nuri al-Maliki, leader of a coalition of state law and who clings to his job, threatening Panevrat contract Shiite bloc the largest in Parliament.

Lawmakers said the National Alliance, made a presentation to the owners spend a stint sovereign sites versus withdraw his candidacy to head the government, while confirming the Liberal bloc that al-Maliki looking for assurances not to pursue him legally, noting that the coalition Show "taught within the state of law and await the response."

The MP said the Liberal bloc of the Sadrist movement Tariq Kikhany that the postponement of the parliamentary session to on Monday came as requested by site of some of the blocks of the National Alliance to make room for consensus on the character of the next prime minister and ensure that enjoys admissibility.

"Added Kikhany that" a coalition of state law has not been decided ordered him to launch an alternative candidate for Nouri al-Maliki, which delayed submission of the National Alliance candidate for the position of prime minister, "stressing that" the National Alliance will present its candidate to the President Fuad Masum Sunday

He continued, saying that "the National Alliance candidate would be consistent with the orientations of the religious authority in Najaf that enjoys the admissibility of all political parties and enjoy efficient," noting that "all the blocks of the coalition with the exception of a limited number of supporters of al-Maliki, opposed his candidacy now, in response to the opinion of reference. "

And on the reasons behind the delay in the submission of the National Alliance candidate for prime minister said Kikhany "The rule of law has objections to more than one candidate put forward by the National Alliance for the selection of someone to head the government."

He added that "al-Maliki wants assurances from the leaders of the National Alliance in return for withdrawing his candidacy from the third mandate, not to pursue him legally, as well as give him a sovereign position in the state," pointing out that "the coalition is willing to give him either as vice president or deputy prime minister or a sovereign ministries" .

He added that "al-Maliki and his coalition are studying the National Alliance display and wait for response in the coming hours."

.

Tlar: It is still all good as Masum has declared the NA as the largest block. tlar

noting that "the President of the Republic Fuad Masum, commissioned the National Alliance nominate a candidate to head the next government."

The source, who asked not to be named, said "the candidates for prime minister are Adel Abdul-Mahdi and Ahmed Chalabi and Khodair al and Ibrahim al-Jaafari

[Goldiegirl]

Doc is correct.

 

Tlar Is FOS. His credibility is all gone when he calls someone "nuts'.  Especially someone like Doc.  Really Tlar???...your grasping at straws now.  Pathetic.

[Djorgie]

Hmmmmmm... The only thing out of all these statements that I can completely agree on is that Turki did indeed say that once the government was seated that he would release the moolah so, let's hope that they get a new PM in there SOON and then we will find out if Turki is a man of his word!

[calkid11]

Thank you

[lost one]

I agree with Doc that there has to be baby steps taken before they can run. By the Kurds walking out of this past Parliamentary meeting over the budget, it only proves that indeed the HCL is going to HAVE to be decided upon to settle HUGE differences of perspectives between Baghdad and Kurdistan. They aren't even close to an agreement with the current budget, much less who owns the Kurds oil. So will it be 1. Decide on a "PM", 2. Decide on the HCL, 3. Rework the budget???  or  1. Decide on HCL, 2. Rework the budget, 3. Decide on a "PM"???? One thing is clear, they will have to decide the HCL before they can rework the budget, and the "PM" thingy is secondary to both....... 

 

But if you think about it, all 3 could all be done within a week as we have seen them all come together before in dire situations......

 

Baby steps....they have been baby steps for 10 years...It's time to grow up and maybe join the little league or something...

[countryroads]

The business of government should not stop because of these events. A stagnate government will only cause the country to slid backwards, with more undesirable people trying to influence the government resulting in a complete meltdown.

[jcfrag]

Baby steps....they have been baby steps for 10 years...It's time to grow up and maybe join the little league or something...

Time to put on the "Big Boy Panties" ??? LOL