Adam Montana weekly - July 2, 2014

[Adam Montana]

Good morning everyone!

 

Situation in Iraq remains interesting. It's beginning to appear 

as if the Kurds are going to benefit from the ISIS actions. Here's 

the situation:

 

The Kurdish peoples largely do not like Maliki, and for good 

reason. Maliki has held his position as Prime Minister since 2006 

and has not played fair with the opposing party, doing things like 

withholding funds that should have been distributed to them and 

the like.

 

In recent months, we have heard about the Kurdish Regional Gov't 

bypassing Baghdad and Maliki's stranglehold on funds by selling 

oil direct and collecting the funds independently. This takes Baghdad 

out of the picture and I don't blame them one bit for taking that 

action, although it is technically illegal.

 

Additionally, there is reason to believe that they will soon complete (or 

connect) a second major oil pipeline, which will further enable them to 

export oil directly to Turkey, which further strengthens their ability to 

bypass Baghdad and collect revenue on their own.

 

There is always the random news blip about Kurdistan breaking off 

and becoming their own country, but they have pretty much zero 

outside support for that - neither the US, Russia, China, or any of the

major influences have shown any sign of even considering supporting 

the KRG in seceding… but the fact remains that in the Kurdish areas, 

they fly their own flag and the Flag of Iraq is rarely seen.

 

ISIS is a terrorist group that has the lofty goal of taking over 

Iraq. They began their invasion in the north/northwest areas of 

Iraq, where there is a large Kurdish population. The actual army of 

Iraq is largely controlled by the Shiite (Maliki/Baghdad) powers, and 

they rely heavily on the support of the locals in any situation like this.

 

The local Sunnis had no desire to risk their lives helping Maliki in any 

way at all, so ISIS didn't have much trouble with their push so far. The 

largely Shiite military forces were forced to retreat without the assistance 

of the local peoples, and that is how they have been successful thus far.

 

However, now that they are knocking at Baghdad's door… I don't see 

them making much more progress. Baghdad is a Shiite majority with 

over 9 million people, more than 3X the size of any other city in Iraq, 

and ISIS is simply spread too thin to continue to be more than a small 

nuisance… but that small nuisance may be just what we need to force 

a change in Iraq.

 

I say that for a couple reasons. Here comes the summary:

 

Now that the Shiite military is pushed out of the Kurdish region, 

the KRG actually has more freedom to continue working on the things 

that benefit them, and ultimately they have become more powerful and 

independent as a result of the ISIS insurgency.

 

The elections are at a standstill - the Kurds/Sunnis walked out of the 

most recent Parliament session, where the hope was they would be 

discussing the next Prime Minister and Government.

 

Maliki will hold his seat for a minimum of this month, provided he isn't 

assassinated at some point. Maliki is starting to show some signs of 

worry, using very harsh language in reference to the Kurds. Unfortunately, 

the Sunnis still do not have a strong candidate to replace Maliki so they 

are forced to use stall tactics and basically do nothing that is significant 

to the things we want to see, like strengthen the Iraqi government or make 

progress on the HCL. 

 

Here's the bottom line. Right now we have 2 things going against an RV - 

the stalled elections and Ramadan. But on the other hand, we have one 

thing that is starting to look very positive in the near future - the KRG 

is in a much stronger position and this will force Maliki to either make 

concessions or be pushed out. We all know he doesn't want to be pushed 

out!

 

When he makes the concessions, or is pushed out, Iraq as a country will 

be stronger and it will lead into everything we need to see for them to 

raise the value of their currency… which, by the way, is remaining strong 

in spite of the political, holiday, and ISIS situations.

 

We will not see an RV in July, but I will continue to monitor the situation 

and give my updates on a weekly minimum. Best regards to all of you.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[WheresmyRV?]

Thanks Adam for your insight on all of this. I think if they can form a government and if they can kick Malaki out we are looking good. If they keep stalling though all bets are off for anything happening this year. Just my 2 cents.

Edited July 2, 2014 by WheresmyRV?

[Bunk]

   

[boosterbglee]

Appreciate the honest evaluation of the current situation that changes by the day!  THANKS AGAIN! 

[Man_Kind]

Thanks A !

[SnowGlobe7]

Do the Sunnis have any know view of an increase in the value? Just wondering if they really do not have any politial strength would they rather see a low value since they will not gain politically?

[ckriebs]

AND So we wait.................... and wait.....................

 

Thanks Adam

[Tubbs]

But Tlar said.....

 

 

Have a Great 4th of July 

 

 

B    M !!!

[Thriver]

Thanks Adam! You keep us grounded & I do have a positive outlook!

[Bigchclte]

Thanks Adam for some solid info as to where we are & what we can expect going forward.

[lost one]

THAT'S JUST DUCKY. And yes we wait again, and again.(groundhog day).....please make stop.

[millionaire in training]

Adam did'nt mention anything about the ISX ?

 

I cant believe the articles mention it going live on July 1st and them nothing happening.

 

I thought the world was waiting and watching ?

 

Does anybody know what happened?

 

Please share.

 

                             

[eburt]

Thanks for the update - I see that Iraq is a BIG MESS - It seems like they might be headed to a Civil WAR unless some other country steps in to founce these clowns to get this done and form a government - I hope I am worng but Iraq been dragging their tails long enough - So we wait as always........

[captl1]

Thanks Adam and have a safe and fun 4th!!!!!!!! Hump Day!!!

[securityguy]

Difficult to put all the bits and pieces together we hear day to day. Thanks Adam for bringing it all together in a way we can understand and form a clear picture of where we are.

[Saint]

Adam , again you come in and keep us going in a very positive direction.

[Candy01]

geographer, you hit the nail right on the HEAD, unfortunately!!

 

[calkid11]

Thank you Adam

[RodandStaff]

Thanks for the chat Adam... and Mod's for all y'all do!  Up or down or even sideways y'all keep on keepin' it real and positive... which we really appreciate.  We just gotta keep our heads above water in this "Sticky Wicket" situation and believe it will all turn out alright in the end!!!   

[fred5688]

Sonebody needs to take Maliky out

[umbertino]

AND So we wait.................... and wait.....................

 

Thanks Adam

Geo.. You'll get used to it.... After awhile it doesn't hurt that bad anymore..... Smile.

But Tlar said.....

 

 

Have a Great 4th of July 

 

 

B    M !!!

But but but..... BUTT!

[MANNY99]

With all do respect To Adam.  Ramadan has nothing to do with RV or any change to Monterey policy . Kuwait put new currency in circulation on the first day of Ramadan.

Edited July 2, 2014 by MANNY99

[chess]

Yep.......especially if they can still go around and blow up more mosques during Ramadan!

[Candy01]

I TOTALLY agree with you, fred5688!!

 

:mad:

[stealthwarrior]

Iraq will have to print a new form of currency without Kurdish on it.we hold the currency from 2003.this means another print will put us two prints out.i have a very strong feeling that the notes we have now will become insolvent,making them worthless.it looks to me like it is time to throw in the towel.i know that there are a lot of you guys out there that have a lot of money invested in dinar and don't like what I am saying.i have friends that have many millions of dinar.that is a lot of money tied up in currency.i hate to see anybody lose money on this especially me but this is what my gut is telling me.they waited TOO LONG to RV and now it is biting them in the ass and we will fall with them.they could have RV'ED right out of CHAPTER 7 but they were too cheap to do it.they didn't want others to benefit.I just knew SOMETHING bad was going to happen if they didn't rv and it HAS.