Adam Montana weekly - June 25, 2014

[Adam Montana]

Good morning everyone!

 

25th of June, 2014 - the situation in Iraq isn't one of peace 

and tranquility just yet, but I get the feeling things are coming 

to a head and it's not turning out that bad. Quite frankly, I feel 

that if things were to take a drastic turn for the worst we would 

be seeing it by now.

 

So here's the current scoop. ISIL is holding on and making waves 

still, but it's starting to look like they are stretching themselves 

thin and that's never a good thing for an attacking party. Jordan 

is aligning forces with Iraq, and it makes sense for them to do so 

because if they allow Iraq to fall victim to these attacks, they are 

not too far from suffering the same fate. Other countries (such as 

the US) are being slow to join, but it's getting apparent that Iraq 

will get some help sooner or later, and likely before anything can 

happen that would destroy Iraq's recent progress.

 

Maliki is feeling some heat, and if you read the sensationalist 

mainstream rags like the WSJ you might get the feeling that he is 

on his way out… but when you really dig down, you start to realize 

that there isn't a great candidate to replace him. In fact, the National 

Coalition is still "discussing" who to promote.

Link: http://iqd.me/l/w11u

 

Today may be the last day they have to get their act together:

http://iqd.me/l/w11v

 

Now, don't get me wrong - I do NOT like Maliki, he's simply the 

"evil you know" and lots of times the "evil you know" is going to be 

better than the replacement. 

 

I have never been a fan of his leadership style or policies, but you 

have to agree with one of these statements:

 

1. Iraq has made progress in part thanks to Maliki.

 

2. Iraq has made progress in spite of Maliki.

 

No matter which one of those statements you lean towards, the fact 

remains: Iraq has made progress.

 

I think it's reasonable to say that Maliki isn't the problem or the answer, 

and again - Iraq has made amazing progress in the last years. My point is 

simply this: It doesn't matter if Maliki or some other talking head is in the 

Prime Minister seat, Iraq is going to overcome this most recent setback 

and they will continue to move forward.

 

With that said, I will add this… we do know that IF Maliki is to hang onto 

his position, he's going to have to make major concessions to the 

opposing party. Particularly considering the moves being made by the 

KRG right now - the Kurds mean business, and Baghdad is going to be 

forced to get on board or lose out on a LOT of money.

Links: http://iqd.me/l/w11q and http://iqd.me/l/w11r

 

Debt negotiations - I'm sure you're aware that much of Iraq's debt was 

written off in the recent years (Germany, US, Saudi Arabia, China, and 

others). 

Several countries have refused to participate in the debt forgiveness, so 

Ministry of Finance Muwafaq Taha Izz al-Din just announced that they 

will negotiate to exchange "premiums" for the debt in order to get it 

resolved. 

Link: http://iqd.me/l/w11o

 

You would think that with all this madness and chaos and "OMG the 

sky is falling!" going on over there, the currency would be plummeting 

back to the 4000:1 rate it was at a decade ago… but that's not the case.

In fact, the stability was only in question for less than a week, when the 

dinar "wobbled".

Link: http://iqd.me/l/w11t

 

Turki / Central Bank states that despite the current events, the dinar is 

and will remain stable. Not only that, they have the ability to maintain 

any rate without a roof. (That says "float" to me!) 

Link: http://iqd.me/l/w11s

 

(Yes, all this in spite of the "doom and gloom" the lame-stream media 

would have you believe!) 

 

So… what do we take away from all that?

 

I'll sum it up like this: The recent events in Iraq have definitely put a kibosh 

on anything "popping" in the next week or two, but the dust will settle 

and Iraq still has not suffered anything that has or will set them back 

significantly. In fact, despite the turbulence, the exchange rate has remained 

strong and that says a LOT about the future potential for them.

 

I remain positive.

 

======================================

 

Q&A (I skipped the ones I feel were answered in my post above)

 

 

 

Adam, when do you think we will get some straight answers from Iraq concerning things like the election results, who is going to be the prime minister Keeping secrets at this time can only hurt them as the rest of the world doesn;t know where they stand and if they want to align with Iraq or leave it completely alone. As the patience with the dinar investors is running short, I can't help but think that other nations patience is also running short.

 

Agreed

 

I think we'll get some answers shortly.

 

When the US elects a new president nothing gets done for 3 to 6 months. If that is the case in Iraq do you see this going into 2015?

 

If Maliki is pushed out and they actually put someone else in his place, then yes - that's exactly how things will go.

 

 

Adam, I am confused..... so, here is my question:  Do you think these insurgents are a real factor ? And if so then won't all of these other things like the elections , the HCL, the seating of parliament etc., etc., etc., become a moot point if these radicals reach and take over Baghdad leaving this speculation high and dry ?  Is my confusion warranted ?

 

If Iraq is not successful in defeating the insurgents, then you are most likely correct. We will be cashing out at a small loss or maybe breaking even because the entire region will slip into complete chaos.

 

But I don't think that will happen.

 

Good morning Adam,how far out do you think recent events will push the rv out if there will even be an rv.also will I raq have to print new currency without the Kurdish language if Kurdistan breaks away?

 

I think in the next couple weeks we will see a resolution of the elections, progress against the insurgents, and then the focus will be heavy on the HCL.

 

I highly doubt Kurdistan will ever "break away".

 

Hi Adam good morning,

Bumper64 just posted [ a ] video along with a translation.
I have always believed that all the Isis garbage that has been taking place has been either not completely true, propaganda, a deterrent or a way to take your mind away from the real business at hand. Please don't think that I think nothing is happening over there but perhaps it's not all entirely fact.

To me, it's seems like business as usual.
My question is this,
When you see such tragic things being shown with Isis and all the supposed killings, country falling apart etc... And all of a sudden something like this pops out from no where. Do you think that this is a political game of chess that has to be played out before any RV? Or are we once again being led down a path of false speculations by the powers that be?

 

 

===========================================

 

Have a great day everyone. I'll let you know if anything major changes.

 

 

 

 

[nannab]

Goodmorning all. Thank you Adam for the update.

[kcw]

Good morning Adam!!!!!!!!!! Thank you.  I am still having trouble with java   Have a great day!

[RodandStaff]

Niiiiiiccccceeee!!! As always thanks Adam for keepin' it real....come on Boyz, time to "Git-R-Dun"!!! ;o)

[stealthwarrior]

Thank you Adam.i was wondering what your take on recent events were and you responded with logical thought.we all here tend to get a little hyped sometimes and need a level headed assessment.thank you again,brother

[Wiljor]

Good morning Adam,

As always your level headed approach to our interest keeps it real, level, and grounded. Much appreciated

[boosterbglee]

Adam, thanks for your opinion that is without any hype, you are appreciated!   

[sandfly]

THANKS ADAM

[MyLadiesDaddy]

Thanks Adam.

Love your take.

[ckriebs]

Thanks Adam. Till next week.

[calkid11]

Thank you Adam and Mods for all you do.

[429]

Thanks for your input, sir.

Still in it for the long haul.

[WISKY291]

Thanks, Adam.

[AmericaInc]

Thanks, Adam. You do a great job!

[pbtr]

Thanks Adam, it is never easy to take the emotion out of events.  You have done a great job of looking at the facts, keep up the good work!

[eburt]

Thanks Adam - Will continue to wait as always

[Caye98]

Thank you for your review and opinions on current events! 

I / we will be watching Ramadan (beginning Saturday) to see if it in any way affects the fighting in the ME. After all, in a region that touts their "religion" as being the most important reason they do anything, and then Ramadan representing sacrifice and empathy for those who are less fortunate; encouraging actions of generosity and compulsory charity; it could pose quite a dilemma.  

 

Understanding that Ramadan typically has little of importance being implemented, I agree with your earlier comments that this could indeed be a more unique Ramadan in that sense that those in recent history.

 

Peace be upon you   

[Zigs]

If indeed Maliki does stay the Kurds and others are going to have to figure out how to hold his feet to the fire at all times.  They as we know he is real slick on getting out of his promises.

 

I too do not believe the Kurds will separate from Iraq, in fact I believe they have a goal and that is one day to politically maneuver themselves in a leadership role.  Some would say impossible, but the way they have set up and built Kurdistan compared to Iraqs steps to re-build would highly motivate Iraqi's to vote for such a leadership.

[Nadita]

Thank you, Adam the mon

I agree with you

[Saint]

I agree, Adam

[brp19]

It is always nice to hear such a calm in your thought out messages.  Thanks for all you do!

[RicknSaudi]

THANKS ADAM. Although not much of a contributor, you have maintained the most "grounded" Dinar forum that has kept me coming back since your inception.

Remember the 'break-aways' that all seemed to be cheap spin-offs? Are they even still out there? My point is that, when (not IF) this ride is favorably over (and believe me, my expectations have been significantly reduced), I fully expect it will be YOUR site whereby us who have stuck it out will be getting the news we have long awaited.

Keep up the outstanding work friend!
 

[countryroads]

Adam, I just read on the internet that Maliki has refused to form a new government. He's being defiant to the end, or maybe just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

Who knows what goes on in that 'Twilight Zone' between his ears.

[Adam Montana]

Adam, I just read on the internet that Maliki has refused to form a new government. He's being defiant to the end, or maybe just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

Who knows what goes on in that 'Twilight Zone' between his ears.

Politics politics politics.

It's a waste of time to read every single article and put too much weight on any particular one.

I read most of what comes out to keep you all informed... but seriously if there was someone else out there like me, I'd definitely spend my time doing something else

[Texas1]

Good morning Adam!!!!!!!!!! Thank you.  I am still having trouble with java

Try cutting back to cups a day