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Bank Manager ll / Branch Officer Shares - 7/03/2013


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Bank Manager ll / Branch Officer Shares - 7/03/2013

 

Amos 9:13  Been a while since I posted on here :).  Knew we'd have to see Chapter 7 released until a potential RV could take place so glad to be back!  

As some of you may remember, I am a real banker (branch manager II/branch officer) of a local community bank that does have some banks in other states as well.  

I want to again knock down any myths and debunk any crazy talk that hypes up newbies and some veterans alike, while giving my 2c on what I feel (as a banker/business man) what might happen on this ride.  

I do have a bachelor's degree in organizational management (so I've had courses in economics and financial management). I am currently pursuing my Master's degree in business.  

I've worked in banking for ten years, my job responsibilities that pertain to this investment include lending, financial management, and being in the know of what the fed is doing i.e. interest rate changes, etc.  I even recently did a paper on the IQD and why I think Iraq is the next gold mine.  

  As most people do, they giggle...but if you have researched well enough like I had...that giggle turns into a *hand on chin* moment as to say...hmmmm...maybe there is something to this. 

                                             Bank Rumors

 1. "I see the amount on the green scren!"  While many financial institutions do use a "dos" system...it is very hard to see what you are looking at.  There are several codings that may look like "rates."  

I can assure you know one "looks over or sees from a distance" a rate.  Unless you know what you are looking at (an employee) and you are right on top of it...you can't tell what you are looking at.

2. "I have inside sources from the bank!"  Trust me...the banks don't know anything.  WE get our information from the FED regarding interest rates, etc.  I don't think the FED would leak information on a rate change until the day it happens.

3. "The manager pulled me inside his office!"  While I do have a very few customers who are invested and love to talk to them....I'd never "pull someone in my office" to sale the dinar.  Right now it's not recognizable so most banks don't deal with it.  

Now are some bankers going to talk to you about future potential investment opportunities?  Sure!  Most banks need deposit growth so they don't have to borrow money from the fed to lend money to their customers...less expensive to have deposits on hand.

4.  The notorious delarue machines!!!!  I actually have a coin counter and currency counter from Delarue.  Most banks do have these....do you know how long it would take to count a 20K deposit without these machines!!!!  

They do have security check abilities...not sure on the dinar...but we also have blacklights to verify money orders and currency.  So while the myth of these delarue machines being a "great thing" are half true...it has no merit towards the dinar Rv'ing.  

The one story did have some merit previously where the man said the dinar can be verified thru a currency book.  While we don't have one of foreign currencies here.....I do have one for the US id's and old/new currency denoms.  I'm sure international banks do have these...so that part is true...but you could just look that up on the net. 

5. "Bankers are in the know!"  I've actually sat down with my SVP to see if he knew of this investment.  Him and some others don't think it's going to go anywhere.  So to say bankers are in the know isn't true.  

He's very high up and has worked in banking for 50 years....if he doesn't know....then I doubt others do around the state here anyways which he's friends with quite a few higher ups. 

 I will say that there are some bankers though that do feel something is coming out of it.  Just depends on the person, but bankers don't know anything more than you do as far as "intel" goes.

                                   From a Banker/business man perspective on IQD

 I am blessed enough to work around business every day.  I know how business works.  If you look at the IQD as a business deal, then it's easy enough to see we're going to get something out of this deal.  ‘

I do believe that Iraq had a business plan that they've had help with from the UN, USA, and potentially China.  The articles referring to Iraq wanting to be the number one in the Middle east, have the highest oil exports, etc. is a clear indication of a "business plan". 

So what does this have to do with us?  This business plan?  Simple...money.  Let me explain why...energy is something every country needs.  We've tried solar energy (too costly, not enough titanium), water (not everywhere), coal (also a natural resource and can be costly to dig up), so that leads us with oil.  

I hear the argument "Iraq can't depend on oil alone."  While I do agree partially with this statement, I do have to disagree that oil can't make up for several commodities.  Look around you....the world we knew it 10,15,20 years ago is gone. 

Countries have went from being thousands of miles away to being in your backyard (internet, skype, cell phones).  The world is the economy now, not US vs China, or GB vs Germany.  If one fails....we all fail.  

Nations are starting to realize that if they aren't part of the mix...they and their people suffer.  The economy has become global...so Iraq is the best target for oil (especially after they are westernized!!!!, easier to deal with).

  

So slowly we are seeing dictators overthrown, nations coming out of third world nations and joining the modernizing world (india/brazil) and guess what?  They are going to need oil...what does that mean?  DEMAND DEMAND DEMAND....Supply/Demand curve anyone?  

As the world continues to grow...Iraq will be supplying more oil....(look at the article about pipeline to jordan, look at exxon deal article).  What does this mean for our investment is the main question right?

Here is what the world economy plays into Iraq....

 -Nations will come into Iraq (WE are there, China is there, Russia coming (see airport)) increase economic stronghold

-Companies will come...look at Citibank!!! They spend a trillion to come in.  Guys let me tell you...a bank doesn't come in unless they expect to make money.  They don't make money unless they lend...who would they be lending to right now? Exactly!!! They are EXPECTING Iraq to become a power house.

-The world needs Iraq's economy to become stronger, this could be used to swap out a reserve currency used as IQD.  The facts are the USD is not what it use to be (and will decline sharply), and the Euro is failing...who's next?  China?  No, they cheat and will never increase their rate...they'd lose business.\

-Iraq has nowhere to go but up...while I do believe they have 33 trillion in dinar...I don't believe that it is all "working currency".  I believe they will "have it listed" until they go international (WTO) tradeable...then they will cut their losses.  Do I think it's a smokescreen...no not necessarily...

I think right now they are "needing it there because they have no choice"...which is one reason they are using US dollars.  While they are in transition they have to hold onto the currency.  I don't even think they know how much they will need (waiting on float for dinar).

-I do feel they will allow it to free float...works in our favor anyways.  As fast as Iraq's economy is spooling up...the value should increase moderately. 

  

***Bottom line...do I think we'll be overnight millionaires...maybe not...did we make a great investment...oh yeah.  While it maybe a while (2-3 years) before they get to that 1.00 mark....it's worth it.  Chapter 7 was the cake coming out of the oven, HCL will be the confetti, WTO will be the icing, rate change will be the cake cutter.  

Hang in there...remember this is BUSINESS!  All are in it to make money, but timing is key.  God is good, have faith and believe he is working in YOUR favor!

Iraq is an investment Sgt.  Companies are investing their "time and money" this will in turn enrich Iraq's economy.  There is also stock that you can invest in Iraq (which there was an article referring to Bloomberg). 

Also the interest rates you get at Warka are MUCH better than anything you can get in the states.  Right now banks are paying around .75 (5 yr cd) due to the Fed...not wanting consumers to save money (spend for velocity).  So yeah...it is AN INVESTMENT depending on how you play your cards.  Some do all 3....currency, stock, warka.

Here is what the world economy plays into Iraq....

 -Nations will come into Iraq (WE are there, China is there, Russia coming (see airport)) increase economic stronghold

-Companies will come...look at Citibank!!! They spend a trillion to come in.  Guys let me tell you...a bank doesn't come in unless they expect to make money.  They don't make money unless they lend...who would they be lending to right now? Exactly!!! They are EXPECTING Iraq to become a power house.

-The world needs Iraq's economy to become stronger, this could be used to swap out a reserve currency used as IQD.  The facts are the USD is not what it use to be (and will decline sharply), and the Euro is failing...who's next?  China?  No, they cheat and will never increase their rate...they'd lose business.\

-Iraq has nowhere to go but up...while I do believe they have 33 trillion in dinar...I don't believe that it is all "working currency".  I believe they will "have it listed" until they go international (WTO) tradeable...then they will cut their losses.  Do I think it's a smokescreen...no not necessarily...

I think right now they are "needing it there because they have no choice"...which is one reason they are using US dollars.  While they are in transition they have to hold onto the currency.  I don't even think they know how much they will need (waiting on float for dinar).

-I do feel they will allow it to free float...works in our favor anyways.  As fast as Iraq's ecnomy is spooling up...the value should increase moderately. 

  ***Bottom line...do I think we'll be overnight millionaires...maybe not...did we make a great investment...oh yeah.  While it maybe a while (2-3 years) before they get to that 1.00 mark...it's worth it.  

Chapter 7 was the cake coming out of the oven, HCL will be the confetti, WTO will be the icing, rate change will be the cake cutter.  Hang in there...remember this is BUSINESS!  All are in it to make money, but timing is key.  God is good, have faith and believe he is working in YOUR favor!

Iraq is an investment Sgt.  Companies are investing their "time and money" this will in turn enrich Iraq's economy.  There is also stock that you can invest in Iraq (which there was an article referring to Bloomberg).  Also the interest rates you get at Warka are MUCH better than anything you can get in the states. 

Right now banks are paying around .75 (5 yr cd) due to the Fed...not wanting consumers to save money (spend for velocity).  So yeah...it is AN INVESTMENT depending on how you play your cards.  Some do all 3....currency, stock, warka.

Will we be able to use Citibank for Iraqi savings accounts, i. e. directly depositing our dinars in a US Citibank branch to an Iraqi Citibank account?   Thanks.

  **** Since Citibank is a national bank I'd say yes.  There hasn't been an "american" bank in Iraq yet so this will be quite interesting.  To me this was almost as good as the Ch7 news...if banks are coming in to lend money it either means....

A. they expect the citizens to eventually have the ability to pay back loans (very good news, RV :) )......and also B (they expect more companies to start up, come in from America needing lending...also good news...enriching the economy of Iraq which leads to stronger currency)....both work in our favor...

We reiterate:  if you sign ANY document at the bank when you go to exchange your IQD which states that YOU acknowledge it as an INVESTMENT rather than a simple currency exchange,  you will be hammered by the IRS.   Look, we liked the guy's article.  Thanked him for it.... 

But didn't want any of you getting hooked into signing the document the IRS & the Bank would LOVE you to sign stating it was an investment on your part !

Banks do not "report if you are sending in for investment/etc".  Banks report interest earned on interest bearing accounts, interest expense on loans outstanding, and also (CTR's) which can be researched on the internet.  

You can technically trade in dinars with your bank (for a fee...ours is 15.00) and once the bank gets the funds from the other country...it will then be direct deposited to your account.  

The bank does not report on this.  It's up to you and your CPA to get your taxes done correctly.  The bank takes no responsibility in what you do with the money you've received unless it's earning interest which therefore the interest will be reported.  

If you don't report to the IRS that you had capital gains that year...then you are playing risky games.  The IRS can audit you at anytime and will submit a submit a subpoena to the bank in which the bank then has to release your information (statements etc) once a judge signs.  

We all know they are all listening in on us...so do the right thing...get a CPA and go over your information...pay the taxes!  Even if they don't deserve 1c at least you are free from them fining you! 

lol trust me if I knew the date and rate you'd see me not on here looking at articles.  My assumption would be since there have been articles referring to the poor living conditions of Iraq, they are out of Ch 7 now, talks of HCL being in the final draft, Airport potentially being built, pipeline going in, exports up, economy boost ( up 9% I believe?), previous articles about (Iraqis not being able to pull money out of banks, no money supply), Citibank and other major companies going in (look for cell  phones/walmart/ and others), ...

I believe we are getting close to the finish line.  We are still waiting on them to have an internationally recognized currency.  I think the only thing we are waiting on is the ascension to the WTO, once that happens we know Iraq has an idea of what their currency might be worth.  

By then they will also have to have in place their agreement on Tariffs/Trade.  Tariffs were suppose to go into affect I believe this month...haven't seen an article...but this could be a "pre-emptive" move towards WTO.  

Remember, a inspector found that there was a lot more petroleum underground Iraq than first believed.  The world needs cheap oil, Iraq will supply it. I believe that's the reason for Russia wanting to help build an airport.  Many nations in my opinion will want Iraq to ascend to the WTO asap. 

 Has more benefits for them in this way.  While Iraq has been given a green light to work on its own...that still doesn't mean other countries are "not cautious".   

Iraq needs the WTO, kind of like businesses like to have a BBB (Better Business Bureau) rating of an A.  While it doesn't necessarily mean you can't trade...it definitely looks BETTER on paper. 

Kind of like a warranty...you may not need it...but you want it if you are going to buy something expensive right?  You also have to take into light things happening around the world.  Look at the uprisings...these citizens have started getting access to the internet and seeing what other nations such as ourselves have. 

 They are demanding more from their governments or ...else they revolt.  I do believe Iraq has held their citizens down to bring in dinar to reduce the money supply.  I think they've cut the supply short and are having them use US dollars for now.  

Auctions might show some minor signs of change, but I believe when the dinar revalues the Iraqis will want to trade.  Let's be honest, muslims hate us and America...I'm almost 100% positive they don't want to use our currency.  I think after the WTO ascension, a few weeks later you will see the bottom rate (maybe 600 or 500 to 1) then it will be placed on a free float hopefully going up moderately fast. 

...So :) my opinion is hopefully within 6 months.  I think they are moving fast, but there is still work to do.  If the Tariffs and HCl get passed you'll see even more articles come out about a stronger dinar.   

It's like a jigsaw puzzle...things are coming together slowly...but in the end the picture will be there for all to see.  It's like watching a small business keep adding on to their portfolio...

then before you know it...they aren't small anymore...they've gotten huge...i.e. Walmart, Apple...you name it.  What makes this investment a great one is the timing...if it was 10-20 years ago this wouldn't work...but just like the technological boom, industrial boom...

.this is the global economic boom...and Iraq has the right resources and the right investors.  The rate might start off slow...but don't be discouraged.  Many people said the same about Apple and Walmart "it's not going to make any money"...well look at it now. 

 I've started seeing things from Bloomberg, and even our investment officer ( I spoke to after they released ch 7) have started questioning their original ideas.  When you present enough evidence to have investment people from the US change their minds...you're on the right track.  

I also spoke to our VP over cash management and she raised her eyebrows when Citibank went over there.  Guys,  banks don't open branches just anywhere...they are VERY costly.  

Keep patient and remember this isn't a get rich quick scheme...it's an investment in an idea that Iraq will return to their former rate.  Supply/demand, grow the economy, reduce the money supply, political stability=rising rate.  

They can't go down lol...in fact from 2000 to now they've went up from 580.00 per million to 980 per million...some people have already made money therefore...I debunk people who say it's a scam.

 

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