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Adams Wed chat 3-13-2013

VIZIOIRAQI

By VIZIOIRAQI,
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VIZIOIRAQI Newbie

VIZIOIRAQI

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[Adam Montana] official chat NO TYPING

[Adam Montana] morning everyone! First things first, congrats to VIZIO on the new family member!

[Adam Montana] This week I would like to *attempt* to explain some things about Kurdistan... the "devil is in the details", as they say, and the more you know about a subject the easier it is to understand the news surrounding it

[Adam Montana] When we as Iraqi Dinar speculators talk about "Kurdistan" or the HCL, we are actually referring to "Iraqi Kurdistan"

[Adam Montana] Kurdistan itself, however, is actually more of a "region" than a defined country. Kurdistan extends into Turkey and Iran, and is defined more by culture than by actual "lines on a map"

[Adam Montana] This is where it gets tricky....

[Adam Montana] The Kurdistan area in Iraq has constitutional authority to have their own government, and to make their own laws

[Adam Montana] BUT the authority stops when it comes to International matters... that authority, even over the Kurdish region in Iraq, is left to Baghdad

[Adam Montana] Now since "Kurdistan" is actually a region that expands into multiple countries, and the "line on the map" is not exactly defined... obviously the Kurds want to push the line out and the other countries want to push the line in.

[Adam Montana] Herein lies half of the issues that make up our famous "HCL"... depending on where that line is drawn, the Kurds should be entitled to more or less oil revenues.


[Adam Montana] Now that we understand that Iraqi Kurdistan is it's own region, but still part of Iraq, we can address the real issue... who is in charge of the rate of the Iraqi Dinar?

[Adam Montana] IF it was up to the Kurds, or if they even had an equal say in the matter, then we would be in trouble. This is not the case.

[Adam Montana] At the end of the day, the fight for more territory will continue probably forever. But while Iraqi Kurdistan is using the Iraqi Dinar, and while the Central Government in Baghdad has the final say on international matters... "Kurdistan" will be forced to go along with the rate set by the CBI.

[Adam Montana] And that is good for us    

[Adam Montana] ok, hopefully that helps everyone understand how "Kurdistan" works and how the HCL is tied to this in so many ways.

[Adam Montana] Before we get to the weekly questions, I want to quickly point out that we have removed the VIP and OSI specific questions. VIP members, you do NOT need to wait for the weekly chats! If you have a question, post it in the VIP or OSI section. Most of the time you will get an answer within an hour or two from myself or another person that may have already had that question.

[Adam Montana] :twothumbs:

[Adam Montana] kcw, if you please    
[kcw] millionaire in training Hi Adam, My question is... If the HCL is the one thats determining the rate for the RV right? If thats the case whats holding them up. What going on inside the HCL? Thank you

[Adam Montana] Great question, and I appreciate you asking it. This is what prompted me to give the explanation I just did. The HCL does not determine the rate, but it will certainly be considered when the CBI makes that final decision.

[Adam Montana] next please!
[kcw] sandfly adam, what do you think the kurds will do now. Will they shut up are put us holders waiten longer

[Adam Montana] Until the day that the Kurds are able to secede from Iraq, Turkey AND Iran and form their own country, they will always be pushing for more land, more money, etc.

[Adam Montana] That's just the nature of that area, and I don't expect it to change in our lifetime

[Adam Montana] Luckily it is possible for the RV to happen in spite of that :twocents:

[Adam Montana] next please!
[kcw] steveflex7 In regards to the HCL, it feels like we have been close to it being complete for the past few years. With the 2013 budget being approved, has their been more progress on the HCL this year or has it been stagnant since the 2012 budget? Thanks

[Adam Montana] It certainly appears that more progress has been made in regards to the HCL this year than any before. I don't think it is stagnant at all    

[Adam Montana] next please!
[kcw] silas Good morning Adam. I have question which may have already been answered earlier...do not know, but here goes anyway: When cashing in, will it be necessary to show ID to do so? When I exchanged currencies in Dubai, and Mexico both I never had to show ID. If we cash in a relatively small amount, will it be necessary? If not, I would think that would alleviate a lot of concerns concerning IRS notification, taxes, etc. Thanks

[Adam Montana] Any cash transaction over 10k in the US requires you to fill out a finCEN 104 form - and yes, ID is required. We have specific information on how to handle these matters in the VIP section. :twothumbs:

[Adam Montana] next please!
[kcw] Bunk Adam , Any word on when the lower denom's might show up ?? Would that be a precursor to a monetary shift ?? ty .


[Adam Montana] At this time there is no point in introducing lower denoms - once a major rate change is announced, then the lower denoms will be introduced.

[Adam Montana] next please!
[kcw] one2one who determines when the IQD is a world-wide tradeable currency ?---IMF, WTO, UST, C.B.I. ?

[Adam Montana] Another great question. The Dinar already is a world-wide tradable currency - any bank that wishes to trade it can do so. There is no rule that states it is NOT a "tradable" currency... at this time, most banks simply CHOOSE not to trade it. Once the rate goes up, we will obviously see banks changing their policies regarding the Dinar.

[Adam Montana] next please!
[kcw] GT ACE Hi Adam, As the Iwaki's continue to muddle along I can see a new major threat to this investment. I understand that the protection for the DFI ends in May! Since the Iwaki's drag everything to a frazzle do you think that the Iwaki's will manage to RV before the protection expires? If they don't will the Iwaki's be tied up in legal or court battles for years to come and we might as well use our dinar for some other minor but useful application! Also I see that the 2013 budget was passed but how long will they manage to keep it held up before publishing it? Is there any requirement for it to be published in any given time frame or is it just one of those SOON kind of things? Thanks for your input on all of these never ending questions...

[Adam Montana] The DFI protection always ends, and it is always extended. I don't think this year will be any different - plus, it's a great opportunity for Obama to get some good press. "Yay, Savior Obama extends protection by Executive Order. All hail Obama" (or something like that)
[Adam Montana] :lol:

[Adam Montana] next please!
[kcw] Dinarspeccy Adam - what's your best current guesstimate for the RV rate on the IQD and why?

[Adam Montana] hey Dinarspeccy! I actually wrote a detailed explanation of my thoughts on the rate - you can see it here: http://iqd.me/l/rvrate

[Adam Montana] next please!
[kcw] new york kevin Ok Adam: The budget has been passed, yet no one has released any info regarding the r.v. rate, hmmm.That said, the budget is passed, internal Iraqi politicians have compromised, was the rate every really in the busget? Also, what is the delay for Iraq joining the IMF? Let alone appeasing the UNSC foir release from Chapter 7?

[Adam Montana] The budget has passed but I believe it needs to be posted in the Gazzette before it is official. Also, we would not expect to see a rate change in the budget, so that issue is a little irrelevant, other than the fact that it needed to be done to clear the way for future progress.

[Adam Montana] Regarding Chapter 7 and the IMF, it really looks like Chapter 7 is a rubber-stamp away from completion and joining the IMF is as simple as handing in an application and getting the nod of approval. Obviously this will be a simple process once the value of the dinar is raised - why would they be denied with a new high valued currency?

[Adam Montana] next please!
[kcw] Candy01 Hi Adam, Do you think the Dinar will be on a free float when it RVs, hopefully really soon? Thanks Much!

[Adam Montana] Hi Candy, I think I addressed that in my thesis as well... let me check

[Adam Montana] Nope, but I think I addressed it in the "Cash In Guide". You can get that for free at this link: http://dinarnews.net/cashinguide.php

[Adam Montana] next please!
[kcw] vietnam1969 Good morning Adam, staff and other members. I will be at work when this happens but I do have a question for you today. If the Dinar revalues at a 1-1 ratio or even a higher rate, won't Iraq benefit from this no matter what rate it happens to come out at? i.e. if it revalues at a low rate, the CBI will only sell it back to someone at a higher rate, right? Plus the spread will help also. Am I correct on this or do I need to do some more studying on this matter? Thanks

[Adam Montana] Same answer as before - I spent a lot of time answering this in the Cash In Guide and also the Rate Thesis

[Adam Montana] next please!
[kcw] millionaire in training Adam, Wouldnt it be wiser and safer to open a Foreign Currency Account and wait for the rate to rise rather than dealing with the possibility of a currency change? Your thoughts....

[Adam Montana] that's another great question!

[Adam Montana] IF we are able to do that, then yes - that would be a great option to explore. This is one of the options that we are going to approach after the RV with our advisers... you do need to be careful when approaching these matters. Just like moving money in a 401k, if it's not done correctly you can be on the hook for penalties and taxes


[Adam Montana] current rate for federal income tax will put most of us in a 39.6% bracket... you don't want to screw that one up!

[Adam Montana] next please!
[kcw] Iownay83 Do they have to agree on and pass a new HCL every budget year I thought I heard last year that it was done? Thanks for the Chats.

[Adam Montana] no, it was never "done" - some of the other sites out there had gurus that were prematurely calling it "done", but the HCL has not yet been resolved.

[Adam Montana] next please!
[kcw] phlip If the dinar revalued to a US$0.10 per IQD1.00 rate overnight, and it happened before the new lower denomination banknotes were in circulation; how could Iraq possibly maintain the IQD as its official currency since all the Iraqi citizens would surely rush to the nearest bank to exchange all their dinars for USD in order to take advantage of a once in a lifetime, (lottery like) 11,582.24% profit margin?

[Adam Montana] I hate to keep harping on this, but everyone... please take a few minutes to read my rate thesis and my Cash In Guide. I spent considerable time addressing these exact matters, in more depth than I can possibly manage in a chat room.

[Adam Montana] But to answer in a simple manner... why would you trade a currency that is rising (the Iraqi Dinar) for one that is falling (the USD)? As one member just asked a moment ago, it makes more sense to hang onto the currency that has the most chance of continuing to raise
[Adam Montana] :twocents:

[Adam Montana] next please!
[kcw] sandstorm I have a positive, long term outlook and have a question. IF, the m2 data is accurate..we have had roughly eight to nine years of expansionary policy. Once iraq is internationally in the game, could we expect about the same time for contractionary policy to be achieved??...thusly allowing the rate to improve quickly. I tend to think that the cbi will be in no hurry, they can wait us out over years. then if and when the dinar becomes a reserve currency, we could expect rapid improvement of the rate.

[Adam Montana] You make a good point here - the CBI can indeed "wait it out" and they do not need to be in a hurry to do anything.

[Adam Montana] In fact, they have not been in a hurry thus far. However, that does not guarantee or even imply that they will continue to follow that pace. In fact, I would expect exactly the opposite - when they are ready to change the rate, it will happen swiftly and somewhat unexpectedly. :twocents:

[Adam Montana] Ok friends, that's it for today! I hope the chat was informative and fun for you, and I will see you next week or sooner. Hopefully with even better news!

[Adam Montana] Until then.... :tiphat:

[Adam Montana] open floor everyone    

[Adam Montana] nannab hopefully sooner indeed    

[Adam Montana] ok everyone! If I hear anything I'll do a drive by. Have a great day everyone!
 

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Bumper64 Enthusiast

Bumper64

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Adam how do I contact you directly as I have sent numerous e-mails to your office over the last 2 weeks and have had no reply so I hope this method of contact will do the trick.  VIP member

 

Did you send your e-mails to VIP@dinarvets.com

 

Adam and Julie are usually very fast at answering questions!   Also, check to make sure your spam protector is not trashing any replies from dinarvets

 

:twocents: Bump

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Adam Montana Proficient

Adam Montana

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Posted

Bumper is right. Also, I see that you are using a rogers.com email. We can't control what they block.

 

Two things to do:

 

1. Follow these instructions: http://iqd.me/l/whitelist

 

if that doesn't work,

 

2. Switch to gmail. Try again.

 

- Adam

 

P.S. The last email you sent to us was dated 11/23/2012 at 9:43AM. You received a response at 11:30AM the same day.

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tankdude Newbie

tankdude

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Adam is spot on with the Kurdish situation.  I spent almost a year in Kirkuk among the Kurds.  You can basically think of them as being almost a whole different tribe. The whole area is very much still a tribal type of culture.  It does transcend national boundaries in there mind.

 

One thing I will say for the Kurds that I saw while I was there - they are very much businessmen.  They have a very European outlook towards business and finance. (That, and the Peshmurga are some of the better soldiers in area. Maybe not great professionals, but definitley have the warrior spirit. I was glad they were on "our" side when I was there."

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Silverdinar Newbie

Silverdinar

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Thanks Adam for another thoroughly informative chat, esp about the Kurds and Kurdistan region. No wonder they've been fighting like the McKoys and the Martins. Feuding over land has been the longest universal battle since Abraham parted Isaac and Ishmael. The Middle East has always been an element of contention, and the Beat goes on even in Iraq and Kurdistan region.

 

With the budget now passed but not exposed in the Gazette , is the March 22  date still a strong possibility for this Baby to be delivered. Just saying... thanks for anyone who may have some inside insight. Curiosity is getting the best of me........ :shrug:

Edited by Silverdinar
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automag Newbie

automag

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Posted

Your analysis of the big picture on the Kurdistani situation is very informative -Thanks Could you overview the Sunni and Shia situations too?

 

I can tell you a little about it.......Shia and Sunni. They have been fighting each other since the Prophet Mohammed died centuries ago. They are fighting about the line of succession from the prophet to this very day.......The Shia believe they were done wrong when the Sunnis installed a successor and not their choice for assencion to take over from him, (Mohammed). This an open wound that has been going on since that time and as such the Shia and Sunni's have been trying to kill each other ever since......That is an overly simplified explaination but it is such.....it is what it is. Religion gone out of whack and with no end in sight....Nothing to do with God...but everything to do with their religion. To get a more informative understanding all you have to do is google Sunni vs. Shia and WHAM....tons of information about it will be delivered........I have studied it some and I think the whole bunch of them are just ridiculous for killing and destroying each other over an issue that cannot be resolved as it is centuries old and all the offenders and accusers are long gone and buried. I am not muslim so I don't have a qualified opinion other than stop the crap and figure it out or years of strife will just keep on keeping on. Stupid really...but thats just me....Down in Texas we would just sip some beers and work it out or just outright kill each other and finish it and make up a good story.....well at least in the old days we woulda.........Go to google.......the answers are there and you get a better feel for it. Now what you see is the present day battle and the Shia are the majority in Iraq...also Iran. Iraq is roughly 60% Shiite of the population and since Saddam was Sunni he was all over the Shia. Being forced to jump for their Sunni master the Shia harbor deep resentment and fear towards the Sunni. They should be to. On the other hand they should work it out and stop the infighting....but they won't. Hate is so easy. IMO.

 

Saddam wasn't just the ruthless dictator he was a Sunni. Now that the control is in Shia hands they are doing everything they can to thwart Sunni influence in Iraq. They can do so because Maliki is using his position to consolidate all power to himself...but also to the Shia. In the process  he will marganilize the Sunnis and with the Shia he has what they percieve to be the moral high ground. Since the hatred is so personal and since most folks suffered under a bloody Saddam they will support Maliki's repression of the Sunni's. Since the Shia were inferior under Saddams rule the Sunnis find it hard to stomach the Shia's having that control.....thus a really mean and nasty state of affairs exist between the two sects.........This situation is all messed up and having a bloody dictator use the religious strife as a tool to do his bidding made the situation even worse......When a Sunni uses the dictator as reason for his authority for persecution of the Shiite it is just a truly twisted affair.....I studied Saddam and as a dictator IMO didn't care so much about the religion except he could use it as a tool and this man was a follower of Adolph Hitler.....He admired and mimiced Hitler as much as he could...A Sunni dictator who was a Nazi.....God help them all......But he had a huge and negative effect on the entire Shia vs Sunni issue and it weren't good at all.......This is a very complicated affair and if you start now you to will learn this and it will only take you years just to begin to understand the Sunni vs Shia issue in Iraq......Good luck........Oh yeah. Don't forget to study Iran's Shia dominated goverment as well. They to are directly involved and they are different from the Iraqi's. But those little bitty differences cost the Iranians one million casulties during their war with Saddam.

 

OK....go ahead.....You have a test on Tuesday......So you better get started now.............LOL. Thanks Adam for the chat.

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RodandStaff Rookie

RodandStaff

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Thanks Adam... way to put the Kurdish situation in perspective... or shall we say the "Kurdexans"???  :rolleyes: 

Wonder what that would look like??? ... maybe something like this!   ;) 

5595173560_eabdf72d66.jpg

 

Thanks Viz for posting... good job ya'll... and much appreciated!! ;) 

 

Come On RV Baby!!!  B) 

Edited by RodandStaff
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Sitkadoc Newbie

Sitkadoc

Posted
Posted

Thanks for the chat Adam and all other contributors.  I am becoming increasingly philosophical about this speculative adventure.  While I hope to to better than just break even (or worse, lose) I have gained in so many other ways through these chats, questions, etc.  Quite a learning experience, upon which no real "price" can be placed.  Thanks all!

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