carlablum

Economist RV Explanation Part I and II

187 posts in this topic

I am a novice to this Dinar investment and share everyones excitement. I keep hearing about all this redenomination stuff and that larger dinar denominations might go away. I currently hold all 25,000 bills. Is that bad??

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am a novice to this Dinar investment and share everyones excitement. I keep hearing about all this redenomination stuff and that larger dinar denominations might go away. I currently hold all 25,000 bills. Is that bad??

I think this thread is too old for you to get many responses. Try the RV/Revalue Thread.

For what It's worth, no one really knows what they will do with the current currency. Many here will tell you they know for sure that it will either revalue at equal to a U.S Dollar or more and that you can exchange the 25,000 notes at your local bank, but the truth is they do NOT know.

It may get lopped, meaning they redenominate the currency so that your 25,000 note would be worth one dollar. If that happens, it is unlikely that you will make a thousand fold return like some here think they will.

I believe, based on everything I have read, that the Iraqi economy and its oil are sufficient for between 10-100 times the present value of around $25 Billion. That means your 25,000 notes might come out being worth between $250 and $2,500 each. That's IF we can even cash them in from the U.S. Until I see U.S. dollars in my account after an exchange at my bank, I will remain healthily skeptical.

Best Regards

-2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Economist RV Explantion � Part II

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(5) Before discussing the planned process of how currency exchange would take plan after the IQD was released as an international tradeable currency, he asked if I remembered my economics 101 and what the real purpose of currency is? Yes teacher I replied, it�s a medium of exchange that facilitates the orderly distribution of goods and services among individuals, companies, country�s etc. The often used example, is the use of currency allows an automobile dealer to exchange a new mustang GT (composed of many diverse parts each with its own individual market value) for the cash down payment + bank financing check of a proud new owner, and each has received equal market value at the moment of exchange.

This is an important concept because the value of a particular currency may be defined by the value of what the currency can be exchanged for, instead of the usual underlying economic indicators.

The complete discussion was rather lengthy so here�s the executive summary of how the exchange should work with IQD owned by a US speculator:

(1) IQD is released internationally with an exchange rate of $1 USD = 1 IQD

(2) IQD is exchanged by Mr. & Mrs. X at Bank Y. Their exchange value is credited to their designated financial account, Bank Y forwards the IQD currency to the Federal Reserve and Bank Y�s account is credited at the bank private exchange rate. Yes, the banks will have a private rate and then they will add their profit spread to come up with their public rate. By law this bank spread could be as high as 8%, but it will be a competitive marketplace and the banks know investors will shop around. There is a possibility that there might even be a three rate structure (i.e. Treasury Rate � Bank Private Rate � Bank Public Rate) imposed, but he had no input on that subject.

(3) The Federal Reserve adds the value of the exchanged IQD to their foreign currency reserve accounts and destroys the actual physical currency under agreement with the CBI, which serves to reduce the total IQD physical currency in circulation. This build up of the foreign currency reserve accounts serves to strengthen the USD in the marketplace, because heretofore the US has never held significant foreign currency reserves, because there wasn�t any country whose currency was perceived as being equal to or stronger than the USD. The IQD with it�s commodity (oil+others) base, potential for agriculture growth and aggressive private development growth, has the capability to become the most valuable currency in the world in the 10 years after it�s revaluation and approval as an internationally recognized currency. Other countries have lots of oil, but they can�t feed themselves, they operate under a monarchy or religious tribunal and they have no private development system in place.

(4) Mr. & Mrs. X tithe to their church, local charity etc. which stimulates activity in that sector. They pay off their debts, making currency available for re-lending by their creditors. They buy a new house and car which stimulates their local economy and set up a conservative investment portfolio which adds capital to the investment markets. They also pay their estimated taxes which increases the cash flow to the US Treasury.

(5) The Federal Reserve under a controlled redemption plan supervised by the IMF, will use it�s foreign currency reserve IQD account to buy oil for the national strategic reserve, DOD reserves, other country reserves as part of international support agreements or resell it to private oil companies etc.

This gives the Federal Reserve a powerful market force capability to control the supply/price of imported oil which has far-reaching economic and national security implications.

The economics of this scenario look like this, using the exchange of a 10,000 IQD Note with a two-tier 2% bank exchange spread as an example:

(1) Mr. & Mrs. X get $9,800 credited to their non-interest bearing checking account.

(2) Bank Y gets a $10,000 credit to its Federal Reserve account, and by adding the $200 profit to their capital account, allows them to increase their lending cap by $2,000 under the 10% fractional banking model.

(3) The Treasury gets $3,500 in estimated taxes in the quarter after the exchange, because Mr. & Mrs. X are now in the �rich� category and get to enjoy the 35% tax bracket. This lowers the net cost of the IQD exchange to the US financial system to $6,500 USD (i.e. $10,000 out � $3,500 in).

(4) The Fed�s designated agent, at some point, orders $10,000 worth of oil from Iraq. Payment will consist of a 10,000 transfer from the Fed�s foreign currency reserve IQD account to the IRAQ Oil payment account at the CBI. Even though the world spot price of oil is defined in terms of USD, the actual transaction may take place in any internationally recognized currency agreed to by the parties. For example, Iran only accepts Yen from Japan for their oil orders, because they don�t want USD in their foreign currency reserves.

(5) The $10,000 order is filled with 200 barrels of oil based on the spot price on the date of the sale (for this example we used a $50 USD spot price). What does it cost Iraq to produce the oil to fill this order? Well they have negotiated productions agreements for $1.50 USD/barrel. From that price $.50 USD goes to the national Iraqi oil company who is the partner in the field the oil came from. Out of the remaining $1.00 the other oil field partners have to pay the Iraq government a profit tax of $.35 USD (35%). The net cost to Iraq to produce a barrel of oil used in this scenario is $.65 USD. (i.e. $1.50 � .50 � .35)

(6) The transaction is completed with the Federal Reserve exchanging foreign reserve credits which are equal to 10,000 IQD (which had a net acquisition cost of $6,500 USD) for 200 barrels of oil (which has a net cost to produce of $130 USD.

Simply put, it cost Iraq $130 USD from their foreign currency reserve accounts to redeem the value of 10,000 IQD, which goes into their operating accounts. At the same time the US got $10,000 worth of oil for a net cost of $6,500. That�s how it was originally planned for Iraq to RV at 1 IQD = 1 USD, with the variable being the political element (i.e. UN Sanctions, GOI actions, IMF actions, World Bank actions etc.)

Now let�s really stir the pot by:

(a) Having the DFI ($280+ Billion USD) plus other frozen assets (estimated at $100 billion) turned back to Iraq and added to their foreign currency reserve, bringing it up to $430+ billion USD.

(B) Then change the current fractional IQD reserve requirements of 100% to 15%. That just raised the total potential money supply value to $2.8 Trillion (430 billion/ 15), while at the same time the total physical IQD in circulation is being reduced by removing the large bills with the 3 zeros.

© Also execute the plan Iraq announced to increase oil production from 2+ million barrels/day to 10 million barrels/day with the resulting revenues flowing directly to the Iraq treasury.

(d) To add a little more intrigue have the CBI continue to use it�s sales window to market oil futures and forex contracts. They have shown they can generate significant cash flow in the private market, think of their impact in public markets.

We leave it to your analytical ability to determine how high of an RV exchange rate IRAQ can really support. There is strong political pressure to set the initial rate at $3.22 USD = 1 IQD, so it can be proclaimed that IRAQ has moved back into the International community of nations and has re-established it�s currency at the internationally traded rate in effect before Saddam invaded Kuwait in 1990.

Frank26 zip code is $3.21+ as I remember, which is suggested is the same exchange rates cabinet ministers reportedly used to project the 2010 budget.

VERY INTERESTING! You have to love it when a plan comes together.

__________________

IRS Circular 230 requires that those enrolled to practice before the IRS should state when general information is given, that it �SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED PROFESSIONAL ADVICE�. We strongly encourage all investors to consult with their own professional financial team.

I really enjoyed the Economist RV explanation, parts 1 and 2. This was posted in April, i believe. What has changed, if anything, that could impact this? is there really political pressure to come out $3.00+ Now honestly, as much as we want this, is there any chance of it happeneing this year? Why or why not? How about 2011? Is there any chance it WON"T happen and the currency will be allowed to just gradually increase during our lifetime as the Iraq economy improves??

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If it comes in at $.86 up to $3.22 either way I have a plan to take care of my family, and my debts and my local church. Either way, many will be blessed by the RV of the Dinar. Hopefully sooner rather than later.

DITTO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

pretty interesting. I hope it comes out soon. I've been in this since 2008, and believe me, I think within 6 months the button will be pressed

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So how would it affect those of us with a Warka account? If the Iraqi people are switching a 25,000 note for a 25 in country.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

***///

 

Too bad it all hasn't happened yet..... sigh. <_<

 

Mekka Lekka High,

"Mecca" Hiney Ho...... :ph34r:

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.