Economist RV Explanation Part I and II

[inmarc]

carlablum, the budget was supposed to be effective 1/1/2010. IRAQ internally is currently being run on drawdowns from their IMF SBA (Stand By Agreement), budget surpluses from 2009 and reportedly a loan from Japan. The CBI is taking care of external activities through auctions, physical currency sales, DFI payments etc. Not a very good gameplan for establishing a stable economy.

[carlablum]

carlablum, the budget was supposed to be effective 1/1/2010. IRAQ internally is currently being run on drawdowns from their IMF SBA (Stand By Agreement), budget surpluses from 2009 and reportedly a loan from Japan. The CBI is taking care of external activities through auctions, physical currency sales, DFI payments etc. Not a very good gameplan for establishing a stable economy.

Thank you!! My button is gone!!

[inmarc]

bahtman,

Thanks for your kind words and especially your prayers. We're just a messenger passing on what comes our way, regarding the "IQD perfect economic storm."

[bahtman]

bahtman,

Thanks for your kind words and especially your prayers. We're just a messenger passing on what comes our way, regarding the "IQD perfect economic storm."

Inmarc,

I'm thinking that your post #122 above should be re-posted to it's own thread under Rumors.

Even without a link, it's proof from a respected member of what exchange rate may be in the 2010 budget that is so conspicuously missing.

[inmarc]

bahtman,

I'll try to do that but interestingly enough I went to search for a English translation link and the one I found now works, hasn't for 2 months. Here's the Ministry Of Planning - The Exchange Rate of Foreign Currency in Economic Feasibility Studies in English.

[carlablum]

bahtman,

I'll try to do that but interestingly enough I went to search for a English translation link and the one I found now works, hasn't for 2 months. Here's the Ministry Of Planning - The Exchange Rate of Foreign Currency in Economic Feasibility Studies in English.

Is this what your needing?

http://www.mop-iraq.org/mopdc/index.jsp?sid=1&id=308&pid=295&lng=en

[inmarc]

carlablum, thanks got it, just looked at the old link we were using and it was a google machine translation of the same site in Arabic from the summer of 2009. They have gotten modern on us and we can obviously go in direct. Will have to nose around and see if there are any other pieces of the puzzle hiding in there.

[theDude]

Had to share this! Part 1

Economist Explains How The Plan To Have The IQD RV at 1 IQD = $1 USD Should Work!

test

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In our 40+ year career as a Retirement Consultant we have been blessed to meet some very talented professionals. One of them is a retired State Dept. economist who introduced us to the IQD investment in 2005. He had worked on the original plan to install a new monetary system for Iraq after the 2003 invasion.

He had originally indicated that the plan was for the IQD to achieve financial parity with the USD over a 7-10 year period from the introduction of the new system. At that time the USD�s use would be completely discontinued and it would be replaced by the IQD for in-country use and international exchange. The variable factor in the timetable would be the political environment.

I visited with him recently and got an update on several issues:

(1) He indicated the original time table was proceeding on a fast track due to the financial management skills exhibited by the CBI and the Finance Ministry in (1) controlling the rate of inflation, (2) controlling the value of the IQD in a declining economic environment and (3) implementing a digital banking system both internally and externally, but the variable was still the political environment.

Like most economist he doesn�t talk in absolutes (i.e. rate/date) but in probabilities. His knowledge base is pretty current since he is still part of a subsection of the original group that Iraq, State Department and IMF financial people bounce things off of.

(2) We raised the issue of the large number of IQD reported as being in circulation (current estimates are at 25 Trillion). He indicated this was mostly made up of (1) in country physical currency, (2) the foreign currency reserves of the central banks around the world which are electronic, (3) currency that had been printed but not released (i.e. small denomination bills) and (4) privately held physical currency sold to increase the foreign currency reserves.

The export oil revenues are still under the control of the UN supervised DFI, and Iraq only gets roughly 30% of the fair market value of the oil they are selling, which is to be used only for budgetary expenditures. Since Shabbi, the head of the CBI, knew he couldn�t get anymore cash flow out of the controlled revenue system the IMF/UN had him under, he opened a currency sales window at the daily auctions to tap into the wallets of the worlds speculators. Worked pretty good, since he�s built his foreign currency reserves to over $50 billion USD.

(3) We then moved to the removal of big bills (the ones with the 3 zeros on them) and he said that this activity was always built into the plan. The activity was to begin as soon as Iraq had implemented a modern digital financial system (i.e. bank branches, credit/debit cards, ATM�s, direct wire transfers etc.). The removal of the large bills in-country would be the reverse of the process that was used to remove the pre-2003 currency with Saddams picture on it. The example was a 25,000 IQD=$25USD/pre-rv note would be brought into the bank and exchanged for a 25 IQD note=$25 USD post/rv. The 25,000 IQD note would then be destroyed removing it from the currency in circulation account. I told him a lot of people would call that a LOP and he laughed, saying they are partially right, because 25,000 IQD was being lopped from the currency in circulation account, but the only reason for this process was to improve money handling ability at all organization levels, and reduce the actual physical currency in use in all areas of the Iraq economy.

Interestingly enough, he said this activity could happen in-country without an approved RV rate being released to the International financial system. I asked how much physical IQD did he estimated was in circulation in-country, and he said probably less than had been originally introduced in 2003 which was about $4.5 billion USD worth at an exchange rate of 2000 IQD = $1 USD, because there has been a continuous process of not replacing the larger bills as they wore out. In fact this has resulted in currency shortages in some areas.

(4) The next obvious question was how would the removal of the large bills with the three zeros work outside of Iraq, because of the number of world speculators holding IQD. He indicated, the amount of IQD held by speculators was relatively minor (less than 10%) compared to the IQD held as foreign currency reserve by the central banks of a number of major countries (US, China, England & France were the largest) with major financial interest in Iraq. He didn�t have an exact estimate of speculator holdings but ventured an educated guess of 750,000 individuals worldwide with the majority in the US. Estimated value of their holdings $1.5 Trillion � $1.7 trillion IQD.

The remainder of the discussion will be posted in Part 2.

__________________

IRS Circular 230 requires that those enrolled to practice before the IRS should state when general information is given, that it �SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED PROFESSIONAL ADVICE�. We strongly encourage all investors to consult with their own professional financial team.

[carlablum]

carlablum,

Thank you for your well wishes and especially your prayers. My grandson had his bible study class pray for me too, since he said it worked when his dog Diesel was sick. Obviously you guys have some pull with "the boss." I don't think it will be an RI since that means re-establishing the $3.208 rate, but there will be an RV within the $.86 - $1.17 range. This will have to happen just before or at the same time the 2010 budget is released. The overriding question, which nobody I know really has the answer to, is when will that be?

inmarc,

Is this what we are looking for? I hope you are online becouse I sure respect your opinion!!

Blessings,

Carla

Barham Saleh gives orders to implement 2010 budget

April 26, 2010 - 04:46:45

ARBIL / Aswat al-Iraq: Prime Minister of Iraq’s Kurdistan region, Barham Saleh, instructed all ministries to implement the 2010 budget in accordance with the instructions issued from the planning and finance ministries, according to a statement of his office.

“The region’s Council of Ministers held a meeting under Prime Minister Barham Saleh with the participation of his deputy Azad Barwari to discuss ways of implementing the recently approved 2010 budget and to approve special instructions in this regard,” said the statement received by Aswat al-Iraq news agency.

Saleh asserted that the approval of the 2010 budget is a start of a new stage in the government’s work and a start of a wide-scale activity to implement projects and provide services to citizens.

http://en.aswataliraq.info/?p=130812

[luckylucy]

Inmarc, carla, bahtma ... and anyone I'm missing ... thanks so much for this info. I think it is some of the most logical and responsibly shared of anything I see on the internet regarding the dinar.

thanks so much ... and glad you are better inmarc!

luckylucy

[kamm]

]

I second your post Luckylucy. Thats some good reading. Steve

[inmarc]

inmarc,

Is this what we are looking for? I hope you are online becouse I sure respect your opinion!!

Blessings,

Carla

Barham Saleh gives orders to implement 2010 budget

April 26, 2010 - 04:46:45

ARBIL / Aswat al-Iraq: Prime Minister of Iraq’s Kurdistan region, Barham Saleh, instructed all ministries to implement the 2010 budget in accordance with the instructions issued from the planning and finance ministries, according to a statement of his office.

“The region’s Council of Ministers held a meeting under Prime Minister Barham Saleh with the participation of his deputy Azad Barwari to discuss ways of implementing the recently approved 2010 budget and to approve special instructions in this regard,” said the statement received by Aswat al-Iraq news agency.

Saleh asserted that the approval of the 2010 budget is a start of a new stage in the government’s work and a start of a wide-scale activity to implement projects and provide services to citizens.

http://en.aswataliraq.info/?p=130812

carlablum,

Unfortunately this refers only to the Kurdistan budget, and has you know they are a semi-autonomous region with their own parliment and prime minister. That being said it would be interesting to see their 2010 budget, it could probably give us some good intelligence as to the 2010 national budget.

[carlablum]

carlablum,

Unfortunately this refers only to the Kurdistan budget, and has you know they are a semi-autonomous region with their own parliment and prime minister. That being said it would be interesting to see their 2010 budget, it could probably give us some good intelligence as to the 2010 national budget.

Can't wait to see it!

Thank you!

Carla

[powerpager]

Great info post

[Ran]

As Flip has said, we should think and pray positively, then let it go. It will happen in it's own time. No fear.. It is here now, that is all we can bleleive. Just relax and let it happen.. All is good.

[shall1149]

Great post

[smurf1955]

new member,new investor, here. i'm still lost,but thanks anyway.lol.

[Njbcgal]

Had to share this! Part 1

Economist Explains How The Plan To Have The IQD RV at 1 IQD = $1 USD Should Work!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In our 40+ year career as a Retirement Consultant we have been blessed to meet some very talented professionals. One of them is a retired State Dept. economist who introduced us to the IQD investment in 2005. He had worked on the original plan to install a new monetary system for Iraq after the 2003 invasion.

He had originally indicated that the plan was for the IQD to achieve financial parity with the USD over a 7-10 year period from the introduction of the new system. At that time the USD�s use would be completely discontinued and it would be replaced by the IQD for in-country use and international exchange. The variable factor in the timetable would be the political environment.

I visited with him recently and got an update on several issues:

(1) He indicated the original time table was proceeding on a fast track due to the financial management skills exhibited by the CBI and the Finance Ministry in (1) controlling the rate of inflation, (2) controlling the value of the IQD in a declining economic environment and (3) implementing a digital banking system both internally and externally, but the variable was still the political environment.

Like most economist he doesn�t talk in absolutes (i.e. rate/date) but in probabilities. His knowledge base is pretty current since he is still part of a subsection of the original group that Iraq, State Department and IMF financial people bounce things off of.

(2) We raised the issue of the large number of IQD reported as being in circulation (current estimates are at 25 Trillion). He indicated this was mostly made up of (1) in country physical currency, (2) the foreign currency reserves of the central banks around the world which are electronic, (3) currency that had been printed but not released (i.e. small denomination bills) and (4) privately held physical currency sold to increase the foreign currency reserves.

The export oil revenues are still under the control of the UN supervised DFI, and Iraq only gets roughly 30% of the fair market value of the oil they are selling, which is to be used only for budgetary expenditures. Since Shabbi, the head of the CBI, knew he couldn�t get anymore cash flow out of the controlled revenue system the IMF/UN had him under, he opened a currency sales window at the daily auctions to tap into the wallets of the worlds speculators. Worked pretty good, since he�s built his foreign currency reserves to over $50 billion USD.

(3) We then moved to the removal of big bills (the ones with the 3 zeros on them) and he said that this activity was always built into the plan. The activity was to begin as soon as Iraq had implemented a modern digital financial system (i.e. bank branches, credit/debit cards, ATM�s, direct wire transfers etc.). The removal of the large bills in-country would be the reverse of the process that was used to remove the pre-2003 currency with Saddams picture on it. The example was a 25,000 IQD=$25USD/pre-rv note would be brought into the bank and exchanged for a 25 IQD note=$25 USD post/rv. The 25,000 IQD note would then be destroyed removing it from the currency in circulation account. I told him a lot of people would call that a LOP and he laughed, saying they are partially right, because 25,000 IQD was being lopped from the currency in circulation account, but the only reason for this process was to improve money handling ability at all organization levels, and reduce the actual physical currency in use in all areas of the Iraq economy.

Interestingly enough, he said this activity could happen in-country without an approved RV rate being released to the International financial system. I asked how much physical IQD did he estimated was in circulation in-country, and he said probably less than had been originally introduced in 2003 which was about $4.5 billion USD worth at an exchange rate of 2000 IQD = $1 USD, because there has been a continuous process of not replacing the larger bills as they wore out. In fact this has resulted in currency shortages in some areas.

(4) The next obvious question was how would the removal of the large bills with the three zeros work outside of Iraq, because of the number of world speculators holding IQD. He indicated, the amount of IQD held by speculators was relatively minor (less than 10%) compared to the IQD held as foreign currency reserve by the central banks of a number of major countries (US, China, England & France were the largest) with major financial interest in Iraq. He didn�t have an exact estimate of speculator holdings but ventured an educated guess of 750,000 individuals worldwide with the majority in the US. Estimated value of their holdings $1.5 Trillion � $1.7 trillion IQD.

The remainder of the discussion will be posted in Part 2.

__________________

IRS Circular 230 requires that those enrolled to practice before the IRS should state when general information is given, that it �SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED PROFESSIONAL ADVICE�. We strongly encourage all investors to consult with their own professional financial team.

Here's a posting that puts what is going on in Iraq with the RV into something totally understandable and it gives hope to the reality we all want. Thanks!

[pourit]

I love commonsense......thank you so much for the post. It cleared somethings up for me.

[GrahamB]

wow best post yet. Call me stupid but carl, can you explain how the exchange would work with the zeros taken away. I have 20 million in 10000 and 20000 notes. can you walk me through that process at $3.22

Multiply 20 by 3.22 (millions) and take of the tax, if you cannot find out the easy way to avoid it.

If you cannot do those first two steps, then give it all to a good charity!

[GrahamB]

I guess it's just me, but let me be the first to tell the emperor he has no clothes.

This so-called "report" from a so-called "STate Dept Economist" is the most mis-leading, unintelligible piece of fiction I have seen on any Dinar site. If anybody would like more information about (the first) paragraph (3), we can start another thread.

My favorite part is how $10 turns into $10,000. Let's use the original author's numbers.

-I give Iraq $10, they give me 10,000IQD

-I wait

-I wait

-WooHoo the RV hits

-I exchange my 10,000IQD for $10,000 at the bank

-The bank transfers the 10,000IQD to the Federal Reserve

-The Federal Reserve orders $10,000 worth of oil with their 10,000IQD as payment

-Iraq gives them 200 barrels of oil

In the end, Iraq gets $10 for 200 barrels of oil? <<<THAT is the part you start to lose me on.

And they had to spend $130 to produce the oil?

Wouldn't this make more sense?

-A dozen other people an I each give Iraq $10, and they give each of us 10,000IQD

-Iraq takes the $130 and produces 200 barrels of oil

-Iraq sells THEIR oil at market for $10,000

-Iraq keeps THEIR $10,000

-I Exchange my 10,000IQD for $10

Even if you scale the RV down from a Dollar to a dime or to a penny, Iraq is still better off keeping THEIR money than by giving it to you.

Dustin, What you write makes wonderful sense. But it ignores a few economic and political realities. Like the Iraqis want to be part of this great mad world, with unimportant little things like International Trade, free trade agreements, etc. All of which are predicated on having a floating currency. Floating currencies find their own value. If Iraq floated its currency at NID1,170 per USD1.00 (i.e. the current rate) the market would take it up like a fountain, and probably go so far over the top in the process that it would hit ground on the way back down!

It makes sense to set a value that the market can live with. Whether that is USD0.10, US0, 0.86, or USD 3.19 is arguable. But the need for the float is not!

Back in '03 a Harvard economist suggest a value based on USD0.33 plus Euro0.33 (Approx USD0.41) plus 1/100 of price of barrel of Iraqi Crude (say USD0.70) making a value of approx. USD1.44. And that was before reasonably normal democratic elections where even in sight!

Personally I do not doubt the need for a float, and that float makes an RV inevitable. Just how the mechanisms work is in the hands of a greater power than any of us here in DinarVetsLand, but it will happen. The ONLY questions are:

'When?',

'At what value?', and

'What's the fine print on the deal?'.

Unless you want to include 'How do I maximise my profit potential in the scheme of things?'

[solo628]

Here's a posting that puts what is going on in Iraq with the RV into something totally understandable and it gives hope to the reality we all want. Thanks!

Great post, thanks alot!

[tampa1000]

Great post, Possum you should have thought of this first!!!

[RV2010]

New to this site, love the lively and mostly encouraging conversation Looking forward to participating and gleaning insight from you seasoned vets! Thanks.

[rfermin]

Carl Thank you for the amazing posting. LOPping all the way to the bank.

Edited May 29, 2010 by rfermin