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Dinar Rumor Looks like the road will be long... IMF Reports...


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Just some info from the latest IMF report:

32. The lack of data and large structural changes in the Iraqi economy preclude any

meaningful estimation of the equilibrium real exchange rate. A very crude assessment

suggests that the dinar is broadly in line with fundamentals.4 With the drop in oil prices, it

appears that a possible prior undervaluation has disappeared, and that the dinar could even be

somewhat overvalued.

33. The authorities are committed to a liberal exchange regime and to removing all

restrictions under Fund jurisdiction. Iraq has a generally unrestricted current account

regime and a significantly liberalized capital account. However, four measures have been

identified to give rise to exchange restrictions subject to Fund approval. Three relate to a

requirement to pay all obligations and debts to the government before relevant payments are

transferred abroad, and one to an inoperative bilateral payments agreement with Jordan. The

authorities are considering measures to remove the identified restrictions, with a view to

accepting Article VIII of the Fund

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I don't buy it. There is no way possible that the IQD is undervalued. There is construction all over this country, new cars everywhere, signs of progress unlike anything I have ever seen. If anything this is pressure for Iraq to re-value, if for nothing else to save face. IMO.

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Just some info from the latest IMF report:

32. The lack of data and large structural changes in the Iraqi economy preclude any

meaningful estimation of the equilibrium real exchange rate. A very crude assessment

suggests that the dinar is broadly in line with fundamentals.4 With the drop in oil prices, it

appears that a possible prior undervaluation has disappeared, and that the dinar could even be

somewhat overvalued.

33. The authorities are committed to a liberal exchange regime and to removing all

restrictions under Fund jurisdiction. Iraq has a generally unrestricted current account

regime and a significantly liberalized capital account. However, four measures have been

identified to give rise to exchange restrictions subject to Fund approval. Three relate to a

requirement to pay all obligations and debts to the government before relevant payments are

transferred abroad, and one to an inoperative bilateral payments agreement with Jordan. The

authorities are considering measures to remove the identified restrictions, with a view to

accepting Article VIII of the Fund’s Articles of Agreement, but it may take time to resolve

the last restriction because of the pending resolution of Iraq’s debts to Jordan.

Full Report Here:

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2010/cr1072.pdf

I skimmed the actual report, and the Effective Report says March 2010 as a "Summary Report", but as you look through the report, it has several documents inclusive - 16 Feb 2010, and 24 Feb 2010. I believe that most of the data was actually pre-Dec 09 and the initial Report was presented on 16 Feb (the negative statement was taken from this), with the later report dated 24 Feb - which was the "Favorable Report" from the IMF that offered the loan. I feel that this is "Smoke & Mirrors" depending who & how it was NOW brought forward. It could just be some info that was dug up and thrown out there. This is JMHO...! Keep the faith that our investment is in God's Hands - not man's. Several prophetic voices indicated God's outpoured Blessing WILL be this year, with one indicating mid year, but no later than Dec 2010.

I hope this helps quell your anxiety.

Be Positive & Be Blessed,

RON ;)

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So it's old... great but is it still from the IMF right? and they are the ones that have there finger on the trigger. That much has changed in a few months? but it is a "US GOVERNMENT" document so it's not worth the paper it's written on

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"the dinar could even be somewhat overvalued."

They've got to be out of their mind

IT is true throughout the world a group of people that hides in air con room in exclusive office never know what goes on in the street of the real world

making reports as if they are know everything.

wonder if the people that produce the report ever step foot in Iraq

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in case you missed it, it says at the top these are the views of the staff and NOT of the executive board of IMF....dont sweat it.....although it does mention the fact that if the oil revenues go up, so will the exchange rate of the currency....so in other words we want the black gold as high as possible!! LETS GO 5$ A GALLON!! HAHAHA

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I don't buy it. There is no way possible that the IQD is undervalued. There is construction all over this country, new cars everywhere, signs of progress unlike anything I have ever seen. If anything this is pressure for Iraq to re-value, if for nothing else to save face. IMO.

really? seems a bit undervalued to me

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