Posted 11 August 2012 - 12:09 PM
8-11-2012 SWFloridaGuy: Major political reform is the direction the GOI is headed (ever so slowly). Talabani is calling for leaders to unify their positions and according to reports they have reached an agreement on 80% of the reform paper which is a great sign and potentially may lead to the end of the political crisis. Each side will claim victory I'm sure, but what is important is reconciliation. The adoption of the applicable reforms may be the political stability the CBI is looking for. Does political stability mean Iraq must revalue their currency? Of course not. However, if you truly believe economic reforms are also on the horizon for Iraq (as I do), then it's only logical to assume that political stability is necessary to ensure the success of the economic project. If you don't believe Iraq will revalue their currency, then of course this does not apply to you and I'm surprised you're taking the time to read my post. I have no proof Iraq will revalue their currency and I do recognize that it's not a given. However, I choose to believe this is a solid investment. Iraq is a very unique situation that shows promise and I do think there is a great basis for that. This is just my opinion. Now that I've thrown in my disclaimer for the Lopsters, I'll get back to the political situation.
I think it's pretty clear by now that the move to unseat Maliki was a bluff to force him to follow-through with implementing the formerly agreed upon legislature. After all, it would only inflame the crisis, not solve it. Iraqiya and SLC struck an agreement where they will benefit from maintaining the “surplus” seats. If the Shia alliance voted to oust Maliki it would be fractionalized. If a good part of Maliki’s alliance were to defect then the National Alliance would no longer be the biggest bloc in Parliament and would not have the right to appoint the next Prime Minister. Iraqiya has only 85 deputies and would be reduced to at least 75 if they moved against Maliki. Iraqiya would have had to form a bloc with the Kurds and agree on a leader to avoid Maliki’s bloc getting hold of the nomination of the next PM which is in conflict with article 76 of the Iraqi constitution on the nomination procedure (which Iraqiya in 2010 saw as belonging to the biggest electoral list).
All of this points to a bluff; a bluff that apparently has worked and that's because the flip side of that coin is that Maliki has some very good reasons to avoid being questioned before Parliament. A recent decision by the Iraqi Supreme Court says that under article 61-7c of the Iraq constitution, to question the Prime Minister there has to be specific criminal charges or constitutional infractions and whoever that minister in question may be, if adjudicated guilty, will be held accountable. So, this is no small matter for Maliki because he could be brought up on a lot of charges including corruption, crimes against humanity and of course refusing to provide even basic services for the Iraqi people. Maliki's opposition has done what they needed to do (bluff or not), to ensure that parts of Erbil will be implemented, permanent ministers and Strategic Council announced as well bringing the Justice, General Amnesty, Federal Court and Judicial Council laws to the table for adoption. Iraq never moves at our speed but for reasons I formerly mentioned, I do believe this new reform compromise is real and we may see a National Meeting in the near future. I have been wrong many times about the timing of this National Meeting and it's left me a bit gun-shy when it comes to trying to pin down a time-frame. So, I'm just going to let this play out and hope for the best. These are just my opinions, which may or may not be correct.