22 replies to this topic

[20MillionDinar]

S&P 500: 800 - 1000 (hangman chart pattern forming)

DOW Jones: 8000 - 10000

Oil: $50 - $60 per barrel

Gold: $1,200 - $1,300


**2012 Cash will be KING, namely the US Dollar**

It's time to either sell off your stock holdings OR if you really want to make money this year you can short the DOW, S&P 500, Oil, Gold, or other major currency pairs as the USD is going up up and away. Key areas of resistance have been broken on the Dollar Index. S&P 500 hangman chart pattern forming, this is a very reliable chart pattern on the larger time frames. Key support levels have been broken by Oil. Once Gold breaks $1,520 it will also fall into the abyss. Everything in confluence is confirming my predictions which are stated above.

Consider this a fair warning to all!

[cris]

Thanks 20Million
Can you explain this a little more?
I can understand a stock sell off and a drop in the Market, I can understand
a devalue of gold, if the dollar is strong.
What makes the dollar strong? Other weak currencies? Or are we
going to see the debt change, some forgiveness?
And what is the cause for oil to drop? Just a general sell off of stock?

Edited by cris, 12 July 2012 - 12:17 AM.

[20MillionDinar]

As you probably already know the Eurozone is in BIG trouble and there is no immediate "fix" for their problems.

China has also been experiencing major slow downs in their markets which is why they have actually cut rates twice in the pats few months and have gone ahead with their stimulus plans.

The Royal Bank of Australia has cut interest rates from 4% down to 3.75% on April 30th. They also cut their rates again from 3.75% down to 3.5% in June. When China's manufacturing and overall growth slows down, Australia slows down because Australia is very reliant on exports of Gold and other minerals which are used in Manufacturing.

Canada is very reliant on their Oil and Gold exports so when prices of Oil & Gold go down, so does their exports and overall production.

The European Central Bank also cut their rates from 1.00% down to .75% which is now the lowest cash interest rate since the inception of the Euro. Not good for them...

Britain's economy is contracting and has been (and will be) doing more quantitative easing in the near future to try and "stimulate" their economy.


There is much more to this, but this is the simplified version. Basically, we are experiencing a contraction / slow down on a global scale and when this happens it is known as "risk off." This means that money flows from "risk on" investments such as the equity markets and emerging economies back to the safe haven currencies - the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen.

The major indices move (more or less) in correlation with currencies such as the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Euro, Great British Pound, as well as a few others. **The Australian Dollar will do the best out of the other currencies as it is has the highest interest rate and is well liked for the "carry trade" because of the interest it pays. But it will still move down with the others...

If you pull up some historical charts from 2008 you will find what I'm saying is true. When major problems occur around the world, money flows to the USD and the JPY as they are the safest currencies, regardless of what others say about the imminent crash of the USD. That is definitely not the case!

There is much much more to it then what I stated above, BUT, the overall sentiment of the markets are RISK OFF and will remain this way until the end of 2012. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure is Ben Bernanke's favorite fundamental tool to gauge whether to do QE. If it stays above 2%, QE bugs can kiss QE goodbye. We won't see any additional QE until after November's elections, if ever again at all... LTRO's yes, but no QE.

Edited by 20MillionDinar, 12 July 2012 - 12:31 AM.

[20MillionDinar]

Another interesting note:



The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) consists of six foreign currencies. They are the:

• Euro (EUR)
• Yen (JPY)
• Pound (GBP)
• Canadian dollar (CAD)
• Krona (SEK)
• Franc (CHF)

6 different currencies make up the Dollar Index but there are a total of 21 countries due to the fact that there are 16 members of the European Union.



USDX Components:
Because not every country is the same size, it's only fair that each is given appropriate weights when calculating the U.S. dollar index. Check out the current weights:



With its 16 countries, euros make up a big chunk of the U.S. Dollar Index. The next highest is the Japanese yen, which would make sense since Japan has one of the biggest economy in the world. The other four make up less than 30 percent of the USDX.

Here's something interesting: When the euro falls, which way does the U.S Dollar Index move? UP!

The euro makes up such a huge portion of the U.S. Dollar Index, we might as well call this index the "Anti-Euro Index".

[jcfrag]

I'm curious. When I type type USDX into the search bar of ETRADE, there is no such USDX. Where can look at the USDX activity?

[rockfl9]

JC::: It's'an INDEX not a security ..Go to fxtrader.com

JC::: fxtrademaker.com

[dinar_millions]

S&P 500: 800 - 1000 (hangman chart pattern forming)

DOW Jones: 8000 - 10000

Oil: $50 - $60 per barrel

Gold: $1,200 - $1,300


**2012 Cash will be KING, namely the US Dollar**

It's time to either sell off your stock holdings OR if you really want to make money this year you can short the DOW, S&P 500, Oil, Gold, or other major currency pairs as the USD is going up up and away. Key areas of resistance have been broken on the Dollar Index. S&P 500 hangman chart pattern forming, this is a very reliable chart pattern on the larger time frames. Key support levels have been broken by Oil. Once Gold breaks $1,520 it will also fall into the abyss. Everything in confluence is confirming my predictions which are stated above.

Consider this a fair warning to all!

i actually believe u are close to right on.....gold may fall below $1000.00

as far as crude oil fear mongering speculators have nothing to scare us with anymore

[cris]

Thanks 20 million for getting back to us with that detail.
Im interested for a lot of reasons, financial, economic, & political

[Iremainjay]

Saw your post on dinar recaps this am. How can I receive tips or training on forex an other investments in which you are making a profit?

Thanks

[20MillionDinar]

Thanks 20 million for getting back to us with that detail.
Im interested for a lot of reasons, financial, economic, & political

Hey no problem Cris!

[DinarWhiz]

I have some silver stocks and efts what do ya think will happen with these?

[rockfl9]

20MIL::: I can agree with everything you say,except oil at less than $60...would OPEC let that happen? And it would put a hit on any chances of the iraqi economy improving...

[sxsess]

S&P 500: 800 - 1000 (hangman chart pattern forming)

DOW Jones: 8000 - 10000

Oil: $50 - $60 per barrel

Gold: $1,200 - $1,300


**2012 Cash will be KING, namely the US Dollar**

It's time to either sell off your stock holdings OR if you really want to make money this year you can short the DOW, S&P 500, Oil, Gold, or other major currency pairs as the USD is going up up and away. Key areas of resistance have been broken on the Dollar Index. S&P 500 hangman chart pattern forming, this is a very reliable chart pattern on the larger time frames. Key support levels have been broken by Oil. Once Gold breaks $1,520 it will also fall into the abyss. Everything in confluence is confirming my predictions which are stated above.

Consider this a fair warning to all!

20 mil I dont share your sentiment. Not to say it is wrong.. I hope it is wrong. I see a continuing bull market in gold towards the end of the year with this debt crisis. IMO its just a matter of time before the dollar value collapses. I dont mean the USD going to zero but it will drop substantially. Hopefully this RV will be enough to make any of these scenarios a non-event. Good luck & good post.

[20MillionDinar]

I have some silver stocks and efts what do ya think will happen with these?

Silver will more than likely drop along with Gold.

**For people holding Gold & Silver. Watch the price of Gold during the next month or so. If $1,520 breaks then gold will fall and so will Silver, Platinum, Palladium, and Rhodium.

20MIL::: I can agree with everything you say,except oil at less than $60...would OPEC let that happen? And it would put a hit on any chances of the iraqi economy improving...

Over the last few months, since the leading economies put sanctions in place against Iranian oil, Saudi Arabia has been picking up the slack and supplying more oil contributing to a 25 percent plunge in oil prices since May 1. They are actually exceeding their "OPEC" quota.

Supply (new technologies to extract oil, improvements in offshore drilling, new reserves, etc) & demand (e.g inventories, OPEC quotas, etc) are key in oil. Geopolitical risk but also many other risk externalities (political, natural disasters , nationalizations, etc). So right now, with Saudi Arabia supplying more and more Oil and the global slowdown affecting the actual demand for oil is telling me Oil will be heading lower.


Those are the fundamental reasons. Technical reasons are the major uptrend that has already broken to the downside. What was "support" for Oil is now acting as "resistance."

So I see fundamental and technical reasons for Oil to drop down to the $50-$60 level.

**The reason OPEC will be OK with this is because they will be well compensated come next year. Oil will probably hit record highs next year. Low Oil prices will not be long term, that I can guarantee!

http://www.concordmo...million-barrels

http://online.wsj.co...1553193660.html

20 mil I dont share your sentiment. Not to say it is wrong.. I hope it is wrong. I see a continuing bull market in gold towards the end of the year with this debt crisis. IMO its just a matter of time before the dollar value collapses. I dont mean the USD going to zero but it will drop substantially. Hopefully this RV will be enough to make any of these scenarios a non-event. Good luck & good post.

Don't get me wrong, the USD is in pretty bad shape in the LONG TERM assuming some major changes don't take place. But as of 2012, with the global slow down, money flows to the USD. Take a look at the following article. You will see how money flows in times of crisis.




Why it's time for currency traders to batten down the hatches!

by Jack Crooks
Saturday, July 7, 2012 at 7:30am


Here are two new pieces of evidence that I believe increase the probability this view is correct ...A couple of weeks ago I shared my view on why the emerging market currencies were poised to feel the pain of slowdown in global money flow. I based it on the premise that money flows outward to emerging markets (aka periphery) from the developed world capital markets (aka center).


Furthermore, Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) numbers show an increasing number of economies across the world are contracting.First, there is a major disconnect between the amount of money being created to support the global banking system and its ability to trigger real growth. Take Australia as an example. From May to June, its money supply increased 4.8 percent, yet the economy contracted. The story was similar for others as you can see in the chart below.

Click the table for a larger view.

Second, because EM economies are more highly leveraged to global growth and low volatility, money flow to these economies could indeed decline going forward, which would put pressure on their currencies.

The latest evidence is in, and it's not pretty for emerging market currencies. If it is "déjà vu all over again," as Yogi would say, it is time for currency traders to batten down the hatches.

Focusing on the grey bars in the next chart, notice how the decline in money flow that started back in early 2007 foreshadowed the last crisis. Now notice the precipitous decline in global money flow to EMs that began in March 2010. Hmmm ...

Click the chart for a larger view.

Next, take a look at the chart below, considering the real money decline dates that took place in EMs in 2007 to March 2008 and what is happening now. The chart has three moving parts: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA); the Emerging Market Stock Index (EM Stk Index); and the U.S. dollar index (US$ Index).

As stock markets peaked back in late 2007, early 2008, then turned down, money began to flow in earnest to the US dollar and out of emerging markets evidence by the bottom in the dollar in March 2008 corresponding to a bottom in EM money flow during the same quarter in 2008.

Now it appears we may be seeing a bit of re-play. Stock markets may have peaked last year as money drained from the EM world. The U.S. dollar appears to have put in a double-bottom at the same time markets peaked last year.

The chart analysis validates the view money is indeed moving back to the center. But this time, it also seems the dollar is rallying from a higher base, confirming my longer term dollar bullish view.

Now many believe there is no need to worry about emerging markets because China will not let things get "out of control." There is an expectation that China will step in soon with a major stimulus program that will once again buoy stocks and commodities. The view makes sense. But there is, however, evidence to the contrary ...

• China cut interest rates on Thursday along with the European Central Bank. There was a collective yawn by the markets, and commodities moved lower on the news. This was price action that definitely was not in line with the news.
• According to Bloomberg Businessweek, "China plans to retain a cap on loans at 75 percent of deposits and may add further requirements that constrain credit growth under draft rules, a senior official at the banking regulator said."

This suggests to me that China is still reeling from inflation and asset bubbles created inside the country from the last round of major stimulus it issued during the credit crunch and realizes that money stimulus may not be the answer this time.

China's 4 trillion yuan stimulus package unveiled in 2008 led to an unprecedented 17.5 trillion yuan of loans in the following two years, pushing up property prices and inflation while raising concerns over banks' asset quality, according to the state-run Xinhua News Agency.

So if China doesn't come to the rescue, this trend in money flow back to the center is likely to intensify. And precisely because it may soon appear this trend could be particularly dangerous to China's still bubbly markets, it could hit the Asian-block EM currencies especially hard.

So if you think my EM money flow story makes sense, one way to play it from a currency perspective is by selling short Barclays Global Emerging Market Strategy (GEMS) Asia 8 Index. This fund seeks to replicate the movement of eight Asian market currencies relative to the U.S. dollar.

Best wishes,

Jack

Edited by 20MillionDinar, 12 July 2012 - 12:36 PM.

[Nadita]

20,

Thank you for the time you put in giving us the scoop of what is going to happen. I will take a very close look and study this

I am not very familiar with options or short and you mention about shorting Barclays... so if I want to buy it, how far out should I buy the short for...?

Thanks a lot

[20MillionDinar]

20,

Thank you for the time you put in giving us the scoop of what is going to happen. I will take a very close look and study this

I am not very familiar with options or short and you mention about shorting Barclays... so if I want to buy it, how far out should I buy the short for...?

Thanks a lot

Hi Nadita,

You're welcome. Just a heads up, that particular recommendation was not mine. It was Jack Crooks' recommendation from Money & markets. I really don't have any knowledge about that particular fund. Sorry!

[storm1]

Hi Nadita,

You're welcome. Just a heads up, that particular recommendation was not mine. It was Jack Crooks' recommendation from Money & markets. I really don't have any knowledge about that particular fund. Sorry!

SELL TO SHORT, BUY TO COVER

20MILLION
was reading your analysis, looking at my own charts, i see the usd index just barely broke the triple top. and looking at CCI, RSI, AND MACD, I believe we are actually at a decision point, it is possible we going into a down trend on USD but too early to tell, however this weeks session should give us a clearer picture. its is very possible we see down trend to the 50 ma and bound there, but we have support1 at 83.00major support for USD is 81.50.....im going to wait to make a market call until after this weeks session.

Edited by storm1, 15 July 2012 - 07:41 AM.

[20MillionDinar]

SELL TO SHORT, BUY TO COVER

20MILLION
was reading your analysis, looking at my own charts, i see the usd index just barely broke the triple top. and looking at CCI, RSI, AND MACD, I believe we are actually at a decision point, it is possible we going into a down trend on USD but too early to tell, however this weeks session should give us a clearer picture. its is very possible we see down trend to the 50 ma and bound there, but we have support1 at 83.00major support for USD is 81.50.....im going to wait to make a market call until after this weeks session.

Hey Storm1,

Thanks for the info. Feel free to post back here in another week to give your confirmation / market prediction!

[jcfrag]

JC::: It's'an INDEX not a security ..Go to fxtrader.com

JC::: fxtrademaker.com

Thanks rock. Crazy week here for me, but I am pulling it up as I type this!!!

[storm1]

Hey Storm1,

Thanks for the info. Feel free to post back here in another week to give your confirmation / market prediction!

DOING LIKE I THOUGHT IT MIGHT, USD pulling back markets starting to rise, but lets see what the week brings, needs a bit more confirmation