Popular Post SWFloridaGuy Posted July 9, 2012 Popular Post Report Share Posted July 9, 2012 7-9-2012 SWFloridaGuy: I believe a RV is coming but not due to numbers referenced in their budget. Iraq does not need to RV to open the budget as some claim. Budget increases are partially due to Increased oil revenues that have allowed Iraq to add around $9 billion to its 2012 budget. Power projects, ration baskets, defense spending and compensation to Kuwait are all major contributors to spending. Iraq has earned $45.3 billion from oil sales and the 2012 oil revenues are expected to exceed last year's which were $82.9 billion. None of this points to a definitive or required, new IQD rate. In fact, they don't have to meet their budget at all and have survived for 9 years with the IQD at a tenth of a cent, using the USD as their primary currency (although that will change and a convertible currency is necessary for Iraq to join the WTO). Certain countries who are WTO members do use the USD but Iraq's goal is for their primary currency to be the IQD and eventually dedollarize. We also believe this is an obligatory stipulation for accession where they are concerned. When the time comes, Iraq will lay out all their economic and trade policies that relate to WTO agreements, submit a memorandum and a panel will consider the application. When the principles and policies are in place, additional negotiations will commence between Iraq and member countries. The terms will be finalized and submitted to the General Council. If 2/3 of the members vote in favor, than Iraq may accede to the WTO. I'm not saying Iraq is about to RV for that reason, I'm simply laying out the process. Now every year we hear that the RV is in the budget, a rate of 3+ is required and it must be a revaluation. I only see 2 ways Iraq could get to a rate higher than the USD. Multiple revaluations, with incremental adjustments as a managed float in compliance with IMF oversight or a RD (which of course I don't believe will be the case). In my opinion Iraq will RV just less than the USD (as referenced by the SIGR report and countless 1 to 1 articles from the CBI and Finance Committee) or just slightly over, at the most. When I say "referenced" by the formerly mentioned, I am of course only pointing to a rate, as those sources do not mention the mechanisms that will get us to it. (No RV mentioned for obvious reasons). Lets put this in perspective, China was the largest RV in history at 30%. For Iraq to RV on par with the USD would be a 1,000% increase. That presents a ton of problems logistically. Even though much of it will be electronic, it still has to have a large part backed by hard currency and will have to be widely accepted around the world as a form of payment for goods and services. The IQD will have to remain relatively stable, be introduced into and remain highly liquid in the forex market and the country itself will have remains politically and economically stable. The other option would of course be a RD where they remove 3 zeros and change the rate from 1 IQD = US$0.00086 to 1 IQD = US$0.86. From there it could revalue from 86 cents to 1 Dollar, a 16% increase and more comparable to China and other RV's. That is NOT what I believe will happen, nor would it be the historic change we all signed up for. Many will say, "what about Kuwait, they RVd just like we want the IQD to." That's just not true. Kuwait never revalued their currency. The central bank did not change the rate. Saddam outlawed the Kuwaiti dinar and it fell in value. He told people to trade in their Kuwaiti dinar for Iraqi dinar before Oct. 6, 1990. When the U.S. stepped in, the value did again rise. This was not due to the bank changing the rate but rather the black market, similar to what Saddam did with the dinar in the late 80s. The Kuwait Central Bank never adjusted the rate below 3 dollars. They were occupied by Iraq and business was halted. Seven months later when Kuwait was back on their feet, they redenominated with the previous exchange rate. Actually, this was neither a RI or RD, by the true definition. This was a unique circumstance due to the invasion. Their currency was not adjusted due to sanctions like Iraq. Having said that, I do believe that Iraq will revalue. Will I ever be able to prove this? Of course not. If I was able to provide such luminous evidence of a RV that would eliminate all other possibilities, there would be a serious glitch in the process. I DO NOT believe in this constant barrage of "second to second" hype with ridiculously high rates, but if Shabibi's goal is to establish credibility, eventually be respected as a borrower and prime location for private investment in the eyes of global capital markets, then I would expect a RV at some level. The powerful governments, corporations and central banks that have invested so heavily in Iraq's reconstruction, debt forgiveness, technology sharing and bank revitalization, would have never done this unless they planned on being heavily compensated. We all know the value in the IQD is still there. Iraq's wealth has only increased with the discovery of large amounts of gold and oil & mineral deposits since their currency was devalued due to a war strategy. We will never have a complete understanding of the plan but we do think political stability and inflation are key factors. The IMF and World Bank has continued to instruct the CBI on how to improve economic efficiency, correct abuses, implement policies and enter the next phase of their currency reform project. (Which we also hope to profit from). Although there are still many areas in need of improvement, Iraq has come a long way. When we have announcements of the Strategic Council, HCL and full Erbil implementation, the political environment may be stable enough to ensure the success of the project and the CBI will make their move. These of course are no more than my opinions, which may or may not be correct. 35 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frogee Posted July 9, 2012 Report Share Posted July 9, 2012 Thank you SWFloridaGuy. I love positive attitudes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mgigs Posted July 9, 2012 Report Share Posted July 9, 2012 Well thank you! We all hope you are on track. That is why we all purchased the dinar. Keep bringing news and insight it is appreciated. MG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coleman619 Posted July 9, 2012 Report Share Posted July 9, 2012 Yawn 1 62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hunz2 Posted July 9, 2012 Report Share Posted July 9, 2012 It would a 100,000% increase if the IQD was to rv on par with the dollar, not a 1,000% increase. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocDinar. Posted July 9, 2012 Report Share Posted July 9, 2012 It would a 100,000% increase if the IQD was to rv on par with the dollar, not a 1,000% increase. It would be 1,000 times as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GasCan Posted July 9, 2012 Report Share Posted July 9, 2012 (edited) Yawn not to hide behind a button but i am the one that gave you a neg. dude you have to find some joy in life. i haven't seen anything positive from you ever. in my opinion you could be bring more to the table or comments like that should be kept to yourself. Edited July 9, 2012 by GasCan 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dhardage Posted July 9, 2012 Report Share Posted July 9, 2012 not to hide behind a button but i am the one that gave you a neg. dude you have to find some joy in life. i haven't seen anything positive from you ever. in my opinion you could be bring more to the table or comments like that should be kept to yourself. coleman's tired!! He needs a NAP! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caz1104 Posted July 9, 2012 Report Share Posted July 9, 2012 coleman's tired!! He needs a NAP! Gary Coleman................what cha talkin bout willis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocDinar. Posted July 9, 2012 Report Share Posted July 9, 2012 Gary Coleman................what cha talkin bout willis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hunz2 Posted July 9, 2012 Report Share Posted July 9, 2012 It would be 1,000 times as much. And that would be a 100,000% increase. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DinarThug Posted July 9, 2012 Report Share Posted July 9, 2012 coleman's tired!! He needs a NAP! And A Diaper Change ..... Thx For The Well Researched Analysis And Ur Willingness To Take The Time To Share It With Us SWFG ! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil1965 Posted July 9, 2012 Report Share Posted July 9, 2012 thanks for staying positive.... I believe.. GO RVVVVVVVVVVVVVV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWFloridaGuy Posted July 9, 2012 Author Report Share Posted July 9, 2012 And that would be a 100,000% increase. You're absolutely right. Sorry that should say 1,000 x or 100,000%. One decimal would be 1,000% or .0086 but I'm sure you understand my point. Cheers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keepmwlknfny Posted July 9, 2012 Report Share Posted July 9, 2012 That was actually a decent post....lol..... I know you have more of these type in ya! 14 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWFloridaGuy Posted July 9, 2012 Author Report Share Posted July 9, 2012 (edited) That was actually a decent post....lol..... I know you have more of these type in ya! Haha oh my God it's a miracle!! Hey if there's the possiblity of you I getting along on this blog, then anything is possible and maybe there's still hope for this RV after all. Thanks man and lets just hope one way or another (Lop or RV) this crap is over by January. I think we're all ready to put this behind us. Cheers. Edited July 9, 2012 by SWFloridaGuy 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caz1104 Posted July 9, 2012 Report Share Posted July 9, 2012 Haha oh my God it's a miracle!! Hey if there's the possiblity of you I getting along on this blog, then anything is possible and maybe there's still hope for this RV after all. Thanks man and lets just hope one way or another (Lop or RV) this crap is over by January. I think we're all ready to put this behind us. Cheers. Keep & SWFG at peace!!!!!!!!! as Fred Sanford use to say"lizabeth,this is the big one i'm comin to join ya" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VanessaL4100 Posted July 9, 2012 Report Share Posted July 9, 2012 Yawn Wow, Disrespectful much? Thanks for sharing!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umbertino Posted July 9, 2012 Report Share Posted July 9, 2012 It would be 1,000 times as much. Which in % means 100,000% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doctor robbins Posted July 9, 2012 Report Share Posted July 9, 2012 The SIGIR Report didn't say RV to just under a dollar. It said currency reform to remove three zeros. That's a lop. 4 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leanonme Posted July 9, 2012 Report Share Posted July 9, 2012 A very good post indeed! I aggree 100% with your thoughts and insight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocDinar. Posted July 9, 2012 Report Share Posted July 9, 2012 The SIGIR Report didn't say RV to just under a dollar. It said currency reform to remove three zeros. That's a lop. He didn't say the SIGR report said RV. Read what he said. What he said is: "In my opinion Iraq will RV just less than the USD (as referenced by the SIGR report and countless 1 to 1 articles from the CBI and Finance Committee) or just slightly over, at the most. When I say "referenced" by the formerly mentioned, I am of course only pointing to a rate, as those sources do not mention the mechanisms that will get us to it. (No RV mentioned for obvious reasons)." 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dinarful Posted July 9, 2012 Report Share Posted July 9, 2012 Thank you for your post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyDownTheShore Posted July 9, 2012 Report Share Posted July 9, 2012 Thanks for sharing your thoughts SWFG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmcwhipit Posted July 10, 2012 Report Share Posted July 10, 2012 Thanks SWFlorida guy appreciate the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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