Body mechanic here not a finance guy. I have been slammed by confessing to this investment with other physicians. Now I get another doc's investment advisor stuff me with the following...SIMPLE MATH ...I appreciate your input on the other post I made as I was tarred and feathered from my accountant buddies. I'll remain stupid but I don't like it. Back to my rock.
SIMPLE MATH
You take $1,000, you walk into a bank / money exchange and you buy $1,000 worth of Iraqi Dinar. And some people believe that if you hold onto it through a currency redenomination like Turkey, Afghanistan & oil-rich Venezuela went through, then the cashier will give you $1m upon changing it back for your $1,000 worth of Dinar?
Yes that’s pretty much it. People latch themselves like a limpet onto “feel-good” (and very convincing) salesmen-GREEDY-GURUS (some of whom were involved in the prior CMKM penny stock fraud “pump and dump” con using the same “secret intel on radio calls” tactics, GURUS-like Okieman, Breitling, Frank26, another site, Kaparoni, Millionday, another site, SteveI) who promise the Earth by trawling currency comparison sites – picking the weakest ones (“just look at HOW MANY you get per Dollar!”) that are weak due to prior chronic / hyper-inflation and try and “pretend” that inflation never occurred and they’re really “undervalued” due to some abnormal “secret aberration” that millions of people around the world who trade them every day are too “stupid” to see but Mr. Pumper of Arkansas or Lubbock, Tx...“knows the secret” – when in fact the currencies are weak simply because they’ve been over printed no different to 1920′s Germany or Zimbabwe. Or 70-odd other countries over the past century.
What they call “undervalued” is in fact – plain ordinary inflation and the dilution effects of basic currency over-supply vs economic demand. And what they amusingly call “the RV” is in fact demanding that 999x more money be printed (which would instantly trigger off hyper-inflation – everyone’s a millionaire but bread will cost $1,500 per loaf, houses would be $250m each instead of $250k, etc…) in the confused belief that “the more money you print the stronger a currency gets”. Back in reality the more currency that are printed – the more each currency unit gets devalued. That happens to all currencies (strong and weak) and isn’t even up for debate as a universal observable phenomenon. If people do not understand it, they need to keep calm and take responsibility for their own education rather than blow off steam out of frustration against those who do.
That there are over 60tn Iraqi Dinar’s and over a staggering 1qdrn (1,000 trillion) Vietnamese Dong in circulation – and that Saddam Hussein printed huge amounts of Dinar under the sanctions (precisely because if you can’t trade or borrow – then all you can do is print!) – goes straight over some people’s heads… That many Iraqi’s are using Dollars (a phenomenon called “Dollarization”) and Vietnamese have been buying houses with gold rather than native currencies speaks for itself. It’s actually pretty racist to declare all those 100m people “stupid” as well. People in their own countries know exactly what’s going on with their own currencies – a lot more than people with a sales agenda who hang onto “radio calls” every week.
As mentioned previously, the debate isn’t even economic anymore – it’s really psychological. That’s why when facts are on the table, all you will get in response is angry emotional outbursts from some people.
Let me ask you some questions – and please think them thru..
Do you believe that a drop of water can be larger than the glass of water from which the drop was taken? Do you believe that a grain of sand can be larger than a beach from which the grain was taken? Is a slice of bread larger than a loaf from which the slice is a part? Can an apple pip be larger than an apple including the pip? Is a screen pixel larger than a screen? Is an electron bigger than an atom including the electron?
Can a fish’s scale be larger than from the same fish it came? Can a leaf be larger than a bush including the leaf? Can a mountain pebble be larger than a mountain including the pebble? Can a wheel be larger than a car (including the wheel)? Can a saddle be larger than a bicycle including the saddle). Can a dog’s claw be larger than the dog (including the claw)? Can a millipede’s leg be larger than the millipede?
Can Iraq’s economy be bigger than Earth’s economy of which Iraq’s economy makes up just 1%?
Most honest sane people would truthfully answer “no” to these questions because the answer is not a relative subjective emotional “feeling” that can be argued over like art critics discussing the “mood” of Da Vinci – it’s one of objective literal physical impossibility.
Where [WE] are going wrong is quite simple – you believe basic mathematics & economics surrounding the redenomination are somehow “relative” and “must have no right answer” because it keeps the dream alive. Your intentions of not getting hurt are entirely understandable, but some things in life do have an objective right answer and plenty of wrong ones – and a country like Iraq can no more have a larger money supply than Planet Earth of which it makes up just 0.43% of the world’s population in people and 0.24% in economy size, than a small village in Hawaii can have an economy larger than the United States of America (which includes that small village) – or France can have an economy larger than Europe – including France!
The “RV” argument is so incredibly stupid that it defies belief that it actually needs explaining why Iraq’s money supply cannot be larger than the total global money supply of every country on planet Earth – including Iraq’s – combined – and 500x larger than Iraq’s own economy (which is the equivalent of America having a money supply of $7,500tn instead of $15.8tn)…
What [WE] seem to crave in post after post seems to be emotional reinforcement rather than simple honesty – you WANT others to “possibly be wrong” just to feel better about your ‘investment’ so you won’t have to think it through – not because it’s the actual truth.
Here is the real truth : Iraq may redenominate – or they may call off the redenomination and not do anything. Either way – the “RV” in the sense of an absurdly claimed 1:1 banknote exchange ratio after a 1000:1 currency adjustment (the world really doesn’t work like that) vs the $ is still a mathematical objective impossibility – because there isn’t enough money on the planet even if every man, woman & child in every country on Earth – all 7 BILLION people – gave every single bank-note, they had to Dinar speculators plus all money in their bank accounts, their incomes, their savings & pensions and resorted to foraging for food to survive. That’s the scale of ridiculousness of the 1:1 banknotes exchange “RV” claims. And no – I genuinely am not wrong in saying “The impossible cannot happen because it is impossible”.
If the whole Earth’s money supply is around $60tn…
http://goldseek.com/...9/1-12mh/11.png
…Then Iraq having under 0.24% global GDP cannot possibly have $62tn of Dinar’s whilst also simultaneously being 0.24% of the $60tn! There is nothing to “believe” or “get wrong” about this. It’s basic math with one right and plenty of wrong ones. You’re not just trying to fit a square peg into a round hole, you’re trying to fit a car into a tire, a loaf into a slice, a beach into a grain of sand, an apple into a pip, a glass of water into a droplet, etc. I really cannot think of any other way of spelling it out short of breaking out the purple crayons and explaining why daddy dinosaur’s toe (whom he nicknames “Iraq”) can’t be bigger than daddy dinosaur (whom his wife nicknames “planet Earth”).
The only genuine “unknown” with the redenomination is the “when” – The Iraq Central Bank has delayed it for various reasons number one being inflation creeping up again. The “what” is not unknown and hasn’t been for over two years now. Exceptionally clear information has been given – they’ve even described the new banknote designs in detail.
“The new currency will be printed after deleting the zeros and will include the Kurdish language in addition to the Arabic language. It will bear as well photos of Iraq’s civilizations and patrimony in addition to symbols of Iraqi intellectuals and figures, in addition to coins in both Arabic and Kurdish. This will include a new 50 Dinar bill with a value of $43 (50,000 current note Dinar).”
Dinar speculators don’t want to hear it out of personal discomfort and vested interests – sure that’s a given – but the redenomination simply is what it is whether it’s accepted by ‘investors’ or not.
I have made points politely, honestly and truthfully with 100% verifiable facts for those who are willing to view (which be honest- is the real issue isn’t it?)
:
Yes, [WE] must see the wild contradiction. You print more money – currency value goes down. Yet to turn $30-60bn into $30,000-60,000bn would involve… printing 999x more which would drive its value down not up! Likewise to make 60tn Dinar’s 1,000x stronger would mean reducing the amount circulating to 60bn Dinar’s (redenominating). You can no more “RV” them by keeping the same amount in circulation than you sell Snickers bars for $800 each just slapping a $800 price tag on it. It’s valued by the market, not some centrally planned Communist dictator. No-one else would trade the currency if it suddenly became 1,000x more expensive and still 1,000x more prevalent than peer neighbors like Kuwait (it’ll just instantly self-devalue again due to obvious massive inflation of an entire planet’s money supply all circulating inside a country smaller than Australia!)
I guess it’s one of those “big lie” technique scams – ie, a claim so outrageous that some people believe that no-one could have the sheer impudence or audacity to distort the truth so absurdly – and therefore decide “it must be true because of it”.
Finally you ask; "What is in it for the pumpers, site-owners and story tellers ?" Number one reason is profits. The yield [to a site-owner] will vary depending on the site-owners participation. Many props establish a site to self-perpetuate [meaning-function without the site-owners involvement]. ADS, ADS, ADS, Sell, sell, sell...which means revenue to cover nominal costs for maintaining the site continuance. The site may exist for dinar discussion but ADS may not exist for dinar purchases. Any purchase nets a payday for the owner. Hair and fashions, dating opportunities, incorporating LLC s, buying silver and gold....you name it.
From time to time the site-owner pops-in creating enthusiasm or like [chum-to-shark]..feeding frenzy. It doesn't have to amount to more than [hearsay][BS]etc........Everyone is excited ! [WE] all hang-on for another day, another weekend, another week, another month............another dream of riches.
I have done my damnest not too share this but having time on my hands and a brain that wants my body to-do jumping-jacks again, I could not continue to ignore math. Never did like math. WAY TOO EXACT.
|
|
|
|
