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I think my conclusion is bad news for my near future hopes


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#1 Rayzur

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Posted 15 June 2012 - 08:43 PM

I can't imagine anyone being more anti-lop than me..... and I nonetheless have this complusive need to continue research in figuing out, to the degree possible,..... what is being said by the Iraqi Officials with regard to their currency......

So I'm talking on the fly here without much filtering of what I have concluded, (as I don't want to turn this into a weekend dissertation project)....

Please don't bash the conclusion and instead engage intellectual thought processes of logic in meaningfully debating the merits of the conclusion and why I am absolutely wrong in coming to this...... I want the thinking behind this conclusion to be wrongly directed, and it won't help to simply state its incorrect absent thought as to why.....
so here goes:

1. Shabib has been quoted in numerous articles throughout the past few years as saying he was going to re-base the dinar/currency..... He has not been quoted using the words, revalue, redemoninate or reindexin any direct quote I have found or was cited (that I recall)...... He has in actuality used the word Re-Base (rebase)..... Here are but a few articles quoting this:

http://www.gulf-time...48&parent_id=28

http://articlesofint...sale-would.html

http://articlesofint...e-briefing.html

xHere is an actual article (for those not wanting to follow links) to a Dow Jones artical published in 2007:

UPDATE: Iraq Plans To Rebase Its Dinar Early 2008 – Fin Min
Thu, Nov 29 2007, 15:19 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu

UPDATE: Iraq Plans To Rebase Its Dinar Early 2008 – Fin Min

By Hassan Hafidh

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

AMMAN (Dow Jones)-The Central Bank of Iraq is contemplating rebasing the Iraqi dinar and issuing new banknotes early next year, the country’s Finance Minister said Thursday.

“The Central Bank will take a decision in three months time from now, taking off three zeros from the current Iraqi dinar value,” Bayan Jabor said in an exclusive interview with Dow Jones Newswires in Amman.

On Thursday, the dinar traded 1,230 dinars against the dollar, according to a trader in Baghdad. If the rebase decision is taken, it means that a dollar will equal only 1.23 dinars at current prices, the minister said.

Currency rebasings usually are monetarily neutral and are introduced to make commercial calculations easier. Turkey knocked six zeroes off its lira currency on Jan 1 2005, for example.

Before the U.S.-led invasion of 2003, the dinar was trading at 2,500 against the dollar. During early 1980s an Iraqi dinar was traded by Iraqi state-run banks at 3 dollars.

The Central Bank of Iraq has been working to improve the value of the dinar against the dollar through holding a daily auction to sell dollars to private and government banks. The bank sells between $35 and $50 million in each auction it holds, bank officials said.

The Iraqi minister said, however, printing new bank notes and fully replacing old notes would take two years.

In July 2004, the now dissolved U.S. civilian authority in Iraq decided to print the current Iraqi bank notes replacing those used to bear the picture of the former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. Iraqis then had three months to swap their old dinars with the new ones.

According to Central Bank officials some 10,000 tons of old dinars were then collected and burned.

The current banknotes were printed by Britain’s De La Rue Plc (DLAR.L), the world’s biggest commercial printer of bank notes. Jabor didn’t say which company would print the new banknotes.

Jabor said that the government was able to bring down inflation from a record figure of 60% last year to a current 16%. He said Iraq’s economy is growing at a rate of 6% this year and that the government wants to increase that figure with more crude oil exports, tourism and agriculture in 2008. Iraq sits on the third largest oil reserves in the world and depends on oil sales for almost all of its foreign currency earnings. Jabor announced earlier this month that the country’s budget for 2008 would be $48.4 billion up from $42 billion in 2007. Some 88% percent of that budget would be financed from oil revenues which are expected to reach $36 billion, according to Iraqi officials.

He said that his ministry has allocated $15.5 billion for investment in various industrial, oil, agricultural, housing and service projects in 2008. He said some $5 billion that the government was not able to spend in 2007 would be moved to 2008 investment plan.

While in Amman, Jabor met with Jordanian businessmen to encourage them to start investment in Iraq’s ambitious reconstruction plan for 2008. He did the same thing with Syrian and Kuwaiti businessmen last week. – By Hassan Hafidh; Dow Jones Newswires; + 962 777 612 111; hassan.hafidh@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 29, 2007 10:19 ET (15:19 GMT)

2. We've been saying RV, RD and RI, when the Iraqis have been saying RB for years....

We also point out countries like Russia and Turkey to make comparative assumptions......More correctly I think when it comes to an RB, we would want to look at Zambia....
When you read the articles it looks like the script the Iraqi Financial officials including Shabibi, have been reading from, word for word, in most of their pivitol articles about the dinar and what they propose to do with the zeros and why.....

Here is what is going on right now in Zambia:

http://www.boz.zm/BO...MENT_BY_BOZ.pdf

http://www.statehous...earchphrase=all

http://www.ukzambian...an-to-the-poor/


It looks exactingly similar to many Iraqi statement made recently with the lifting of the zeros on the dinar.... Even the conceptualization is the same in portrayal....
Note the chart of note conversion in the first link in the Zambia section from the BOZ (Bank of Zambia).....

This in turn seems to fit well with Shabibi's statements on decimalization when you consider it in theory, he is talking about moving the decimal point..... :

Read more: http://dinarvets.com.../#ixzz1xv2rO3Me


I'm not going to post links with regard to a defination of the word Rebase (RB)..... in hopes someone can find something that does not involve the hearing oriface of a baby bunny rabbit.....

And from this brief synopsis.... it seems that the conclusion would be that the bunny thing would be implemented first, with an increase in value following..... Of course many know this is a long term investment, and perhaps this conclusion is nothing more than a timeline indicator as to what is meant by long-term.....

And I understand the thinking that old and new notes will float at the same time and its my hope that they will continue to carry the actual face value as it is for a period fo time after RV... however the Zambia plan did not include that scenario.... as it didnt fit into this genre of economic algorithum....

Okay guys, please debate with me in why I have drawn an inaccurate conclusion from the above.....and that I am wrong in this possible assumption..... A bottle of aged Brandy to the one with the most compelling knock down.....

Thanks.... (and please, no negs)....... Tthe collective power of intelligence here at DV is such a gift and there are so many to be respected in their meaningful dialogue and debate...... bringing us all closer to what we must next do to make this work in our lives....
Thanks guys!

PS my computer keys are sticking .....hot hell weather here...and so any and all mis-spelled words are soley the fault of the computer..... (this time)
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#2 KamelKeeper

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Posted 15 June 2012 - 09:32 PM

Rayzur, I have much respect for you, your intellect and curiosity. I am not going to comment on your thoughts on this: I will leave that to qualified individuals that understand this stuff better than I.

But, I will say, I, like you, hope that you are wrong, wrong, wrong. This should be an interesting conversation this weekend. Let the games begin.

Take care.

Edited by KamelKeeper, 15 June 2012 - 09:35 PM.

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#3 keepmwlknfny

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Posted 15 June 2012 - 09:48 PM

Kudos to you Rayzur for doing your own legwork and I would presume, checking information outside dinar forums.......

Now you are seeing what I see and have come to realize.......the CBI is promoting a bunny ear....no one wants to hear it but these delete the zeros articles are not talking about the RV we wanna see....

The gurus are pumping it as a RV cause they are confused on how the process really works and as you have found out, the end result is still a higher valued dinar....it just wouldnt be the ones we hold....it would be a neutral event.... but all people see is "higher value" and "dinar" and think that there is no other way to a higher value unless you RV, which is partly correct but they could lop first and end up at the same position.....

We dont want them to delete the zeros is the point!! This is why I have a problem with some that pump the CBIs plans to lop/delete the zeros as our big RV....

Good job Rayzur.....
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#4 alan_coaks_3

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Posted 15 June 2012 - 11:58 PM

lol it looks like there only a few of us here that actually do some deep research about this. i thought i was 1 of the only ones :)




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#5 Rayzur

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Posted 16 June 2012 - 12:21 AM

Rayzur, I have much respect for you, your intellect and curiosity. I am not going to comment on your thoughts on this: I will leave that to qualified individuals that understand this stuff better than I.

But, I will say, I, like you, hope that you are wrong, wrong, wrong. This should be an interesting conversation this weekend. Let the games begin.

Take care.


I am sitting right there with ya buddy in the "I am wrong" bleachers.... and for the record, I am waving high the pom poms of opposition in the face of my conclusion..... Got my score card out and licking the tip of my pencil in anticipation of scribbling a kazillion points against the logic. Happy to be able to watch the game with ya as it plays out this weekend.... Kamel...spose we could get some T-shirts printed out before the game?

Meantime I'm going to pop over to Mexico and get some of their lidocaine ointment.... Guatemala has some of the worst and most unstable medicine preparations on the planet, and the baby thimble jellyfish stings are still exploding and making me crazy with itching... and no, vinegar is not cutting it this time.... I'm going straight for anesthesia.... lol lol lol .. I'll check back with ya later :D

lol it looks like there only a few of us here that actually do some deep research about this. i thought i was 1 of the only ones :)





The Howler monkies keep waking me up.... What else is a girl to do deep in the jungle in the middle of the night..... (besides scratch exploding baby jelly bites) :lol: :lol:
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#6 Rayzur

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Posted 16 June 2012 - 12:34 AM

Now you are seeing what I see and have come to realize.......the CBI is promoting a bunny ear....no one wants to hear it but these delete the zeros articles are not talking about the RV we wanna see....

We dont want them to delete the zeros is the point!! This is why I have a problem with some that pump the CBIs plans to lop/delete the zeros as our big RV....


Keep ole' buddy.... I've been doing everything besides stand on my head to avoid seeing what you are seeing.... and dang it, its getting harder all the time :D

Its getting to the point of desperate, and I now have to appeal to the intellect and wisdom of our crackerjack analysts here on DV for their help in continuing to avoid seeing this as a baby bunny auditory appendage...... I will continue to hold onto being wrong with death grip white knuckles in hopes it helps.... and I am so with ya on the confusion as to why anyone would want to promote zero deletion as the first step in this currency management process.... ugh :(

I know you study this aspect a lot... What do you think about the article from the Bank of Zambia vis-a vis its relevance to the Iraqi dinar? The parallel rhetoric seems closer than anything else I've seen reported for other countries...... :unsure:

Waving the pom poms higher while chanting the "I am wrong" cheer..... peppered with occasional scratching now and then.... :D
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#7 jon29

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Posted 16 June 2012 - 01:54 AM

End of the world. :angry:
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#8 jas428

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Posted 16 June 2012 - 05:49 AM

Its all open to interpretation but here is some food for thought:
If ( for example purposes) a 25000 note becomes "equal" to anew 25 note, there will be 2 exchange rates on the IQD; .00086 on the old and .86 on the new. (For them both to be equivalent in value they must have 2 different rates, its inevitable). So here's that food for thought....how would 2 exchange rates effect the electronic accounts? For instance, if I have 25000 dinars in a bank account (all electronic money so no physical bills to go by) which rate do they use for my account? Will I have 25000 dinars now worth 23 dollars (rate of .00086) or will I have a bank account worth 23000 dollars (.86 rate for the new notes)? Hmmmmmmm.
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#9 KamelKeeper

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Posted 16 June 2012 - 08:11 AM

Rayzur, your post has made its way over to another site, so this may go viral shortly. You have a helmet, right?

Take care, Rayzur. One way or the other, we are there for you.
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#10 keepmwlknfny

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Posted 16 June 2012 - 08:44 AM

Keep ole' buddy.... I've been doing everything besides stand on my head to avoid seeing what you are seeing.... and dang it, its getting harder all the time Posted Image

Its getting to the point of desperate, and I now have to appeal to the intellect and wisdom of our crackerjack analysts here on DV for their help in continuing to avoid seeing this as a baby bunny auditory appendage...... I will continue to hold onto being wrong with death grip white knuckles in hopes it helps.... and I am so with ya on the confusion as to why anyone would want to promote zero deletion as the first step in this currency management process.... ugh Posted Image

I know you study this aspect a lot... What do you think about the article from the Bank of Zambia vis-a vis its relevance to the Iraqi dinar? The parallel rhetoric seems closer than anything else I've seen reported for other countries...... Posted Image

Waving the pom poms higher while chanting the "I am wrong" cheer..... peppered with occasional scratching now and then.... Posted Image



Posted Image I went through that stage too! But the evidence became over powering when you spend time outside the forums researching the subject....it sucks....

But thats unfortunately what the CBI has been saying for years now....how it ended up being twisted around into something we want is beyond me lol....

If the CBI didnt compare its plan to other countries that lopped, it would leave a little bit more hope that it COULD be something good but its become really clear what they are at least saying....

Tried going through the links you provided but they wont work on my end for some reason Posted Image
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#11 jackster

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Posted 16 June 2012 - 08:48 AM

Keep ole' buddy.... I've been doing everything besides stand on my head to avoid seeing what you are seeing.... and dang it, its getting harder all the time :D

Its getting to the point of desperate, and I now have to appeal to the intellect and wisdom of our crackerjack analysts here on DV for their help in continuing to avoid seeing this as a baby bunny auditory appendage...... I will continue to hold onto being wrong with death grip white knuckles in hopes it helps.... and I am so with ya on the confusion as to why anyone would want to promote zero deletion as the first step in this currency management process.... ugh :(

I know you study this aspect a lot... What do you think about the article from the Bank of Zambia vis-a vis its relevance to the Iraqi dinar? The parallel rhetoric seems closer than anything else I've seen reported for other countries...... :unsure:

Waving the pom poms higher while chanting the "I am wrong" cheer..... peppered with occasional scratching now and then.... :D


Rayzur,

FYI, none of your links work.
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#12 bamagirl

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Posted 16 June 2012 - 09:05 AM

GM Rayzur... wish I could be the one to refute everything you say but I have been seeing the same things. I am still holding hope for a small RV before they go forth with the RD plans and I am also hoping parliament keeps it shot down... Good luck to us all and God bless.
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#13 Tripphood

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Posted 16 June 2012 - 09:34 AM

I HATE to say it but I am more and more feeling that Rayzur's theory is probably true. Like they say, "If it sounds too good to be true it probably is" :( I have to say that it is hard to find news outside of forums because any search seems to lead to dinar sites. I've tried to find other sources of news outside of Dinar sites but to no avail. That is what makes me wonder where the supposed Guru's get their info. I really dont have a lot of free time on my hands what with working and running a business so I'm gleaning most of my information from other peoples research. I know it's not the best but it is all I've got. I'm ready to bail and let reserves go the way of the dinasour. What I really hate is the fact that the doubters around me are gonna be proven right and I was SO hoping that I would be prospering and they would be eating crow, sounds like I'm the one with a mouth full of feathers! :( Maybe I'm better off with the VND.

Depressing :(

Like to know what Adam has to say about all of this. How can one deny?
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#14 jackster

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Posted 16 June 2012 - 09:48 AM

I HATE to say it but I am more and more feeling that Rayzur's theory is probably true. Like they say, "If it sounds too good to be true it probably is" :( I have to say that it is hard to find news outside of forums because any search seems to lead to dinar sites. I've tried to find other sources of news outside of Dinar sites but to no avail. That is what makes me wonder where the supposed Guru's get their info. I really dont have a lot of free time on my hands what with working and running a business so I'm gleaning most of my information from other peoples research. I know it's not the best but it is all I've got. I'm ready to bail and let reserves go the way of the dinasour. What I really hate is the fact that the doubters around me are gonna be proven right and I was SO hoping that I would be prospering and they would be eating crow, sounds like I'm the one with a mouth full of feathers! :( Maybe I'm better off with the VND.


I think the Bible says something about not rejoicing when something bad happens to the wicked or their enemy. I think the word was unrighteous.

If the IQD were to LOP, it would be wrong, if not inconsiderate, for a lopster to pound their chest and exclaim "HA! I told you so!"

If the IQD were to RV, the same would apply to the Pro-RVers.

Perhaps, this is something for everyone in here. After every ice hockey match, the opposing teams shake hands. Even those that threw punches during that same match.

Lopsters should congratulate RVers on their winnings. RVers should congratulate Lopsters on trying to warn them, or whatever lopsters were trying to do.
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#15 Rabbi

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Posted 16 June 2012 - 09:51 AM

Let's look at the facts, as we know them:

1) 1,166 dinars = $1.00. Stated inversely, 1 dinar = $.000857, or 85.7% (a little over 5/6) of one-tenth of a penny.
2) 30 trillion dinars exist. Ok, maybe it's a few more but I'm using the 30 trillion to make it simpler.

At this rate, the FMV of the entire money supply of Iraq = $25.729 billion. That's it!!! The FMV for the entire country of Iraq is less than $26 billion.

Let's say conservatively, there are known reserves of just crude oil 130 billion barrels of oil in the ground that is owned by the government of Iraq. (I'm not even going to bring all of that natural gas, gold, diamonds, and the plethora of other natural resources that is owned by the government of Iraq into this discussion, but keep that in mind as I continue.) Let's, for purposes of my example that the GOI will net $80 per barrel of crude (i.e., $90/barrel sales price less $10/barrel total production cost). That's $10.4 TRILLION people!...just from the oil!! And believe me, that $10/barrel production cost I quoted is high.

If they lop (or re-base) the dinar by having everyone get one dinar for every 1000 they currently have (accompanied by the removal of the 3-zeros in the exchange rate), the FMV of the currency still equals $26 BILLION. Even if they lop and then triple the exchange rate, that will leave the FMV of the entire money supply of Iraq at only $78 BILLION.

Does this make sense? I'm a CPA, and this lop-scenario makes no frickin' economic sense to me. Never has, never will!!

The value of the country's assets are not reflected by the value of the country's money supply. Bottom line, the currency is tremendously undervalued. Lopping (or re-basing) the IQD does not create any wealth. It's like a company doing a reverse-split of it's stock. If they were going to lop the currency, they could've and would've done it a long time ago. There wouldn't be all of this debate about it.
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#16 keepmwlknfny

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Posted 16 June 2012 - 10:02 AM

Let's look at the facts, as we know them:

1) 1,166 dinars = $1.00. Stated inversely, 1 dinar = $.000857, or 85.7% (a little over 5/6) of one-tenth of a penny.
2) 30 trillion dinars exist. Ok, maybe it's a few more but I'm using the 30 trillion to make it simpler.

At this rate, the FMV of the entire money supply of Iraq = $25.729 billion. That's it!!! The FMV for the entire country of Iraq is less than $26 billion.

Let's say conservatively, there are known reserves of just crude oil 130 billion barrels of oil in the ground that is owned by the government of Iraq. (I'm not even going to bring all of that natural gas, gold, diamonds, and the plethora of other natural resources that is owned by the government of Iraq into this discussion, but keep that in mind as I continue.) Let's, for purposes of my example that the GOI will net $80 per barrel of crude (i.e., $90/barrel sales price less $10/barrel total production cost). That's $10.4 TRILLION people!...just from the oil!! And believe me, that $10/barrel production cost I quoted is high.

If they lop (or re-base) the dinar by having everyone get one dinar for every 1000 they currently have (accompanied by the removal of the 3-zeros in the exchange rate), the FMV of the currency still equals $26 BILLION. Even if they lop and then triple the exchange rate, that will leave the FMV of the entire money supply of Iraq at only $78 BILLION.

Does this make sense? I'm a CPA, and this lop-scenario makes no frickin' economic sense to me. Never has, never will!!

The value of the country's assets are not reflected by the value of the country's money supply. Bottom line, the currency is tremendously undervalued. Lopping (or re-basing) the IQD does not create any wealth. It's like a company doing a reverse-split of it's stock. If they were going to lop the currency, they could've and would've done it a long time ago. There wouldn't be all of this debate about it.



In Iraqs case it is.....you cant count natural resources as assets to back the currency though....no one does....assets yes....and its shown in their financials with the gold/SDRs/foreign reserves....

They are actually backing the currency a little over 100% with their assets but the currency is too diluted to make the value much stronger without either expanding the reserves tremendously or cutting the money supply by trillions...
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#17 Tripphood

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Posted 16 June 2012 - 10:05 AM

I think the Bible says something about not rejoicing when something bad happens to the wicked or their enemy. I think the word was unrighteous.

If the IQD were to LOP, it would be wrong, if not inconsiderate, for a lopster to pound their chest and exclaim "HA! I told you so!"

If the IQD were to RV, the same would apply to the Pro-RVers.

Perhaps, this is something for everyone in here. After every ice hockey match, the opposing teams shake hands. Even those that threw punches during that same match.

Lopsters should congratulate RVers on their winnings. RVers should congratulate Lopsters on trying to warn them, or whatever lopsters were trying to do.


Agreed, I would never boast or rub it in anyone's face should the dinar RV.
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#18 Bull Dog

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Posted 16 June 2012 - 10:16 AM

I don't say much on this site but do alot of reading outside it. I was in Iraq on 04 working on the generals staff. Our command was involved in alot of what was going on in Iraq at the tiime. Back then, word had come down that this currency would not do any significant changes for at least 10 years. Now everyone says that has been pushed up with no solid proof. I for one am stickinng to my guns and the year 2014. This is a long long time investment and the Iraq's move slower than turtles. The old phase of three steps forward and two steps back does not apply here. It is more like three steps forward and three thousand steps back, if not larger. If an Iraqi were to tell you enshala after requesting some work, you might see it in two or three weeks if you were lucky and that was just with the people, not the government. They are still getting used to democracy and the killings will never stop over there. They have been doing it for thousands of years. I don't visit this site to much anymore because it has kinda gone to the left with these silly articles about everything but the dinar. I can get my politics from the tv. Bash away if you need to but this is just MHO.
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#19 umbertino

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Posted 16 June 2012 - 10:17 AM

I think the Bible says something about not rejoicing when something bad happens to the wicked or their enemy. I think the word was unrighteous.

If the IQD were to LOP, it would be wrong, if not inconsiderate, for a lopster to pound their chest and exclaim "HA! I told you so!"

If the IQD were to RV, the same would apply to the Pro-RVers.

Perhaps, this is something for everyone in here. After every ice hockey match, the opposing teams shake hands. Even those that threw punches during that same match.

Lopsters should congratulate RVers on their winnings. RVers should congratulate Lopsters on trying to warn them, or whatever lopsters were trying to do.

Agreed... That should be the spirit.
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#20 gatoraces

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Posted 16 June 2012 - 10:21 AM

the lopsters don't want it to lop. they are invested, also. they will not be gloating if it lopped, and will be celebrating along with the pro-rvers if it rvs.
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