63 replies to this topic

[SWFloridaGuy]

6-11-2012 SWFloridaGuy: This month is an important one for Iraq. In 4 days they have the UNSC meeting. Tariffs go into effect at the end of the month and on the 26th and 27th of June is the World Banking and Financial Summit in London. Shabibi of the CBI will be speaking and will examine the changing shape of global banking and finance in the light of the macroeconomic imbalances in the world economy. The World Gold Council, DeLaRue company and major banks from around the world will be in attendance. The agenda will explore the key economic factors that will shape the financial industry’s drive for profits and growth in different countries, and consider the prospects of a possible reserve currency system reflecting the surfacing of important emerging economies and the subsequent shift in economic power. In addition to Dr. Shabibi of the CBI, speakers include international economic decision-makers: economists, academics and other leading monetary figures. I don't expect a RV overnight but I do believe that after the National Meeting, if we see announcements of permanent Ministers, Erbil power sharing and the Strategic Council, the CBI will move ahead with their economic reforms and we could see a higher exchange rate on the IQD. For some time the IMF and World Bank have instructed the CBI on how to correct abuses, implement policies, improve economic efficiency, and enter the next phase of their currency reform project. Although there are still many areas in need of improvement (as we saw listed at last year's World Bank mtg with the IMF), Iraq has come a long way. At this point they may just be waiting for the opportune time and a stable political environment that will ensure the success of the project. Stability and inflation have always been key factors. Look for a date announced for the National Meeting and the outcome of the ones I previously mentioned. I am providing a link for the Conference Overview of the World Bank Financial Summit: http://www.omfif.org...nda 06 June.pdf

[Butifldrm]

Thanks SWGF. It does appear strange to me there are no US Bankers Speaking. This statement may be a little ominous for the USD:

. The looming internationalisation of the renminbi and changes in the global reserve currency structure

Looks Like S&P are gonna downgrade 5 of the big banks next week, here in the US. Keepin an eye on all fo this Thanks again

[jackster]

6-11-2012 SWFloridaGuy: This month is an important one for Iraq. In 4 days they have the UNSC meeting. Tariffs go into effect at the end of the month and on the 26th and 27th of June is the World Banking and Financial Summit in London. Shabibi of the CBI will be speaking and will examine the changing shape of global banking and finance in the light of the macroeconomic imbalances in the world economy. The World Gold Council, DeLaRue company and major banks from around the world will be in attendance. The agenda will explore the key economic factors that will shape the financial industry’s drive for profits and growth in different countries, and consider the prospects of a possible reserve currency system reflecting the surfacing of important emerging economies and the subsequent shift in economic power. In addition to Dr. Shabibi of the CBI, speakers include international economic decision-makers: economists, academics and other leading monetary figures. I don't expect a RV overnight but I do believe that after the National Meeting, if we see announcements of permanent Ministers, Erbil power sharing and the Strategic Council, the CBI will move ahead with their economic reforms and we could see a higher exchange rate on the IQD. For some time the IMF and World Bank have instructed the CBI on how to correct abuses, implement policies, improve economic efficiency, and enter the next phase of their currency reform project. Although there are still many areas in need of improvement (as we saw listed at last year's World Bank mtg with the IMF), Iraq has come a long way. At this point they may just be waiting for the opportune time and a stable political environment that will ensure the success of the project. Stability and inflation have always been key factors. Look for a date announced for the National Meeting and the outcome of the ones I previously mentioned. I am providing a link for the Conference Overview of the World Bank Financial Summit: http://www.omfif.org...nda 06 June.pdf

According to the pdf, Shabibi is giving the Lunchtime Address on June 26th which is "To Be Confirmed".

"The purpose behind the discussions is to build on the relationships built during last year’s summit, which brought together analysts, central bankers, commercial bankers, economists from private financial institutions and academe, in order to unearth the future of banking and finance.".

No decisions will transpire from this summit.

If the US dollar is the "international standard" and the US is not attending, then I would think that this summit as little bearing on world finance and economics.

Edited by jackster, 11 June 2012 - 12:07 PM.

[SWFloridaGuy]

According to the pdf, Shabibi is giving the Lunchtime Address on June 26th which is "To Be Confirmed".

"The purpose behind the discussions is to build on the relationships built during last year’s summit, which brought together analysts, central bankers, commercial bankers, economists from private financial institutions and academe, in order to unearth the future of banking and finance.".

No decisions will transpire from this summit.

If the US dollar is the "international standard" and the US is not attending, then I would think that this summit as little bearing on world finance and economics.

I appreciate your opinion but completely disagree as to it's significance, when it comes to outlining economic policy. Here's another link you can read up on. http://www.omfif.org..._banking_summit

[jackster]

I appreciate your opinion but completely disagree as to it's significance, when it comes to outlining economic policy. Here's another link you can read up on. http://www.omfif.org..._banking_summit

I don't recognize any big players on their speakers list.

Their main purpose is to build relationships. The building of relationships is probably the first and most important in any decision making. These relationships require time and therefore I would say that nothing in the near future would transpire.

And Shabibi is scheduled to speak during lunch. He will be more of background noise while the attendees concentrate on their meal.

[SWFloridaGuy]

I don't recognize any big players on their speakers list.

Their main purpose is to build relationships. The building of relationships is probably the first and most important in any decision making. These relationships require time and therefore I would say that nothing in the near future would transpire.

And Shabibi is scheduled to speak during lunch. He will be more of background noise while the attendees concentrate on their meal.

"The Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) is formed around a core of public sector asset and reserve holders at the heart of world finance. Central banks and sovereign wealth funds play an ever-growing role in international economic management, undertaking activities that require a high degree of confidentiality and discretion. At the same time, they need thoroughgoing interaction with the private sector to help improve their performance and tackle a variety of old and new tasks.

OMFIF goes to the root of the challenges confronting the world economy by providing a convenient yet discreet means for high-level financial market dialogue aimed at controlling risks and enhancing prosperity. OMFIF’s activities are crystallised around two essential areas: improving the effectiveness of individual public sector institutions through better asset and liability management; and increasing the cohesiveness of the new supervisory and regulatory arrangements."

Read the names again, of the ones that are "listed" in attendance are some huge names. I really can't see how you can brush off this meeting as irrelevant. No one is saying that a RV will follow the meeting or will even be discussed, as we do not have enough information. However, it is an important meeting with those who establish economic policy and Shabibi is in attendance. If we can get a transcript of the speeches after it may give us a better understanding of the direction they are headed. That is all I'm saying.

[jackster]

"The Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) is formed around a core of public sector asset and reserve holders at the heart of world finance. Central banks and sovereign wealth funds play an ever-growing role in international economic management, undertaking activities that require a high degree of confidentiality and discretion. At the same time, they need thoroughgoing interaction with the private sector to help improve their performance and tackle a variety of old and new tasks.

OMFIF goes to the root of the challenges confronting the world economy by providing a convenient yet discreet means for high-level financial market dialogue aimed at controlling risks and enhancing prosperity. OMFIF’s activities are crystallised around two essential areas: improving the effectiveness of individual public sector institutions through better asset and liability management; and increasing the cohesiveness of the new supervisory and regulatory arrangements."

Read the names again, of the ones that are "listed" in attendance are some huge names. I really can't see how you can brush off this meeting as irrelevant. No one is saying that a RV will follow the meeting or will even be discussed, as we do not have enough information. However, it is an important meeting with those who establish economic policy and Shabibi is in attendance. If we can get a transcript of the speeches after it may give us a better understanding of the direction they are headed. That is all I'm saying.

I reread those names. They be big in their own arena, but small on an international scale.

"...but I do believe that after the National Meeting,..." What National Meeting are you referring to?

[SWFloridaGuy]

I reread those names. They be big in their own arena, but small on an international scale.

"...but I do believe that after the National Meeting,..." What National Meeting are you referring to?

Here's how I see it: If Iraq has any intentions of raising the exchange rate in the near future, lets use Jan 2013 for an example (which is in the blink of an eye to them) than I can't imagine the IQD wouldn't be discussed as an important topic in a meeting where the whole goal of the meeting is to lay out policy and discuss the global economic conditions, since such a significant rate change with the IQD would have such huge global financial implications. If they aren't moving on the dinar anytime soon, then I can see it how it would not being a pressing matter. All depends how close we really are I guess. I certainly don't pretend to know. Just something we can keep our eye on and try to find the transcripts of once it's over. As far as the National Meeting I referenced, the solution Talabani is promoting is reaching a compromise through dialogue and then making announcements upon or after a National Meeting. The one they've been trying to hold for months that the Iraqi List kept boycotting due to lack of implementation on formerly agreed upon issues. The president is pushing for this meeting now and if they announce a date that means that there's a good chance an agreement has been struck because there is no point in having another National Conference that's a bust and one that Maliki's opposition just boycotts once again.

[Captjohn]

While I appreciate your reasoned optimism, the notion of the CBI waiting for the stars to allign in terms of political stablity has been a real life exercise in Waiting for Godot. If Iraq is ever to grab the mantel of democratic leadership in the M.E., IMO, they are going to have to accept that democracy is a work in progress and realize that having a globally traded currency is not the final goal, but a key step in achieving a more stable government. In fact, they may well find that moving ahead with a strong currency will help foster the national pride and political cohesion that they have so far been unable to attain.

[jackster]

6-11-2012 SWFloridaGuy: This month is an important one for Iraq. In 4 days they have the UNSC meeting. Tariffs go into effect at the end of the month and on the 26th and 27th of June is the World Banking and Financial Summit in London. Shabibi of the CBI will be speaking and will examine the changing shape of global banking and finance in the light of the macroeconomic imbalances in the world economy. The World Gold Council, DeLaRue company and major banks from around the world will be in attendance. The agenda will explore the key economic factors that will shape the financial industry’s drive for profits and growth in different countries, and consider the prospects of a possible reserve currency system reflecting the surfacing of important emerging economies and the subsequent shift in economic power. In addition to Dr. Shabibi of the CBI, speakers include international economic decision-makers: economists, academics and other leading monetary figures. I don't expect a RV overnight but I do believe that after the National Meeting, if we see announcements of permanent Ministers, Erbil power sharing and the Strategic Council, the CBI will move ahead with their economic reforms and we could see a higher exchange rate on the IQD. For some time the IMF and World Bank have instructed the CBI on how to correct abuses, implement policies, improve economic efficiency, and enter the next phase of their currency reform project. Although there are still many areas in need of improvement (as we saw listed at last year's World Bank mtg with the IMF), Iraq has come a long way. At this point they may just be waiting for the opportune time and a stable political environment that will ensure the success of the project. Stability and inflation have always been key factors. Look for a date announced for the National Meeting and the outcome of the ones I previously mentioned. I am providing a link for the Conference Overview of the World Bank Financial Summit: http://www.omfif.org...nda 06 June.pdf

Those attending are NOT major players.

CPE s.P.a. - is an import and export company which specializes in the wholesale distribution of tyres. The company avails itself of a direct sales network operating in Northern and Central Italy.
DZ Bank - a central bank and a commercial bank with a strong position in one-stop financial services. #5 financial institution in Germany

You are suggesting that the World Banking and Financial Summit, the UNSC, the National Meeting, the announcement of permanent Ministers, Erbil power sharing, and the Strategic Council will all cause a higher rate in the IQD versus the US dollar. Along with the IMF and World Bank demanding that CBI correct numerous abuses along with a political stable environment will produce an atmosphere for an RV. You say that that stability and inflation are also key factors.

I agree that Iraq has come a long way. But they have much more to go.

I will state that a 10% increase in the IQD's value will not happen for the next 3 months if not for the rest of the year.

Again, the list of members and sponsors a mostly average.

[SWFloridaGuy]

Those attending are NOT major players.

CPE s.P.a. - is an import and export company which specializes in the wholesale distribution of tyres. The company avails itself of a direct sales network operating in Northern and Central Italy.
DZ Bank - a central bank and a commercial bank with a strong position in one-stop financial services. #5 financial institution in Germany

You are suggesting that the World Banking and Financial Summit, the UNSC, the National Meeting, the announcement of permanent Ministers, Erbil power sharing, and the Strategic Council will all cause a higher rate in the IQD versus the US dollar. Along with the IMF and World Bank demanding that CBI correct numerous abuses along with a political stable environment will produce an atmosphere for an RV. You say that that stability and inflation are also key factors.

I agree that Iraq has come a long way. But they have much more to go.

I will state that a 10% increase in the IQD's value will not happen for the next 3 months if not for the rest of the year.

Again, the list of members and sponsors a mostly average.

Neither you nor I can say for certain how far they have to go. It's easy to say the rate will not increase for the rest of the year, far more difficult to list the reason why, which I noticed was omitted from your post. I do think stability and easing political tensions are key factors and so does the CBI, Finance Committee and the SIGR report who all listed this as the reason for delaying economic projects. We assume that once those important announcements are made the conditions may be ripe. As far as the meeting, look at this list of speakers and read up again on the history of what this meeting is about. My last question to you is if they were planning on raising the value of the IQD in the next decade (which is the amount of time policy gets laid out at this meeting) then why on earth wouldn't it be a topic of interest? If there is no hope Iraq will ever raise their exchange rate (which would make me wonder why you are here) then yes, you are right. There would be no need for it to be a topic of interest. Probably not much need for Shabibi to be speaking there either though. This meeting discusses "The outlook for the next 10 years." It is important. Am I saying a RV will be decided here, of course not. I am curious to know what if anything though you believe we should be following. You don't seem interested in either the Iraqi political or economic scene.
These are all HUGE names and will be speaking:
Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President, European Central Bank
Gerry Grimstone, Chairman, Standard Life
Prof. Michael Heise, Chief Economist, Allianz
Dr. Jeffrey Jaensubhakij, President (Europe), Government of Singapore Investment Corporation
Prof. Harold James, Professor of History and International Affairs, Princeton University
Eduardo Loyo, Chief Economist, BTG Pactual
Peter Norman, Minister for Financial Markets, Sweden
Saker Nusseibeh, Chief Executive Officer, Hermes Fund Managers
H.E. Dr. Sinan Al Shabibi, Governor, Central Bank of Iraq
Lord Tugendhat, Select Committee on Economic Affairs, House of Lords, former Vice-President, European Commission
Dr. Vladimir Vysokov, Chairman of the Board of Directors, Bank Center-Invest

While I appreciate your reasoned optimism, the notion of the CBI waiting for the stars to allign in terms of political stablity has been a real life exercise in Waiting for Godot. If Iraq is ever to grab the mantel of democratic leadership in the M.E., IMO, they are going to have to accept that democracy is a work in progress and realize that having a globally traded currency is not the final goal, but a key step in achieving a more stable government. In fact, they may well find that moving ahead with a strong currency will help foster the national pride and political cohesion that they have so far been unable to attain.

I agree good post.

Edited by SWFloridaGuy, 12 June 2012 - 08:47 AM.

[jackster]

Neither you nor I can say for certain how far they have to go. It's easy to say the rate will not increase for the rest of the year, far more difficult to list the reason why, which I noticed was omitted from your post. I do think stability and easing political tensions are key factors and so does the CBI, Finance Committee and the SIGR report who all listed this as the reason for delaying economic projects. We assume that once those important announcements are made the conditions may be ripe. As far as the meeting, look at this list of speakers and read up again on the history of what this meeting is about. My last question to you is if they were planning on raising the value of the IQD in the next decade (which is the amount of time policy gets laid out at this meeting) then why on earth wouldn't it be a topic of interest? If there is no hope Iraq will ever raise their exchange rate (which would make me wonder why you are here) then yes, you are right. There would be no need for it to be a topic of interest. Probably not much need for Shabibi to be speaking there either though. This meeting discusses "The outlook for the next 10 years." It is important. Am I saying a RV will be decided here, of course not. I am curious to know what if anything though you believe we should be following. You don't seem interested in either the Iraqi political or economic scene.
These are all HUGE names and will be speaking:
Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President, European Central Bank
Gerry Grimstone, Chairman, Standard Life
Prof. Michael Heise, Chief Economist, Allianz
Dr. Jeffrey Jaensubhakij, President (Europe), Government of Singapore Investment Corporation
Prof. Harold James, Professor of History and International Affairs, Princeton University
Eduardo Loyo, Chief Economist, BTG Pactual
Peter Norman, Minister for Financial Markets, Sweden
Saker Nusseibeh, Chief Executive Officer, Hermes Fund Managers
H.E. Dr. Sinan Al Shabibi, Governor, Central Bank of Iraq
Lord Tugendhat, Select Committee on Economic Affairs, House of Lords, former Vice-President, European Commission
Dr. Vladimir Vysokov, Chairman of the Board of Directors, Bank Center-Invest



I agree good post.

All currencies will fluctuate over the short term and long term. IQD increased in value 6.8% from Jan 2007 to Jan 2009. It has been flat since then. It's currently 1,144 which is 7.1% or 5 years. The US inflation rate each year is between 2% and 4%. This means a loss in investment as it stands today.

An accredited investor wants a minimum of 8%, but shoots for 18%-24% annual. There are no indicators that the IQD should increase 10% over the next year nor the following years.

S&P has retain their AA+ rating for the US. The same rating they gave them last year. Yet there has been no change in the IQD/USD exchange rate.

I did "read up" on what this summit is about. You keep telling me to do that. I'm not impressed. The speakers are NOT that big. They are "big" players in their own country, but not the biggest in their own country. Again, if the summit was so important, why are there no US representatives? This summit is more focused on Europe and indirectly on surrounding nations. Why are no US bankers present?

The stability and easing of political tensions is important, just like you said. And these will not happen soon. I do not need to state why it will not. It never has.

"Look for a date announced for the National Meeting and the outcome of the ones I previously mentioned." Let's wait for these outcomes.

[Lorre]

Hey guys.. Don't forget about this coming up this weekend too...
http://www.alarabiya.../04/218600.html

Something has gotta give... Have a great day!!!

[SWFloridaGuy]

All currencies will fluctuate over the short term and long term. IQD increased in value 6.8% from Jan 2007 to Jan 2009. It has been flat since then. It's currently 1,144 which is 7.1% or 5 years. The US inflation rate each year is between 2% and 4%. This means a loss in investment as it stands today.

An accredited investor wants a minimum of 8%, but shoots for 18%-24% annual. There are no indicators that the IQD should increase 10% over the next year nor the following years.

S&P has retain their AA+ rating for the US. The same rating they gave them last year. Yet there has been no change in the IQD/USD exchange rate.

I did "read up" on what this summit is about. You keep telling me to do that. I'm not impressed. The speakers are NOT that big. They are "big" players in their own country, but not the biggest in their own country. Again, if the summit was so important, why are there no US representatives? This summit is more focused on Europe and indirectly on surrounding nations. Why are no US bankers present?

The stability and easing of political tensions is important, just like you said. And these will not happen soon. I do not need to state why it will not. It never has.

"Look for a date announced for the National Meeting and the outcome of the ones I previously mentioned." Let's wait for these outcomes.

For someone who thinks this is a hopeless endeavor, you spend a lot of time on a dinar blog. I didn't spend my afternoons with the Heaven's Gate Cult, for the simple reason I didn't believe the Hale Bopp comet would help me hitch a ride on an alien space craft. It's none of my business why you spend your time on dinar blogs, but if I was you and I thought there would be no movement on the dinar for years, I would spend my time elsewhere and check back in a few years. This makes me think you do believe there is a chance and are just fishing for reasons to believe or find encouragement.

[zigmeister]

For someone who thinks this is a hopeless endeavor, you spend a lot of time on a dinar blog. I didn't spend my afternoons with the Heaven's Gate Cult, for the simple reason I didn't believe the Hale Bopp comet would help me hitch a ride on an alien space craft. It's none of my business why you spend your time on dinar blogs, but if I was you and I thought there would be no movement on the dinar for years, I would spend my time elsewhere and check back in a few years. This makes me think you do believe there is a chance and are just fishing for reasons to believe or find encouragement.

Good insight SW.....I would have to agree with you.

[Lorre]

Get happy guys!!! This is going to happen... When and at what rate is the question. I am believing for sooner rather than later. Way too many things going on in the world. Does anyone truly think the are leaving Iraq out of the equation? All their wealth is just being ignored? No way! Just connect the dots... Jmo..
swfloridagirl..(Nokomis) aka Lorre ha...

[SWFloridaGuy]

Get happy guys!!! This is going to happen... When and at what rate is the question. I am believing for sooner rather than later. Way too many things going on in the world. Does anyone truly think the are leaving Iraq out of the equation? All their wealth is just being ignored? No way! Just connect the dots... Jmo..
swfloridagirl..(Nokomis) aka Lorre ha...

Haha hey Nokomis, Punta Gorda here and I like your spirit. Rock on

[Lorre]

Right back atcha big guy!!!! Thanks for all you contribute to this site!!! We'll see each other in the papers soon neighbor!! Making Florida better than it already is!

[KamelKeeper]

I reread those names. They be big in their own arena, but small on an international scale.

"...but I do believe that after the National Meeting,..." What National Meeting are you referring to?

You are kidding about the National Meeting, right?

Hey guys.. Don't forget about this coming up this weekend too...
http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/06/04/218600.html

Something has gotta give... Have a great day!!!

Something has given - the IMF has been giving to Iraq. The IMF's extended SBA is ending at the end of June, which Iraq appears to have squandered. Do you think they will be funneling anymore cash down Iraq's throat while they are in political turmoil and horrendous corruption?

For someone who thinks this is a hopeless endeavor, you spend a lot of time on a dinar blog. I didn't spend my afternoons with the Heaven's Gate Cult, for the simple reason I didn't believe the Hale Bopp comet would help me hitch a ride on an alien space craft. It's none of my business why you spend your time on dinar blogs, but if I was you and I thought there would be no movement on the dinar for years, I would spend my time elsewhere and check back in a few years. This makes me think you do believe there is a chance and are just fishing for reasons to believe or find encouragement.

SWFG, there are many things I can learn from you, and first and foremost has got to be diplomacy....and patience.

[coleman619]

Is this meeting really all that significant? Or is it just more forum fodder....