35 replies to this topic

[EternalReality]

DONE


Fazil Nabi, Iraq’s deputy finance minister, previously confirmed to Rudaw that eliminating zeros from Iraq’s currency will not increase the value of Iraqi dinars. (Government spokesman Dr Ali al-Dabbagh also confirmed to Iraq Business News in September of last year that removal of the zeros was purely cosmetic.)

http://bit.ly/KTQe8Q

[TXNOLE]

That's it huh? Everything we need to know.........I for one, am glad to know everything now, thank you!

[magawatt]

Well OK then, so much for the dinar. NEXT!

[dinarck]

Its all smoke and mirrors. Haha...

[RRSport]

Its all smoke and mirrors. Haha...

Hi Dinarck

I couldnt pm you but was wondering if youd be interested in started a thread or a post listing all the reasons in one go you think it RD.
Im in agreement but too disorganised to collate the various cbi statements and pointers to it doing so.

[DaveD]

Hi Dinarck

I couldnt pm you but was wondering if youd be interested in started a thread or a post listing all the reasons in one go you think it RD.
Im in agreement but too disorganised to collate the various cbi statements and pointers to it doing so.

Pretty simple. There are about 32 Trillion reasons the dinar will redenominate.

[skrappyone]

According to the calculations from articles that were posted, they have recovered around 85% which leaves 15% still out. So using your figure of 32 trillion X 15% still out = 4.8 trillion they would have to cover. Now take into consideration the amount held by other countries governments that would not be cashed in but rather would be held for future oil trading, it doesn't leave as much as we figure. I concur nobody really knows the specific amount but it makes it fesible to do a straight RV with no L0P. Just my opinion.

[dinarck]

Hi Dinarck

I couldnt pm you but was wondering if youd be interested in started a thread or a post listing all the reasons in one go you think it RD.
Im in agreement but too disorganised to collate the various cbi statements and pointers to it doing so.

Thanks RRSport. Yeah a new thread is a good idea but really it can all be said in one sentence. Here it is. Hyperinflated currencies get redenominated or they continue being in a hyperinflated state. There really is nothing else.

Granted that Iraq could be the very first country in history to slowly appreciate their currency back to a non-hyperinflated state over decades with improved oil production and a building of an economy if they do not RD but lets think about that for a minute. If they "RVed" (or appreciated the value of their currency which is a better way to say it) by 50% a year which is unheard of by any country then it would take them 20 years to get to .01. It would take them 200 years to get to .10 and 2000 years to get to 1.00. Unless I am mistaken and countries "RV" their currencies by massive amounts (which they dont) then I fail to see how Iraq can get rid of the effects of past hyperinflation anyother way than by a RD. Do I want this? Of course not but how else can it be done? Bottom line is there is no way it can be done which is why we hear daily from Iraq about their upcoming redenomination.

Please someone correct me if I am wrong and show me just one country who has ever "RVed" by even 50% overnight even once more less once a year. Please.

According to the calculations from articles that were posted, they have recovered around 85% which leaves 15% still out. So using your figure of 32 trillion X 15% still out = 4.8 trillion they would have to cover. Now take into consideration the amount held by other countries governments that would not be cashed in but rather would be held for future oil trading, it doesn't leave as much as we figure. I concur nobody really knows the specific amount but it makes it fesible to do a straight RV with no L0P. Just my opinion.

Which articles are you refering to because I can promise you that they have been misread and spun into what everyone wants to hear and the opposite is actually true. If it is the good ole 70% excess liquidity article then you will be unpleased to learn that it has been debunked many times and all of that excess liquidity goes right back into the system. Just check the CBIs website for the actual numbers in circulation instead of relying on pumpers who use articles that they can spin to keep the hype alive.

Also dinar will NEVER be used to buy oil. Why would Iraq want their own currency for their oil? They can print all of the dinar they want. Plus they sold that dinar for 1/10th of a US penny and now they are going to give a barrel of oil for 100 dinar? Huh? Thats like giving away oil around the world for about 10 cents a barrel. Hahaha

Edited by dinarck, 29 May 2012 - 07:23 PM.

[WorkerBee]

Hey Dinarck, I asked this in another thread but would like to get your opinion. If.......all of the laundry list of items were completed.....Erbil, Chapter 7, seated GOI, HCL.....would they be forced to do something in regards to the IQD rate or could they/would they continue to play games? What are your thoughts??

[SPOTLIGHT]

Its all smoke and mirrors. Haha...

Your right

[cris]

The CBI , Saleh, and Shabibi have stated many times that
they will increase the value of the dinar from 1166 to the dollar, to
1000 to the dollar. Increasing the value of the dinar in the same way
that it was rising in value, pre 2009, when it gained over 30%
Then they will eliminate the 000's.
They've said that over and over....its pretty clear to me

[dinarck]

Hey Dinarck, I asked this in another thread but would like to get your opinion. If.......all of the laundry list of items were completed.....Erbil, Chapter 7, seated GOI, HCL.....would they be forced to do something in regards to the IQD rate or could they/would they continue to play games? What are your thoughts??

My thoughts are that all of that is meaningless to their hyperinflated currency. If anything it is all more reason to erase the effects of past hyperinflation off of their currency with a RD so that their new currency would benifit from all of this upcoming progress. What does the HCL have to do with 60 to 70 trillion in exsistence? The answer is nothing. A seated GOI is a joke. Who cares who is seated or not? Chapter 7 will give them more room to grow but again their currency is in a hyperinflated state which can only be fixed by a RD. All of these items have been great tools for the hypemiesters to generate more hype but are meaningless to a RV that is impossible.

I think my math is shotty again in the previous post. It wouldnt take 200 or 2000 years at 50% RVs each year but I think everyone gets what I am saying. Even one overnight RV of 50% is earth shaking in the economic world and simply doesnot happen. Maybe Iraq will be the first to have a 50% overnight RV but after the second time they do it dont you think whales would buy up every dinar in exsistence seeing how it increased in value by 100% in 2 years? Maybe this would be good for Iraq. High demand on their currency could benifit their growth. Then again think about this. Why dont all countries create demand for their currencies this way? Because it is impossible and that isnt how things work. Movements in currency value by central banks are not done to enhance the value of the currency but to balance the economy based on conditions at the time of the increase or decrease of the currency. It is done to ward off inflation or to generate import or export advantages and all of these are done in small increments not by 50% or 100% and definately not 100,000%. There are many other reasons that pegged currencies move up or down and none have to do with massive overnight RVs or all pegged currencies would do them. The HCL cannot generate even close to the equivelant of 60 to 70 trillion USD. Nor can Ebril or Chapter 7. They are hype driven tools. If thousands of people have been made to believe that the US was about to RV then everything good going on in the US would be used to hype up the upcoming RV. There is no such thing as a RV like people have been led to believe. Only SMALL fluctuations based off of economic conditions at the time.

The CBI , Saleh, and Shabibi have stated many times that
they will increase the value of the dinar from 1166 to the dollar, to
1000 to the dollar. Increasing the value of the dinar in the same way
that it was rising in value, pre 2009, when it gained over 30%
Then they will eliminate the 000's.
They've said that over and over....its pretty clear to me

I agree cris. I still am blown away that they are announcing this. This is hard to believe but it is clear that is what they are saying. Recently they have said that they will use growth in the agriculture sector to help justify this move but in the same article they said they will start printing the new currency in Sep. 2012 and introduce it in 2013 sometime. This doesnt give them much time to grow the agriculture sector which leads me to believe that they can already afford the move. Seems to me that it is the price they are willing to pay to have the old and new currency easy to use post RD. It would definately makie transactions easier but they really didnt have to announce that move. I think they are trying to ensure a sucessful RD by any means neccessary.

[DaveD]

According to the calculations from articles that were posted, they have recovered around 85% which leaves 15% still out. So using your figure of 32 trillion X 15% still out = 4.8 trillion they would have to cover. Now take into consideration the amount held by other countries governments that would not be cashed in but rather would be held for future oil trading, it doesn't leave as much as we figure. I concur nobody really knows the specific amount but it makes it fesible to do a straight RV with no L0P. Just my opinion.

I don’t get it. This has been on the CBI site for years now. It talks about what makes up the numbers they report. It CLEARLY stats that all redeemed dinar, redeemed means bought back, all those dinar are taken into account in the figure they post.
http://www.cbi.iq/documents/Key_Financial_Indicators_Documentation.pdf
a - Currency outside banks, i.e., the currency component of the money supply as
shown in the Analytical Balance sheet (Item 8) which is derived from the following sources (currency put into circulation reported by Issuing Dept. less vault cash(item 8.1 of Analytical Balance Sheet) reported by Research & Statistics Dept.). From December 2003, currency in circulation is the new currency issued by the CBI less redemption of old and damaged new currency notes.

The article about removing 70% of liquidity was massively misinterpreted by gurus. Stunning huh?
Iraq has had a 70, 80, 90, 100 Trillion dinar budget for the last 4 or 5 years. Imagine how many dinar have been put into circulation over the years with those budgets. What that article meant was that they had reduced 70% over the years, but they still have 30some trillion in circulation and a M2 of 70 Trillion.

Edited by DaveD, 29 May 2012 - 09:09 PM.

[DaveD]

Has the CBI actually stated they will go to 1000 to 1? Some in the Gov and a few economist have called for it. I know that in the Stand By Arrangements with the IMF they said they planned to continue to back the currency fully with reserves.
So… the M2 is currently 72.2 Trillion. Divide that by the exchange rate of .00085 and you get $61.2 billion required to back the M2 at 100%. We’ve seen articles lately that they have $62 Trilion in FX reserves. That’s not much of a cushion to do any RVing. Unless they plan to drop below the 100% backing level.

[dinarck]

Has the CBI actually stated they will go to 1000 to 1? Some in the Gov and a few economist have called for it. I know that in the Stand By Arrangements with the IMF they said they planned to continue to back the currency fully with reserves.
So… the M2 is currently 72.2 Trillion. Divide that by the exchange rate of .00085 and you get $61.2 billion required to back the M2 at 100%. We’ve seen articles lately that they have $62 Trilion in FX reserves. That’s not much of a cushion to do any RVing. Unless they plan to drop below the 100% backing level.

I have to say Dave that all of this moving to 1000 talk has me stumped but it is clearly what is being said. When this talk first started to appear in articles no one understood it and of course the Go Rvers shouted 100,000% overnight RV but it was clear to me what they were talking about. They have point blank come out and said that they will inch the exchange rate to 1000 all the way up until the day of the introduction of the new currency. I have attempted to start threads and begin a discussion about it but nothing ever really came of it. It has been my thinking for a long time that they would come to 1000 pre RD but I simply could not believe it when they said staright out that they would. Whether it was the CBI saying so or not is something that we can look back at but if I remember correctly the MOF was the first to let that cat out of the bag and the CBI quickly denied it for good reason. That was from an article almost 2 years old. Now they are saying it even more frequently and I do believe that these are sources closer to the CBI but I could be wrong. It shouldnt be hard to confirm. Possibly it is a ploy to enhance speculation before the RD. What good this would do them is questionable unless they are attempting to further strengthen their reserves with higher sales of dinar. Possibly a higher demand for dollars in Iraq is pushing them to unload dinar around the world in exchange for dollars. Problem here is they are accountable for those dinar whether they RD or not. That is one theory. Another is that they simply are going to inch to 1000 pre RD. This would make transactions much easier both with old and new and ensure a smooth transition into the new currency. Surely the last thing they want is a confused public about how much new dinar they can get for their old or how much old they need to buy camel saddles. Also think of an Iraqi attempting to buy something with a mix of old and new. If both currencies were on par with the dollar then all three are basically worth the same and can all be used without confusion to buy items in Iraq. I think they want and need this for a sucessful RD. Now......How they are going to pay for it and why they are announcing it are both items up for debate. Would love to hear yours and any others thoughts.

Another thing. I think that it is absolutely clear that the new dinar is coming in on par with the dollar. This to me is inevitable. They can keep the old dinar at 1166 and bring the new in at 1 but again the confusion that this would bring is to be avoided. Thought I needed to bring that up due to a failure to elaborate on it above.

And to all the Go RVers I dont mean a 100,000% overnight RV when I say bring the new currency in at 1.

Edited by dinarck, 29 May 2012 - 11:13 PM.

[DaveD]

They very well could tick it up toward 1000:1 before the lop... We shall see. Dinar holders love to use the term smokescreen. This could very well be a smokescreen. They are tryin to do everything they can get people to hold onto dinar and not dollars. This 1000:1 rumor could be just for that reason.

[jackster]

They very well could tick it up toward 1000:1 before the lop... We shall see. Dinar holders love to use the term smokescreen. This could very well be a smokescreen. They are tryin to do everything they can get people to hold onto dinar and not dollars. This 1000:1 rumor could be just for that reason.

I found this today. 1189 Dinars

The Dinar seems to be losing value and going away from 1000:1.

[DaveD]

Oh yeah... I have to ask the RVrs. Why are they talking about RVing up 1000:1 if the plan is to RV to 1:1

This makes it very clear they are talking about 2 different events. One is a small RV,.The other is a redenomination where all notes will be turned in for new notes. 1000 currennt dinar for 1 new dinar. That's delete 3 zeros.

[DaveD]

I found this today. 1189 Dinars

The Dinar seems to be losing value and going away from 1000:1.

Jack… you’re a little asleep at the wheel there. (no offense) There have been close to 100 articles out of Iraq over the last few months about how the dinar is sinking in value.

According to gurus Iraq is telling us they are going to RV the dinar 100,000% very soon.
Imagine for one second what would be going on with the dinar if it were true what the gurus claim.
Now look at reality… the dinar is struggling to hold it’s value.

Here is a chart where the CBI tracks the street rate.
http://www.cbi.iq/documents/exchange_rates_chart..jpg

They also track the street rate daily here on the auctions PDF.
http://www.cbi.iq/documents/CBI_FOREIGN_EXCHANGE_AUCTIONS.pdf

[jackster]

Jack… you’re a little asleep at the wheel there. (no offense) There have been close to 100 articles out of Iraq over the last few months about how the dinar is sinking in value.

According to gurus Iraq is telling us they are going to RV the dinar 100,000% very soon.
Imagine for one second what would be going on with the dinar if it were true what the gurus claim.
Now look at reality… the dinar is struggling to hold it’s value.

Here is a chart where the CBI tracks the street rate.
http://www.cbi.iq/documents/exchange_rates_chart..jpg

They also track the street rate daily here on the auctions PDF.
http://www.cbi.iq/documents/CBI_FOREIGN_EXCHANGE_AUCTIONS.pdf

100 articles? I've seen a few, but this particular bit of news seems to be overlooked in the News section in DV. All they post in there is that a small dog bit the owner of a shishkebab cart and how that is suppose to negatively affect an upcoming RV. Somehow, Maliki is responsible for the dog and he must be ousted.

Anyway, I was real proud of myself for finding this tidbit. Perhaps I should stick to annoying fellow members that submit stupid posts. We were discussing Kim Clement the past few days and it got shut down. Way to go, Easyrider!

I'm in total agreement with you about 'if' the Dinar RVs.

What I don't understand is recently members have been posting in the News section that 3 zeros will be deleted. Then other members reply saying that it is good and positive news for an RV to happen. People bought into the IQD believing they would turn $1000 into $1 million overnight. In some cases, 3 to 4 times more. Now, some are hoping to double, triple and even quadruple their investment as consolation. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the deletion of 3 zeros the worst case scenario for the millionaire wannabees?

Thanks for responding.