4 replies to this topic

[jeff12]

[SWFloridaGuy] I’m going to try to lay out a general overview of the current political situation in Iraq right now. The Erbil agreement isn’t really fully constitutional and contains additional ideas, the purpose of which was to frame a reasonable debate about the independence of the Iraqi Judiciary. Iraqi politicians are going to try to find a solution during this parliamentary holiday that lasts up until June 14th.We all know that Maliki received a 9-point ultimatum letter from Barzani, Allawi, Nujayfi, Sadr and then sent it to Jaafari. The message it contains is very clear: Maliki has 15 days to adhere to the demands of its contents or he will be sacked.

The demands contained in this letter include providing services for the Iraqi citizens, maintaining democracy, adoption of Erbil, ministries being governed by deputies, concerns regarding the electoral commission, dictatorial tendencies etc.

[SWFloridaGuy] Now, this ultimatum clearly states that unless there is complete adherence to these principles the Shia alliance move to withdraw the confidence of Maliki’s government and form a new one. The only out Maliki appears to have would be to say, ok fine I will “adhere” but only to what is constitutional while still maintaining the position that parts of Erbil are not constitutional.

In that case this could drag out a little further. Maliki wants a new electoral commission though and to get that he needs allies. Tariffs are set to go into effect in June and there is already talk that they may have to delay them until July. The noose around Maliki is tightening and if he wants to stay in power he needs to start compromising.

[SWFloridaGuy] He needs to come to some agreement on power sharing. Even though that may strengthen his opposition, it is what’s required to stave off a no-confidence vote. He doesn’t want to take that route. The only way for Iraq to re-enter the world stage again as an economic leader, not only regionally but globally, and accomplish all the goals they have as a nation is to move ahead with phase 2 of their currency reform project.

The CBI is waiting on the previously mentioned issues to be resolved. When a resolution is reached, Shabibi will give the green light to complete the reforming of their currency, introduce the LD’s, remove the zeros from the nominal value, raise the exhange rate and then….GAME OVER!!

[powerpager]

Good Synopsis !!!

[truthful1]

He made pretty good sense until he got to the last paragraph. im not sure if he knows what deleting the zeroes is???? Or if hes assigned a new definition to deleting the zeroes??

Do people believe the cbi would give specific details of a rv of 1000 times the current rate??? If iraq had announced even a small rv ahead of time..........every whale in business would of heard of it by now and bought every dinar dealers business. people would be offering more than the current value. please....someone tell me...how crazy a pre-announced rv theory is. theres no way the cbi purposely put out hundreds of deleting the three zeroes articles to announce an early rv. deleting the zeroes already has historic precedence many times in history. how are they able to twist this into a rv?? Im stunned...they can still pull it off

[Tripphood]

Does he mean the DREADED LOP ?????

[Amos9:13]

The articles are saying new money is coming out. That doesn't mean it has to LOP. Truth is you are going to have optimist (pro RV)
and pessimist (LOP).....I believe they are hurrying up on things so they can meet their September deadline. Small RV .06c to .10 cents to
afford the Tariffs and pull in money supply. Within 3 months it is very possible that when the new "currency" comes out that it will be worth close
to a dollar. Their exports on oil are about to increase drastically, if they get everything signed from the political side (great), and new businesses are coming in.
Iraq has much more potential than Turkey...they don't have to LOP. Turkey had to LOP...while Iraq is looking up....Turkey was looking down. You
can't tell me they waive a magic wand and say "ok Iraq your debts from the war are gone...wooosh." The RV is the way that Iraq pays for the businesses
coming in, the cost of the war efforts, and the rebuilding of their country. No one does anything for free...especially us....that's why we have dinar in the reserve. It's all going to have to do with the strength of their dinar and the trade game. We've started polishing up Iraq really nice...showing them the world... and saying "come in
we welcome you...but you aren't going to do much with your crappy currency." They've had a lot of help with this....many countries have a large hand in it. While
it's not going to be a huge rate that people like Okie says it is....the scenario is possible for a low ball RV and depending on how desperate you are...you could ride
it all the way until it gets to a buck or more. You could ride it possibly 10 more years if you wanted to exchange your old dinar for the new dinar and play the waiting game....it's a gamble...no one knows what they have going on behind closed doors...

BTW...don't count on timelines....another article has come out to mention January of 2013...which could be a backup in case Shabibi needed more time to get the dinar value to where he needed it. I believe they will eventually go to a free market....let it ride....