Starrdogger (TheLoneStar) Weighs IN
April 21st, 2012 12:45 pm · Posted in CHATS & POSTS (Iraqi Dinar Info)
DD,
After all the review of articles that have been coming out, and the blazen daily rate announcement, I felt it necessary to give my take on the subject. For those of you that know me, I have been following the dinar “intel’ for quite sometime. First all of those (that will be unnamed) that are calling for “cash in tomorrow” announcements are all incorrect. Make no doubt about it, FIRST the GOI will have to settle its instability, indifferences, and become a stable entity. There is no way we will allow an RV with a possible to be dictator at the helm. I feel the political indifferences are being worked out, and the fact that the Kurds, Al-Sadr and Dr. Ayad Allawi seem to all be singing the same tune is very profound. If those three entities are in alliance, they the seats to over throw Mr. Dictator, OR and a very big OR force his hand into delegating his power as previously promised, and start running Iraq like a country.
ONCE we see the political stability in check, specifically all the ministries sat, the balance of power distributed evenly between ALL parties, then we will see activation of events that will lead to the revaluation of the IQD. When? I have no idea, these guys are experts in delay, power plays, my camel is bigger than your camel type of scenarios; however I think it will be several weeks after the final GOI has been seated, smooth, and tuned.
RATE, I for one dismiss the 747, and all that crap, there is no way they will open at any rate near that level IMO, I see it near the dollar or euro; but none of us have any idea of the rate, all the rate talk by the so called “guru’s” is pure speculation. No one has see live rate on the screens, or back office secret rooms. The fact remains that the IQD has not RV’d and no one will see the numbers until it has. However, pure common sense will tell you the 747 numbers are just crazy. By illustration, if you had a Casino and everyone had a pocket full of poker chips on the floor, it would be the Casino’s best interest to get the chips all back to the cashier and exchange for real “money” for as little as possible. Lets just imagine that all the people on the casino has had these chips in there pockets for years now, but the cashier window has been closed. Now lets say tomorrow the window finally opens after years of being closed; would it be necessary to set a rate of 7.00 – 10.00 to the chips back into the casino vault? No, they could open the window, and set a cash in rate of .50 cents and people would be flooding the window. I am NOT saying the RV will be at .50 cents, just giving an example. Lets say the casino had 1 billion dollars worth of outstanding chips, and once the window opened after years of delay it returned .75% of the chips with now only .25 billion on the street; and all were paid .50 cents for example. Now, lets say the casino raised the rate or return to .75 cents; and all but .10 billion remained outstanding. Now, the casino sets a rate of 1.00, and now that they have most of the chips back in the Casino Cashier before again changing the rate, all that they just paid out to “purchase” the chips, are now of twice the value, so hypothetically the cashier would actually be making again money and loosing nothing for cashing in.
It is for this reason that I see the RV to be done in graduating increments. And for all of those that say “I would never cash in my dinar for .50 cents” would be the first in line at the bank fighting to the front of the line in the teller window. Dr. S is a smart man, and it would be foolish to reduce the wealth Iraq has taken so long to accumulate. It is again JUST MY OPINION that this would be the likely course the bank will be taking on revaluation. Ok, for those that say, “never will that happed” because if the world knows the “real” value, and “knows” that it will be traveling north, the bank would be hit hard with speculation and margin buys wit the Forex and stand to loose a lot more, if instead the bank just opened with the real rate right off the mark. My rebuttal is “timing” if the bank had these rate interval timed to coincide with the cash in, it would not give license to the large speculators to do the hurt CBI.
So in summary, my view is closely watch the GOI, and the fully seating, and full STABILITY of the country. Once that is done the game is on, and we will see a rapid acceleration of our investment. My email is NOT negative, but positive and realistic. POLITICAL STABILITY has to come first, nothing will come until this happens. I think the recent pressure of Kurds, Al-Sadr and Dr. Ayad Allawi is forcing M’s hand to either conform or get out of the way. M, is our problem at this point, and has been for a very long time. This baby could have and should have RV’d a year ago. Lets watch the Political scene, and see what rapidly unfolds in the coming days.
TheLoneStar
|
|
|
|
