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SynTurf

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  1. If I knew you better, I'd say brain dumps can be correlated to bad weather. Lots said there and lots to agree with. Keep in mind the elections are coming and we'll see lots of visits from the Iraqi contingent here in the U.S. to drum up support for their campaign. Jubouri will definitely need to be a Sunni candidate regardless if he wants to run or not. What we'll see in the U.S. visits is election candidates seeking our approval to support their position(s). Expect Kurds, Sunni, and Shia alike (not sure what Abadi has planned) to figure out the US position on the Kurds, PMU, and like the windy LilPony said, on Iran. What really makes it dicey is Saudi becoming conformist to a Trump plan, Turkey being a loose canon and the power struggle in the Kurdistan region between the Barzani heirs. LilPony - have you seen the condolences Masoud Barzani has sent to Suleimani for his father's passing ... calling him "Dear Brother"????? Has the man lost it? Then their's oil to discuss in the U.S.; Iraq is aligning with OPEC on production. And now it looks like Shell is unhappy with Iraq operations which can be an indication the IOC contract model is flawed. Regardless another big talking point with whoever will listen to Iraqi delegates in the U.S. Next to discuss is economics. Lots going on with Baghdad paying salaries direct to Kurdish State workers. This could generate alot of support for Abadi among the Kurds. But then there's the Central Bank calling on in-country banks not to sell foreign currency to Kurdish based banks; this sounds like something only Maliki could come up with. If this is enforced, then the USD auctions would be off limits to the Kurd banks. So much going on. But I can't concur more that Iran is a Iraq & world problem.
  2. WHEN THE BUDGET MAKES IT TO THE HOUSE THEN WE WILL KNOW THE BSA WILL HAVE AUDITED THE 2015 BUDGET AND THEIR REPORT OF THE 2015 BUDGET EXECUTION WILL HAVE BEEN SUBMITTED TO PARLIAMENT FOR REVIEW. THE 2017 BUDGET BUCKETS WILL BE ANALYZED BY THE RESULTS OF THE 2015 AUDIT.
  3. THE IMF ORIGINALLY ALLOWED 3.6 MBPD FROM 2017 - 2021 AND THEY ORIGINALLY PLANNED FOR 2017 OIL PRICE TO BE 40.30 US$PD SO THIS ISN'T A HUGE JUMP FROM ORIGINAL PLANS BUT AN INCREASINGLY COMMON PATTERN IN ALLOWING IRAQ TO ACCELERATE THEIR FINANCIAL POSITION AND GAINING IMF CONFIDENCE. THE PATTERN IS SIMPLE ... FOLLOW IMF GUIDELINES.
  4. Not only have they implemented all IMF conditions which were scheduled for 2016, they are already chiseling away at some of the 2017 milestones set by the IMF.
  5. This isn't smoke or a negative message from the CBI, here's why. Back in July when the IMF finalized their report, they projected the reserves to fall to 42.7 billion by the end of 2016, and they continue to project the reserves to diminish all the way through 2020 to a projected 31.6 billion. So what's important here is Iraq is nearly 10 billion above the projected total for 2016 which subsequently extends the number of months in which they can pay for imported goods from 7.8 months to nearly 10 months. This is important to show how they are actually learning how to manage their money appropriately by reducing corruption, and managing payments for imports, and this also ties to the control they are showing at limiting the dollar at the CBI window ... big time corruption and laundering control! In other articles they are allowing $3000 usd to travelers ... its all about controlling the currency. Paying for their imports has been a huge problem with them and then they were using the money they owed for imports to balance their annual budget. So the amount of reserves at this point is huge.
  6. Yea, I think that belief is all rhetoric. There is no proof that this is factual.
  7. National Guard law and Conscription law are two different laws but related. Conscription law is drafting personnel or mandatory membership into the military.
  8. Probably the most important step to the passing the Fed Court Law and the biggest step to the independence of the judiciary we've seen ever.
  9. What's really cool about this is that it will be implemented by the Governors of the Provinces as opposed to Baghdad. Abadi is following through with decentralization.
  10. If they don't comply to the oil arrangement they don't get their budgeted 17% (minus expenses) from Baghdad in 2016. It would be wise to play nice.
  11. Implementing the tariff law is part of the 2016 Budget; "The amended Customs Tariff Law No. 22 for 2010 shall be activated, in addition to Consumer Protection Act No.1 for 2010 and Iraqi Products Protection Act No.11 for 2010 to be implemented on all Iraqi border points to accomplish justice." There is also a 5% sales tax on imported cars, and 100% sales tax on tobacco, cigars and alcohol.
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