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rockfl9

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Everything posted by rockfl9

  1. DUH ! Isn't that logical !!! IF or WHEN a US bank IS "exchanging " dinar , then of course it would have to use SOME value as the unit of exchange . That value could just be .00068 or LOWER.
  2. Who is arguing? The only reserves the USA holds is GOLD, nothing else. The dollar is the preferred reserve currency of the world. WHY would the Treasury want to accumulate an inferior currency. In case you have not heard -- Electric cars and trucks are IN !!! Less demand for oil. Oil producing countries have seen their best days. The expectation of external investment in Iraq is very limited because of the restrictions of Islamic/Sharia law.
  3. YOU really need to take a course in International Banking. When Egypt switched to a float the value went DOWN 11% overnight, It was expected to be worse. A country would only WANT IQD IF it wanted to BUY something made in Iraq. Iraq desperately NEEDS to produce something to EXPORT besides OIL. Especially something that will use a lot of local labor. This is the private market they keep talking about . Getting something started and training enough people will take years,
  4. Rvmydinar : Longtimelurker is WRONG ! The Treasury and FED ONLY deal in dollars. There is NO market for IQD in the US at any exchange rate except for those individuals that BELIEVE in a potential RV. WHY would they give up USD just to hold dinar??? That's stoopid ! P.S. OIL is bought in ALL currencies , not just dollars. The bidding is formally one in dollars as a convenience. For example, a ECC country will bid in dollars BUT it will settle in Euros .. If a US bank were to EVER take in dinar . It would be because somewhere there IS an ORDER to buy it. Once that order is filled the bank will WAIT for another order. THERE will not be a massive exchange process , Ie 800#s , and special exchange offices. But IMO that will never happen.
  5. The Dinar RV has been a classic example of intrigue since day one . If you think the dinar will FLOAT , it is possible. But that means the CBI has thrown in the towel and no longer controls the rate. You dont want that to happen. When a currency switches to a float ( like Egypt ) it looses value.
  6. ???? WHY isn't the IQD "international" today.. In fact, NO major bank will buy or sell it !! Iraq does not allow citizens to take more than 1000 in or out of the country. Iraq specifically does not want IQD out of the country . Iraqi's must pay for all imports in dollars euros etc. The only reason to have IQD today is if you were planning a trip to Iraq, but they would prefer you gave dollars. NO US bank is obligated to do FX . It is done as a customer service and they dont profit from it. Generally you will need to be a customer. Smaller banks dont do it.
  7. The IQD is a PEGGED currency, that is MOF/CBI policy. The rumor that the rate is being HELD low and the CBI could UP the rate 10000% overnight is GOORUU POO! The rate is what it is due to the amount of reserves in the CBI, nothing more. The only way for the rate to simply double would be to double the amount of reserves. because of the number of dinar in circulation the CBI would need to ADD about 40 BILLION dollars to their reserves. Due to financial constraints that is impossible . As far as being able to exchange dinar at a US bank that is also a RUMOR. Technically dinar is EXCLUSIVE to Iraq. NO dinar can legally leave or return to Iraq. It is Officially a NON-convertible item.. All banks know that, so if they were to take-in dinar they take the risk of a TOTAL LOSS.
  8. M2 is now 143 T IQD ! M0 (printed Dinar ) increased from 74.6 T to 82 T so far this year .! So they are making more dinar. Not taking it in. So a 1:1 would now require 143 T USD in reserves. THAT is impossible.
  9. Re: Lithium America Corp ! I bought some a year ago at under $5. It got up into $20s but fell back. But still not making money. Average EV needs 150+ pounds of Li per car today. We will need a lot. Never found in pure form , effective refining is the problem. Another is battery technology. Don't need pure LI a compound high in LI will do. The battery technology is still in its infancy, we may not yet have the best . I see a great advantage in EVs . P.S. Parts of the omnibus Infrastructure bill in congress include grants for charging stations as well as an EV rebate of up to $12,500.!
  10. I had similar thoughts about younger generations 25 years ago. my fear was they would crash and burn and take me with them. Alas they are still here and there are more of them. The good life spoiled them. No stress , easy credit , Covid 19 would have been a good test but the government stepped in and solved all the problems for them. EVs seem expensive today because they fit in the luxury class ( or almost) with a lot of "extras" as standard . Batteries and drive motors are high on the learning curve. When they figure out how to make them economically the price will come down . then when the market matures some one will build the electric model T.
  11. A generating station regardless of the fuel used is a lot more efficient and cleaner . Electric wont replace all . There will always be a need for work vehicles powered by oil. It may take a while for the power companies to adjust but I have faith that the power will be there. actually it is easier to construct a power station than it is to build a refinery.
  12. STOP and have a THINK. The CBI can't create DOLLARS or any other currency. The FOREX doesn't create money it just MOVES it from SELLER to BUYER. 'BANKS don't BUY and HOLD FX they just broker it for a FX dealer (if they have one) SOOOO where is the money going to come from???? The FX dealer will have to find a buyer willing to pay the price. IT is called the GREATER FOOL theory. FX dealers are very smart people and they don't like to loose money. By now it should have been clear that the GooRoos that predict rates and dates ARE ALL LIES always were. The CBI is taking a lot of HEAT for devaluing the dinar . WHY did they do that ?? Because they gambled a lot of their reserves during all those years propping up the value when they should have allowed a gradual inflation. The small rise in the price of oil is not enough . They will see an increase in import costs due to world inflation this year which will easily eat up any gains in oil. I expect another devaluation by December if they want to prevent a CBI default.
  13. Accounting involves ADDITION and SUBTRACTION two very basic MATH functions . You must be confused ! Another thing The CBI can't know How many dinar are in-country , out of country , lost , buried or destroyed. So ALL dinar is considered In circulation no matter where it is. ALL 120 trillion of them . When a country DEVALUES its currency it must release MORE to compensate for the necessary price increases.
  14. It is a simple ratio problem. Dollars per Dinar. It's just Math. Now the numbers I got from the 2018 annual report, which I just happen to have a copy. I could not find one for 2019 and 2020. But note those numbers numbers show the exchange rate should have been .0068 way back then !!!! But the CBI was exchanging at the .0086. rate. The CBI website now shows the M2 at a little more than 124 Trillion Dinar. But they no longer show the amount of reserve s ??? So things could be worse . Maybe the 2000 number that the Ecomist brought up is the real NEW rate. .0050 !!!!!
  15. Dinarians have to take their RV colored glasses off and THINK. Iraq NEEDS a foreign INvestment that will put a lot of Iraqis to work that will produce a shippable product to the world at a competitive price. COMMON sense says it can't do that with an expensive currency. Some countries purposely DEVALUE their currency to produce cheap labor . Iraqis do not appear to have modern manual skills. Everyone tries to get a government (desk) job . Government jobs generally do not add to national income (GDP) . Another problem is that Iraq does not have the kind of natural resources that produce shippable products. Most modern manufacturing requires electriciy and water and those are limited.
  16. You are right SD. AND a RV of one CENT would need 1 Trillion USD. The equation for exchange rate ( EC ) with the dollar is : Value of the reserves in USD 68 Billion USD ___________________________ == IQD EC for the IQD today ______________________ = .000068 Total liability in local currency 100 TRILLION IQD No one can change that ! Oil in the ground is an estimating tool. It only has real value when shipped. No one knows what oil will be worth in 2050 OR how much will be needed, BUT iraq wiil have 40 MILLION more people to feed.
  17. There ARE over 100 TRILLION IQD in their M2!! An RV of 0nly 1 cent would require the CBI to come up with an extra $940 BILLION in the reserves. It doesn't have it and never will. Some pumpers are saying that the auctions have been removing dinar from circulation , that is ridiculous . When the CBI buys the dinar it goes right back in circulation as salaries. I expect there will be a new rate in December .. The IQD will become MORE worthless.
  18. The reason the rate changed last Dec. was the cbi,s reserves had fallen below the amount necessary to support g the existing .00086 rate. Now the cbi reserves are still bleeding dollars. They will have to reduce the rate next Dec. or become INSOLVENT!!! When that happens the value of the IQD will become very unstable (really worthless). I must ask , when ALL the reserves are GONE , dollars and Euros will be the only currency that can be used for trade. That will be limited to the petrodollar income. There will be a giant exodus....To where I do not know.
  19. A key element of the HCL is that ALL oil operations and sales be controlled by the one National Oil Company. The Kurds say that the oil under Kurdish land is Kurdish oil. They will NEVER give it up. However., they will SELL some to Bagdad for the right price. The HCL never had anything to do with the exchange rate. That was the Guru's excuse for the RV delay. The MOF/CBI have been raiding the reserves. AGAIN The reserves are what supports the exchange rate. There WILL BE a rate change in December , but you won't like it. I expect 1550 to 1600. Could be worse if oil doesn't get above $80 SOON .
  20. Central says the oil belongs to ALL Iraqi's . But The Kurds say NOT in our region. Our land IS AUTONOMUS by the constitution . Who is right? Their constitution has a lot of conflicts like that,/. The Kurds have agreed that they will contribute 250K bbls for an agreed part of the budget to pay employees in the region. BUT it is a cat fight . The Kurds wont send the oil until they get the money AND Central wont send the money until they get they get oil. They dint trust one another . They need a third party to serve as an escrow office. But my thoughts are that would be a never ending job.
  21. Unfortunately the infrastructure bill has become a cover for carpetbagging. Roads and bridges have fallen to only a small part. The Dems want to include a lot of pet projects calling them infrastructure ! They have to get it through before the next election when they may loose control. Some how they need to agree to prioritize and put the frills on the back burner.
  22. No SD I was talking about the Iraqi budget.. They "PASS " A budget just to be sure they all will get paid first everything else is smoke.. You can mark my words , come December there will be another devaluation which will result in enough dinar to meet the payroll for another year. It is not Biden's budget ! It will be congresses budget. Your state is probably in good shape but many of the less prosperous states have not been able to maintain or build new infrastructure. It has been needed for a long time. TRUMP did NOTHING . His MAGA program went NOWHERE. He is fortunate that we have a protocol that limits open judgment of past presidents for at least 4 years or their death. But a lot of his enemies might not wait.
  23. SD .. I believe you are right. The IQD WILL BECOME a true COLLECTABLE. Traded between Dinarians or just left in the shoebox. It will NEVER become INTERNATIONAL until the CBI begins buying it back from outside the country. WHY would they do that? When the CBI reserves are GONE there will be NO dollars to do a buyback. The VALUE of the IQD will never be more than it is today (and that is in-country ONLY.) The idea that the CBI would increase the rate and expect the FX market to trade at it is ridiculous. That will never happen!!! No one in their right mind would take that trade. The 2021 budget is a fiasco . It is $20Bn short and they have NO CHANCE of borrowing more . There was a tax and salary deductions in the draft to get some savings but the MPs were allowed to remove them , so the deficit is even worse. AND they are making more little Iraqi's every day.
  24. So most of the oil reserves will remain in the ground , NEVER to be sold!!!!! So the future of any country that relies on oil revenues is bleak after 2025. SA , the UAE and Bahrain are moving to alternate sources of income . They know these changes take time and they must prepare now! Fortunately these countries are guided by rulers that can force the populace to go in the necessary direction . The necessary skill sets need to be developing in short order. Iraq is not even thinking of reducing the dependence on oil income. While it is not very good today its economy is headed for a dead end in 5 years. They are headed for an election that will need to manage the country over the next 4 years, .But as I see it the new parlement and PM will most likely "kick the can" .
  25. The EU Environmental Commission rejected Shell Oil's proposal to STOP production of fossil fuels by 2050 as "not aggressive " enough, Ford announced today that they will go "Full Electric " , there will not be any gas engine models in plan after 2025! That matches GM's plan to be total electric by 2030. The US has not proposed any stop date for fossil fuel production , but if these directives are followed gasoline demand will automatically decline without the need for hard rules.
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