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About spacetuna

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  • Birthday 06/12/1976

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  1. Kurdistan oilers started taking off last August and then dropped substantially because of the uncertainty of the referendum. They have since started taking off again. Gulf Keystone Petroleum, Genel Energy, and DNO (GUKYF, GEGYF, DTNOF) are doing incredible the last two months.
  2. I follow Ahmed Tabaqchali on Twitter, he is the CIO of an Iraqi Investement Fund and he has been putting out some great info on Twitter recently. Also this excellent article-- CHECK OUT THE GRAPHS SHOWING THE M2 By Ahmed Tabaqchali, CIO of Asia Frontier Capital (AFC) Iraq Fund. Any opinions expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News. The market consolidated its recent gains with both prices and turnover declining from those of the prior month. Average daily turnover declined by about 15% from that of the prior month with the second half of the month seeing even bigger declines in daily turnover (see chart below). The decline in turnover was paced by declines in the overall market with the RSISUSD Index down -2.6% for the month and up 16.9% YTD. Daily Turnover Index on the ISX (green line) vs its moving average (red line) (Source: Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX), Asia Frontier Capital (AFC)) Foreign buying declined significantly from the strong pace of the prior month but remained consistent and at relatively high-levels in contrast to the on-off buying patterns of last year. Foreign selling dropped to the lowest level over the last 12 months (see chart below) which taken with the continued buying, implies that the Iraqi equity market is still in the early phases of foreign inflows. Index of foreign buying (green) & selling (red) on the ISX (Source: Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX), Asia Frontier Capital (AFC)) The increasing signs of the improvement in liquidity, discussed in recent newsletters, continued through the improvement in the market rates of the IQD vs. the USD. Given, the dollarization of the economy, it follows that the strength or weakness of the IQD is a function of demand-supply balance for IQD and not a specific USD weakness or strength. During the month the market price of the IQD vs the USD improved by about +1%, lowering the premium over the official exchange rate to its lowest point in a number of years to 2.1% from just under 6% at the end of 2017 (see chart below) Iraqi Dinar (IQD) exchange rate vs the USD Jan 2014 – Mar 2018 (Source: Central Bank of Iraq, Iraqi currency exchange houses, Asia Frontier Capital) (Note: The Spike in 2015 was due to a CBI policy that restricted the sale of USD, but was abandoned alter after causing a rise in parallel rates) A great deal of this recovery is related to the recovery in oil prices and thus government finances that began in November 2016 as evidenced by the gradual decline of the premium over the official exchange rate from 10% in November 2016. The first visible beneficiaries were the country’s foreign reserves held with the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI), which increased to over USD 50bn by March vs USD 45.2bn at end of 2016, and the IMF’s estimates of USD 41.5bn by end of 2017. This was driven by less need for indirect monetary operations by the CBI to finance the budget deficit given improved government finances. The improved finances were manifested through the flexibility gained by the changed dynamics of oil prices, which over the course of the last 12 months had a sustainable positive effect on these finances as Iraqi oil prices averaged about USD 49/bbl throughout 2017 vs. 2017 budget assumptions of USD 42/bbl, and YTD averaged about USD 61/bbl vs 2018 budget assumptions of USD 48/bbl. This was first expressed through a smaller budget deficit and thus less of a need for indirect monetary operations by the CBI and less borrowings, which should lead to greater flexibility for the government to allocate more resources to reconstruction and capital spending. Given the centrality of government expenditures to the economy and the declining cost of the ISIS war, the improved finances should be reflected by a return of liquidity to the economy, but, this is yet to happen. Historically the observed time lag between Y-Y changes in oil revenues and Y-Y changes in M2 has been about 7-9 months which suggests that M2 growth should see improvement over the next few months as the chart below implies: it shifts the Y-Y percentage change in M2 back by 9 months versus the Y-Y percentage change in oil revenues. However, this is complicated by the uncertainties and government paralysis ahead of the parliamentary elections on May 12th which will likely delay this recovery. Oil Revenues (green) vs the RSISUSD Index (red) (Source: ISX Central bank of Iraq, Iraq’s Ministry of Oil, AFC.) (Note: M2 as of Dec. with AFC est.’s for Jan & Feb., Oil revenues as of Feb. with AFC est.’s for Mar.) The increased liquidity in the form of both local and foreign inflows reported over the last few months needs to be maintained for the market’s consolidation to lead to further recovery, and for this recovery to be sustainable. The backdrop continues to be positive as the sustained improvements in government finances should ultimately lead to better market action: historically the equity market, as measured by the RSISUSD Index, has tended to follow the improvement in government oil revenues with a time lag of 3-6 months as the chart below shows. Iraq’s Oil Revenues (green) vs the RSISUSD Index (red) (Source: Iraq’s Ministry of Oil, Rabee Securities, Iraq Stock Exchange, Asia Frontier Capital) (Oil revenues are as of Feb with estimates by AFC for Mar) Given the time lag involved and the election uncertainties, this will likely unfold over the next few months and the recovery will likely be in fits and starts with plenty of zig-zags along the way. This continues to underscore the opportunity to acquire attractive assets that have yet to discount a sustainable economic recovery. Please click here to download Ahmed Tabaqchali’s full report in pdf format. Mr Tabaqchali (@AMTabaqchali) is the CIO of the AFC Iraq Fund, and is an experienced capital markets professional with over 25 years’ experience in US and MENA markets.He is a non-resident Fellow at the Institute of Regional and International Studies (IRIS) at the American University of Iraq-Sulaimani (AUIS). He is a board member of the Credit Bank of Iraq. His comments, opinions and analyses are personal views and are intended to be for informational purposes and general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any fund or security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax or investment advice. The information provided in this material is compiled from sources that are believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made of its correctness, is rendered as at publication date and may change without notice and it is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding Iraq, the region, market or © 2018 Iraq Business News. All Rights Reserved. Website by The Web Orchard. This Iraqsm2.jpg_large
  3. Breitling - Everyone Is Running Out Of Dinar !

    Safedinar , currencyliquidator, and treasuryvault are out of everything but the 25k notes too.
  4. Barzani in Baghdad next week

    I think this is the answer to why they want control of the Kurdistan International airport... keeps the bad guys from skipping town.
  5. I started paying more attention to what Kim Clement said after said "the earth will shake and then shake again" with Iraq just having a major earthquake. He also said- "There will be a break in the financial system, in the Middle East with the Dinar. Many will say why now?"" "God says I will bring them forth and bring them up and there will be a prosperity in a place where you least expect it". Should we be looking for them to float the currency and then for it to drop in value as a sign not something to worry about? 50 seconds into video
  6. Sounds intriguing! Tick Tock Tick Tock.... Trump’s mystery plan for Mideast peace Illustration: Rebecca Zisser / Axios Israeli and Palestinian officials expect President Trump to unveil a Mideast peace proposal by early next year. What nobody knows yet is the shape it will take or if the proposal will be based on creating a Palestinian state, which has been U.S. policy for the last 20 years. In the meantime, the two sides are on their best behavior to avoid being singled out by Trump as an obstructionist party. Sound smart: The U.S. "peace team" working on the issue is relatively small and very discreet — just five people, including senior adviser Jared Kushner and special envoy Jason Greenblatt. The entire process is being run out of the White House, with the State Department and other agencies providing advice and support. According to U.S. officials, Trump is the driving force on this issue and is personally involved. Israeli officials say they hear Trump is pushing his team to have a proposal soon. In the last nine months Trump has met Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Palestinian President Abbas separately three times each to discuss his peace initiative. His special envoy Jason Greenblatt has been constantly shuttling between Jerusalem, Ramallah and Arab capitals. Greenblatt's last trip to the region lasted three weeks, and Kushner, who is officially leading the "peace team," came to the region three times and spends hours every week in phone calls with Arab leaders in order to get their support. The small, close-knit team has meant almost no leaks and zero public scandals, mistakes or embarrassments. (The other members are Deputy National Security Adviser Dina Powell, U.S. Ambassador to Tel-Aviv David Friedman and Consul General to Jerusalem Don Blome.) What they're saying: Netanyahu told U.K. Prime Minister May last week that he's in "wait and see mode" and expecting a proposal late this year or early next year, according to Israeli and British officials. "I don't know what peace plan Trump is about to present and I am not sure anybody knows, but I am happy the Trump team is bringing fresh and out of the box thinking on this issue," he said. Abbas told a group of former Israeli members of Knesset that he expects a plan later this year and that Trump has told him he supports the two-state solution and is planning to make his position public soon, according to people present at the meeting. A White House official says there is no artificial deadline and the goal is to "facilitate a deal that works for both Israelis and Palestinians, not to impose anything on them". What to watch: Trump is counting on Saudi Arabia to help get both the Israelis and Palestinians to say yes to any initiative. Kushner builds on his close relationship with the Saudi crown prince Mohamed Bin Salman as a conduit for a much bigger Saudi role in the peace process than ever before. Kushner's meeting with MBS in Riyadh two weeks ago focused mainly on this issue. President Abbas was in Riyadh earlier this week to talk about the peace process with the Saudi leadership. Vice President Mike Pence will visit in mid-December and meet with both Netanyahu and Abbas and likely urge the parties to go back to the negotiating table. Netanyahu's political situation could be destabilized by a peace plan that includes Israeli concessions on politically charged issues, like borders, settlements and the future of Jerusalem. The ongoing police investigation against Netanyahu on alleged corruption makes his political situation even more sensitive. Abbas is in the midst of implementing a reconciliation deal with his rival party Hamas. The deal, which was led by Egypt with quiet support from the White House, includes the gradual transfer of control over the Gaza strip back to the Palestinian authority. A collapse of this agreement could have serious implications on any push for a peace deal. Show less
  7. China's New Silk Road flows from Iraq directly into Iran, they will be trading partners whether they like it or not.
  8. Iraq just imposed a flight blockade starting this Friday on Kurdistan.
  9. Travel Ban also expires this Sunday and a new one is being announced... The new rules are scheduled to be announced by Sunday, when the existing, 90-day travel ban expires. The current ban applies to people from Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen. As part of the process of improving the US's vetting capabilities, the stated goal of the original travel ban, the US has identified 17 nations that have "inadequate" compliance with the US's demand that countries alert the US to known terrorists and criminals.
  10. One thing that I haven't seen anyone bring up is that yesterday the Fed announced that it was going to begin "The Big Unwind". It's going to unwind $4.5 trillion dollars beginning in drum roll please... OCTOBER. Our economy is on life support as it is, don't you think some much needed tax dollars, capital gains, consumers buying luxury goods and investing newfound wealth couldn't come at a better time in history?
  11. Blue skyline, Kurdistan oilers are basically under a lease agreement with the KRG. KRG pays them for the oil and getting it out of the ground. This is part of the reason they are so undervalued, KRG was behind on payments but now they are settling the debt with these companies. They just settled with Genel and the stock has more then doubled already. They are all prime takeover targets by larger companies which is great if you are a shareholder. Western Zagros (WZGRF) was bought out about 3 months ago and I made around a 300 percent return when I sold.
  12. New corporate presentation out for Shamaran Petroleum notice on page 9 that Shamaran and Gulf Keystone Petroleum are sharing a massive 36 inch feeder pipeline for the Shaikan and Atrush fields.

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