Guest views are now limited to 12 pages. If you get an "Error" message, just sign in! If you need to create an account, click here.

Jump to content


  • Content count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

139 Good

About spacetuna

  • Rank
    Advanced Member
  • Birthday 06/12/1976

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Not Telling
  • Interests
  1. Sounds intriguing! Tick Tock Tick Tock.... Trump’s mystery plan for Mideast peace Illustration: Rebecca Zisser / Axios Israeli and Palestinian officials expect President Trump to unveil a Mideast peace proposal by early next year. What nobody knows yet is the shape it will take or if the proposal will be based on creating a Palestinian state, which has been U.S. policy for the last 20 years. In the meantime, the two sides are on their best behavior to avoid being singled out by Trump as an obstructionist party. Sound smart: The U.S. "peace team" working on the issue is relatively small and very discreet — just five people, including senior adviser Jared Kushner and special envoy Jason Greenblatt. The entire process is being run out of the White House, with the State Department and other agencies providing advice and support. According to U.S. officials, Trump is the driving force on this issue and is personally involved. Israeli officials say they hear Trump is pushing his team to have a proposal soon. In the last nine months Trump has met Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Palestinian President Abbas separately three times each to discuss his peace initiative. His special envoy Jason Greenblatt has been constantly shuttling between Jerusalem, Ramallah and Arab capitals. Greenblatt's last trip to the region lasted three weeks, and Kushner, who is officially leading the "peace team," came to the region three times and spends hours every week in phone calls with Arab leaders in order to get their support. The small, close-knit team has meant almost no leaks and zero public scandals, mistakes or embarrassments. (The other members are Deputy National Security Adviser Dina Powell, U.S. Ambassador to Tel-Aviv David Friedman and Consul General to Jerusalem Don Blome.) What they're saying: Netanyahu told U.K. Prime Minister May last week that he's in "wait and see mode" and expecting a proposal late this year or early next year, according to Israeli and British officials. "I don't know what peace plan Trump is about to present and I am not sure anybody knows, but I am happy the Trump team is bringing fresh and out of the box thinking on this issue," he said. Abbas told a group of former Israeli members of Knesset that he expects a plan later this year and that Trump has told him he supports the two-state solution and is planning to make his position public soon, according to people present at the meeting. A White House official says there is no artificial deadline and the goal is to "facilitate a deal that works for both Israelis and Palestinians, not to impose anything on them". What to watch: Trump is counting on Saudi Arabia to help get both the Israelis and Palestinians to say yes to any initiative. Kushner builds on his close relationship with the Saudi crown prince Mohamed Bin Salman as a conduit for a much bigger Saudi role in the peace process than ever before. Kushner's meeting with MBS in Riyadh two weeks ago focused mainly on this issue. President Abbas was in Riyadh earlier this week to talk about the peace process with the Saudi leadership. Vice President Mike Pence will visit in mid-December and meet with both Netanyahu and Abbas and likely urge the parties to go back to the negotiating table. Netanyahu's political situation could be destabilized by a peace plan that includes Israeli concessions on politically charged issues, like borders, settlements and the future of Jerusalem. The ongoing police investigation against Netanyahu on alleged corruption makes his political situation even more sensitive. Abbas is in the midst of implementing a reconciliation deal with his rival party Hamas. The deal, which was led by Egypt with quiet support from the White House, includes the gradual transfer of control over the Gaza strip back to the Palestinian authority. A collapse of this agreement could have serious implications on any push for a peace deal. Show less
  2. China's New Silk Road flows from Iraq directly into Iran, they will be trading partners whether they like it or not.
  3. Iraq just imposed a flight blockade starting this Friday on Kurdistan.
  4. Travel Ban also expires this Sunday and a new one is being announced... The new rules are scheduled to be announced by Sunday, when the existing, 90-day travel ban expires. The current ban applies to people from Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen. As part of the process of improving the US's vetting capabilities, the stated goal of the original travel ban, the US has identified 17 nations that have "inadequate" compliance with the US's demand that countries alert the US to known terrorists and criminals.
  5. One thing that I haven't seen anyone bring up is that yesterday the Fed announced that it was going to begin "The Big Unwind". It's going to unwind $4.5 trillion dollars beginning in drum roll please... OCTOBER. Our economy is on life support as it is, don't you think some much needed tax dollars, capital gains, consumers buying luxury goods and investing newfound wealth couldn't come at a better time in history?
  6. Blue skyline, Kurdistan oilers are basically under a lease agreement with the KRG. KRG pays them for the oil and getting it out of the ground. This is part of the reason they are so undervalued, KRG was behind on payments but now they are settling the debt with these companies. They just settled with Genel and the stock has more then doubled already. They are all prime takeover targets by larger companies which is great if you are a shareholder. Western Zagros (WZGRF) was bought out about 3 months ago and I made around a 300 percent return when I sold.
  7. New corporate presentation out for Shamaran Petroleum notice on page 9 that Shamaran and Gulf Keystone Petroleum are sharing a massive 36 inch feeder pipeline for the Shaikan and Atrush fields.
  8. Shamaran Petroleum up 6% and Gulf Keystone Petroleum/ DNO are up another 3% today,. Botzwana- No problem- I am heavily invested in these companies so I keep tabs everyday anyways.
  9. KRG made it's settlement with Dana Gas today... Gulf Keystone Petroleum will be next!
  10. KRG has now settled backpayments with Genel Energy, DNO, and Dana Gas. Be on the lookout for them to settle with Gulf Keystone Petroleum next.
  11. Genel Energy – new SOTP of 231p per share News last week out of Genel Energy was a welcome shot in the arm for bulls of the stock. The three way deal between the KRG (Kurdistan Regional Government), DNO of Norway and Genel in relation to the outstanding historic receivables and future production and contingent payment obligations on the part of DNO & Genel was a win/win for all parties. Under the deal, Genel has agreed to write off the receivables figure due from the KRG and which was in the balance sheet at just over $200m at the end of June. In return, the company will receive an additional 4.5% of the key Tawke field revenue on a gross basis until 31 July 2022. In effect, the KRG has agreed to repay the outstanding sum out of future cash flows as opposed to a lump sum now. There is of course a discount applied to future cash flows and it does move the risk of oil price movement further into Genel’s camp but, contrasted with where DNO & Genel were prior to the deal announcement, this is, in our opinion, a great deal for shareholders. If, as we also expect, oil prices rise to $60-70 a barrel over this period then there is a double positive whammy re receiving incremental revenue at a higher base. Further, the capacity building requirement on Genel over the entire life of the Tawke field has also been waived. And finally, as part of the deal, there is also a $30m immediate saving on the PSC liabilities on Genel’s part on both Taq Taq and Tawke. The company made the following statement in the RNS release on 24th August (bold highlight by us) – “Tawke field gross production has averaged c.109,000 bopd in the year to 31 July 2017, with Brent prices averaging c.$51/bbl.Assuming similar production and oil prices over the period from 1 August 2017 to 31 December 2017, the Genel Override would generate proceeds of c.$30 million and the Tawke CBP elimination would result in c.$12 million of savings in the period.” What this reveals is that on annual run basis at current production rates and the present oil prices is a positive swing of just over $100m to Genel in revenues. Importantly, we expect this to largely hit the bottom line too. Being conservative and running the oil price deck out to 31 July 2022 at the current $51/bbl as opposed to $70 by many oil experts thus means the old receivables fig will be paid back in 2 years and that Genel now has a circa $100m p.a. uplift from Aug 2017 onwards. This is a great deal for them and supplies the company incremental cash flow to (a) address debt repayments due in 2019 either by partial repayment or, with the enhanced cash flows and balance sheet, a refinance of this debt and (b) allows them to progress the all important gas monetisation program , highlighted specifically by new CEO Murat Ozgul as a major catalyst for a dramatic change in the company’s fortunes. News has been slated to be revealed in this respect before the year is out. To conclude, based on the half year figures in which the company produced free cash flow of $54.9m after interest payments, the pro forma FCF figure for 2018 after interest payments (based on current oil prices) could be in excess of $100m. This, as alluded to above, kicks any debt repayment/refinance question well and truly into the long grass too. It also gives Genel much more flexibility and negotiating capacity re Bina Bawi & Miran. With a current market cap of £429m, as we highlighted HERE in April where broke down our sum of the parts valuation (SOTP) which included the KRG receivables figure of $253m at the time. Taking this out now and adding the pro forma incremental $500m ($100m p.a) net to Genel through to 31 Jul 2022 in increased cash flows and discounting at a conservative 10% rate over the 5 years gives am NPV on this replacement component of $379.2m. Net increment to our NPV is thus 35p per share producing (based on the current FX rate of $1.28) a new SOTP of £2.31 per share. We in fact expect to upgrade this target as news on the Peshkabir wells is released and the gas assets progress to key stages. In short, we would not be surprised to see a 300p+ price in the next 6-9 months. This is one stock that the City analyst community has got horribly wrong with almost all of the main houses suggesting Sell or at best Hold recommendations. This also emboldens us in our Conviction Buy call as it means that the fund managers that follow these analysts are likely to be underweight and there will be catch up by both parties that have called this wrong. Gulf Keystone Petroleum – New Conviction Buy Call. Price Target 200p Our last comments on GKP back in April proved modestly less successful relative to our call on Genel with our expecting a short term move to 160p. Instead, completely contrary to what the news flow would have dictated on the stock, the shares declined to the early 90’s in recent weeks with us perpetually scratching our heads at the lowly valuation. Indeed at the turn of the year we actually expected the bid speculation that was doing the rounds re China’s SINOPEC to come to fruition. Given the continued retracement in the stock back towards the lowly DNO bid level tabled at the end of last year and rebuffed by management, we have taken the opportunity to build a decent position in the name. At the current price of 116p we believe the stock to be at least 50% undervalued and expect a sharp re-rating post the results for the first half slated for 19 September. Our reasoning is as follows – in the first instance, as the company stated on the 14th August, that it’s current cash position is now a shade over $140m. In early April it stood at $112.7 which tells us that the company is generating circa $6.8m of free cash flow per month at current oil prices. Given the current market cap £265m and adjusting for the gross debt figure of $100m gives us a current EV of £234m. Put another way this is just 3.6 times FCF at current oil prices or a 27.8% yield. Nonsense is the word we would apply here. And we highly doubt that it has escaped others attention, particularly DNO given their renewed balance sheet position post the KRG payment amends. Additionally, there is still in excess of $60m of arrears due to the company from the KRG and we find it inconceivable that the KRG would not do a deal with GKP akin to that struck with DNO & Genel. With the company expected to get to the 60k bopd from the Shaikin field as we move through 2018 the undervaluation becomes even more stark. If they get to this level, and they have the balance sheet flexibility to do so now, against the current production rate of @ 35k bopd we could be in the seeming position of seeing the stock trading at less than 2 times Free Cash Flow at the current price. I highly doubt this would remain the case for long. To put the veritable “icing” on the valuation cake, we also remind the market that the net to the company 2P/EV reserves figure is just 65 pence per barrel. In the parlance – “nuff said”, this is a raging buy to us and we intend to add to our position in the days ahead. The stock has become our number one small/mid cap oil play and is another one that is under the radar of the City institutions. We move to a Conviction Buy stance with a price target of 200p. DISCLOSURE & RISK WARNING A Director of Align Research Ltd holds a personal interest in both Genel Energy & Gulf Keystone Petroleum and is bound to Align Research’s company dealing policy ensuring open and adequate disclosure. Align Research Ltd also holds a position in Gulf Keystone Petroleum. Full details can be found on our website here (“Legals”). Nothing in this report should be construed as advice, an offer, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities by us. As we have no knowledge of your individual situation and circumstances the investment(s) covered may not be suitable for you. You should not make any investment decision without consulting a fully qualified financial advisor. Your capital is at risk by investing in securities and the income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future results. The marketability of some of the companies we cover is limited and you may have difficulty buying or selling in volume. Additionally, given the smaller capitalisation bias of our coverage, the companies we cover should be considered as high risk.
  12. Hi NEP- Yes, you can buy through Etrade. Here are all the Kurdistan Oilers available in the US market... Gulf Keystone Petroleum- GUKYF Genel Energy- GEGYF DNO ASA- DTNOF Shamaran Petroleum- SHASF Oryx Petroleum- ORXPF Range Energy Resources- RGOZF Good read... Rewarding the Bold (a primer on Kurdistan's Independent E&P Companies's-independent-E&P-companies.pdf

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.