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TexAg91

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About TexAg91

  • Birthday 11/11/1966

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    Deep in the heart of the Lone Star State
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    CBI, Dinar, Pre-RV, RV, Post-RV, OSI. You know, the usual.

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  1. My understanding (and I do use that term pretty loosely) is that, while not *impossible* at all, the CBI would be reluctant to make any substantial adjustments to the IQD, in our favor, without an HCL passed and implemented, to further demonstrate national political stability and consistency of vision. Now, conversely, they aren't *required* to revalue the IQD at some specified time after an HCL is passed and implemented. However, the thinking/belief is that an HCL is really the last major political/policy/governmental "obstacle" or "objective" to be accomplished and that an RV afterwards would then mainly be based on external financial considerations. Bottom line, I don't assume an RV will ever actually occur, until I see that they've actually managed to bring the HCL to a basic parliamentary vote (they haven't even been able to do that yet), pass or fail. If they actually manage to get the National Oil and Gas law up for a full vote, then I'll start to lose a little sleep at night. Until then? I just just check back here every week or two, to see if something interesting along those lines has taken place.
  2. Step 1: See can Step 2: Approach can. Step 3: Kick can with all your might. Step4: Go to Step1.
  3. Everyone, keep in mind that, highly likely, there will be no meaningful rate change of any amount (meaningful from our perspective) until we see the establishment of the National Oil Company via the related legislation. Now, it may well be 2-4 years until that occurs. Who knows. Just saying don't get too excited or down until you start hearing about a draft sent from committee for pre-vote review, just like they did with the budget. If you'll remember, there were mentions by (someone, I can't remember) a finance committee person saying they had some form of a national oil company bill for review mostly ready to go but that they were waiting until all of the dust from the budget passage settled before considering sending it out for review. I would like to think we'll start hearing about that again, come Jun/Jul. More than any of this though, I'd like to hear from Adam about all of this. Enough newsworthy things have taken place since his last update that there'd be no shortage of content.
  4. It puzzles me that this is even a "thing". Did the Kurds not have a voting delegation in Baghdad to vote on the IRAQI budget? Seems to me it would be like having everyone in congress lawfully pass budget legislation, with full state representation, and then, after the budget passed, Texas still reserved the "right" to revisit the budget and vote again, on their own, as to what part, or parts, of it they would choose to abide by. That's not federalism, that's anarchy.
  5. I assume that while many things are happening behind the scenes, I don't expect anything major like financial announcements until after completion of Ramadan. Hence if there are any new developments to announce, like National Oil Company (HCL) law or currency/exchange developments, I would expect those no earlier than mid/late May. If we're into July+ and still have heard nothing regarding either of those topics, we are likely in for more waiting (like into 2022 type waiting).
  6. I actually *sort of* agree with Kaperoni, except that there will be a change from 1450-ish back to 1120-30-ish, I'm guessing right after Ramadan. Beyond that, I want to see conclusive evidence that the National Oil Company (HCL) Law has been submitted and passed before I'll spend any time worrying about "our" RV.
  7. Don’t worry TexasMike, the national oil company law, which is also known as the hcl was not ever going to be in the budget anyway. At some point they will pass a budget. At some point afterwards the oil company law will be submitted. They might get the budget passed before Ramadan. Might be after. I doubt during. don’t get swept up in the hype. Positive or negative. Let’s just see what the next couple of months bring. I think it will be then before we have a better idea of what’s coming.
  8. Once the National Oil Company is voted on and approved, I imagine that the initial change to the IQD-USD rate will be back to pre-1450. Like 1180 or close. That change has been particularly stressful for average Iraqis. And that gives Iraq the benefit of changing the exchange rate to show their citizens but all they are really doing is taking it back to historical programmed rate. After that happens, I assume they'll stay there for a bit and then... But if nothing else it will be very interesting.
  9. So, at some point AFTER the budget has been approved and, presumably, been enacted, the NOC Law will be submitted for a vote. It would appear, especially if the HCL is not itself in the budget, it should likely be approved by the end of this month. THEN... We wait for word about the submission of the NOC (HCL) Law. So don't freak when they pass the budget without a corresponding HCL. We've just been told that will come, probably on its own, afterwards.
  10. Along with Adam, and a number of others, I agree that passage of a binding HydroCarbon Law, is crucial. Whether or not that explicitly occurs in the 2021 budget or not. If it is part of the budget, great! If not, then a passed budget is all well and good, but not super relevant to us. I want to see incontrovertible evidence of the HCL passage and implementation. Once that's done, then the CBI (not GOI) can decide how they will implement a move off of a centrally programmed currency. So don't anyone lose focus on this, or lose heart if the budget doesn't explicitly cover this. Our focus is passage of an actual HC LAW (not Agreement). Once that's in place, its time to pay attention. Until then, its steady as she goes (as admittedly frustrating as that can be)
  11. Gee, THIS NEVER happens: Less than a week before voting on legislation which contains HCL language: All of a sudden you start seeing lots of articles about Kurdistan or articles generated by Kurdistan. Complaints by Kurdistan about their share. Claims by various committees about why the budget vote must happen on date X. Last minute delay of voting on budget/legislation, moving to Date Y. Several more delays. This has already happened, this time around. What hasn't happened this time, yet: Kurds increasingly belligerent and demanding about what they do and don't want. A few additional voting delays. Final passage of a sort of budget, with no HCL language included. Let's hope that this time those last three points don't happen, but I am getting strong Charlie Brown/Lucy football vibes here. I imagine *something* will be passed by the end of March. We'll see exactly what.
  12. Whaaaaa??? Shocker! But we were told otherwise! How could this possibly be...🤔 "When the RV's due, but there's no HCL..." "Who you gonna call?" Uhh... KurdBusters???
  13. Ummm. How far "in the past"? Are they saying they do not want a situation where the IQD to USD rate returns to pre-war (pre-2003) levels? Or the more recent past? Are they sort of validating Adam's continuing guidance that an RV is more likely to result in a 10c-20c valuation and not a "dropped zeroes" 85c+ or even a "1 IQD = 1+ USD" valuation? I don't even care any more. Just issue the RV at whatever level you are comfortable with and get it over with so I can begin to plan/react accordingly. I mean, the Iraqi RV *is* all about *my* financial convenience and increase, right?
  14. I encourage interested readers to check out this article: THE EMBASSY Iraqi Kurdistan Has A Leadership Problem By Michael Rubin Published 2 days ago Masoud Barzani, Iraqi Kurdistan’s long-time president, handed the reins of power to eldest son Masrour Barzani in 2019 when he shifted nephew Nechirvan to a more symbolic presidency and installed Masrour as prime minister. In doing so, he sought to preserve his dynasty. In reality, his choice of Masrour may condemn it. Masrour’s chief qualification for his job was always genetic. Masoud failed as a father, however. Rather than socialize his children, he isolated them. He sponsored a special school for his children and their cousins that prevented them from developing meaningful relations with other Kurdish elites let alone ordinary citizens. Nor did Masrour ever excel at studies. In Kurdistan, family connections were enough. When he studied at American University for a bachelor’s degree, he remained isolated—living in a luxury off-campus apartment. What he lacked in academic aptitude, he made up for with the accompanying checks that funded a fellowship at the university. Masrour’s isolation and poor socialization have led him both to become incredibly thin-skinned. The tremendous power he has in his hands as head of the intelligence service has transformed his office into the Kurdish equivalent of the famous Twilight Zone episode in which townsmen and family become overly solicitous of an omnipotent six-year-old as they live in fear of his irrational anger. Masrour’s outbursts, both as prime minister and before, have long undercut Kurdistan and its image. In 2005, for example, he arrested critic and dissident journalist Kamal Sayid Qadir. Had he ignored Kamal’s criticism, few Kurds and fewer outside Kurdistan would ever have heard his name. Masrour’s pettiness ended up undercutting an expensive advertising and branding campaign to depict Kurdistan as a democratic oasis in the region and to lure investment. That same year, Kurdistan Democratic Party activists operating at Masrour’s behest burned a competitor’s office just days before a White House meeting where President George W. Bush and Vice President **** Cheney were meeting with Iraqi political representatives. Suddenly, an incident that ordinarily mid-level diplomats would address quietly became a subject of discussion in the Oval Office. In 2010, Masrour’s security forces kidnapped and executed a young student after he published a poem lampooning Barzani family corruption. Again, the incident made international headlines and only called more attention to regional corruption. Over the following decade, that corruption and Masrour’s efforts to create a security state have put Kurdistan on the brink of bankruptcy. In the past week, the Kurdistan Regional Government had the opportunity repair its image. A new administration is in the Oval Office was already primed to sympathy for Iraqi Kurds. After an Iranian-backed group launched a rocket barrage on the Iraqi Kurdish capital Erbil, Kurdistan received international sympathy. Senior officials, not only from the United States but globally, called Masrour. Rather than capitalize on such goodwill, Masrour undermined it. His court had sentenced five journalists and civil society activists whom Masrour’s government had previously detained on charges of planning an illegal protest to six years in prison. This was not simply a case of poor timing by sclerotic courts on bureaucratic auto-drive. Defending himself against criticism of yet one more overreaction, Masrour channeled his inner-Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and insisted the journalists were actually spies. By transforming the charges from violations of the journalism law to national security violations, he demonstrated the politicization of the courts. The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad issued a statement gently rebuking Masrour and urging freedom of the press. Nechirvan, always more sophisticated than his cousin and attune to international sentiment, sought damage control and announced an appeals court would take up the case and he would personally monitor the process. Rather than allow others to rescue Masrour from a crisis of his own making, Masrour became petulant, tweeting, “I strongly urge everyone to respect the judiciary system in the Kurdistan Region and to let it do its job independently and without interference.” And so it goes: To salve his own ego, Masrour once again undercut Iraqi Kurdistan’s ability to work productively with the West at the time when it is desperate to do so. Ordinary Kurds will be the ones to suffer, but even they have their limits. If Masoud wants the Barzanis to survive in power, it is long past time for a family intervention and a family shuffle that will remove Masrour Barzani from powers he is not mature enough to wield. Now a 1945 Contributing Editor, Michael Rubin is a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). https://www.19fortyfive.com/2021/02/iraqi-kurdistan-has-a-leadership-problem/ I was, frankly, unaware and uninformed regarding the leadership of the Kurds. I just remember that every time there seems to be an opportunity to move forward with improved financial integration between the Kurdish region and the rest of Iraq, it always seemed like the Kurds were throwing some wrench into the works at the last moment. This article might provide some indication as to why. Unfortunately, to (likely) get to an RV, we will need to see an actual HCL (emphasis on the "L": Law). To reach an HCL we will need to see a unified and helpful association between the Kurds and the rest of Iraq. This will require some sort of rapprochement between the two parties. If Barzani is even 1/2 as bad as depicted, it will be very difficult to get to that starting point. I know some might say, "Well, money talks and that's what the Kurds are about, just like anyone else". That works if the PM of your country/region isn't immature, irrational and incapable. In the end, if his ambassadors and legislators fear him enough, they'll do what they're told. Not necessarily what they know to be in the best interests of their region. I have many vested reasons to hope that the article in question is overstating their case. Time will, of course, tell.
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